Sebastien Labrecque

At the national level, the inflow of non-permanent residents ⬇️ for the 3rd straight quarter. At the same time, the quarterly outflow of non-permanent residents hit its highest level since Q4, 2021. Recent policy changes by the federal gov should further accelerate these trends.

After a surge in the inflow of non-permanent residents in Alberta in the last three quarters, the number of interprovincial in-migrants once again exceeded the number of international immigrants and the inflow of non-permanent residents in Q2, 2024.

Ontarians are still leaving for other provinces. #Alberta remains their #1 destination, but there is a new #2. British Columbia overtook Atlantic Canada as a destination for Ontario interprovincial migrants. We must go back to Q4, 2020 for the last time this happened.

At the national level, interprovincial migration has come down from the record levels of 2022. However, similar to Q1 #, the data for Q2, 2024 is still much higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Major trends continued in Q1, 24 (e.g., Ontario's interprov migration deficits & Alberta gaining residents from other prov (mainly Ontario & BC). An emerging trend in #Alberta: For the 3rd quarter in a row, non-permanent residents inflows exceeded interprov in-migrants. #CdnEcon

Lots to unpack in the newest interprovincial migration data. Lower numbers for Q3-4, 2023 signaled that we might revert to the levels recorded before the pandemic in 2019. However, interprovincial migration in Q1 2024 (green bar) was quite strong and well above 2019-2022 levels.

Looking at other CMAs in Eastern Ontario, #Ottawa fared very well in May on both a MoM and a YoY basis. Kingston, Peterborough and Belleville all saw #Housing starts contract MoM in May. Compared to May 2023, Peterborough and Belleville also saw lower starts in May 2024.

#Ottawa: after 3 bad months, #Housing starts rebounded in May. Ottawa recorded its highest SAAR starts of 2024. Ottawa CMA saw its working age 15+ population⬆️4.1% YoY in May 2024 based on LFS data. With that growth, we cannot afford many months of low housing starts. #OttNews

🧵on new #Housing starts data for May. Overall, we see encouraging signs for Canada and #Ottawa 🇨🇦: 2024 starts have been over 2023 levels every month so far except for April. Five months in, SAAR starts are well over the latest CMHC Outlook baseline forecast for 2024 (224,485)

The Bank of America clearly didn't watch Macklem's appearance before the HoC Standing Committee on Finance in May... We'll likely see a rate cut tomorrow, but I expect the tone of the decision will be overly cautious and non-committal to prevent excessive rate optimism #CdnEcon