Crypto, NFT, AI, developer, trader.
California
Joined January 2022
- Tweets1.7K
- Following38
- Followers21
- Likes34
LegolasXBT retweeted
Hello Mr. Legum,
You’ve built a website that relies on a specific interpretation of “potential” in the context of federal spending it. While @Oilfield_Rando mentioned this earlier, I went a step further and confirmed these definitions myself.
In the USASpending rpt.awards_search table, larger federal contracts often specify two key fields:
🔹 ordering_period_end_date (labeled as the “Potential End Date”)
🔹 base_and_all_options_value (labeled as the “Potential Award Value”)
Contrary to everyday usage of “potential” (which implies something uncertain or unlikely as your website suggests), “Potential Award Value” in these databases represents a contract’s maximum cost if all negotiated options are exercised. It is not a mere “possibility”; it’s the upper bound of contractual spending authority.
And in practice, contractors squeeze these agreements to their fullest extent, because why would they give up money?
To prove this point, I ran a SQL query to extract the first 60,000 contracts expiring in 2024 with outlays over $1 million and with no ordering period extending beyond 2024. Out of these awards, zero contracts had an outlay less than its Potential Award Value, and the vast majority vastly exceeded their Current Award Amount.
So, yes, I concur with @Oilfield_Rando - @DOGE, if anything, is underestimating their own savings.
Gotta admit an account named "Gas Biz Guy" shitting on EVs isn't exactly unpredictable 🤣
No hate bro just funny is all
This quoted post is unavailable.
LegolasXBT retweeted
RIP Progressivism: 2015-2024
When the history books of the progressive era are written, the Sanders campaign will be the first chapter and the Watermelon Freaks will be the final chapter.
We were a quirky, but well meaning political movement that started as a push for universal healthcare and better treatment for minorities.
The problem was, we never came up with any mechanism to regulate our worst ideas. Slowly over the next decade, they became more and more ridiculous. Abolish the police is a great example. Or when corrupt Black Lives Matter leaders were literally stealing $30 million using the name of George Floyd, we didn’t wanna hear anything about it, let we accused of being racist. If declaring your gender with no medical transition and walking into a women’s locker room seemed absurd, it would avoid a lot of headaches to just be silent about it.
Credible progressive leaders like myself were socialized into saying silent, and like a dementia patient, the movement became more and more untethered from reality.
We became such easy, stupid marks, not just unwilling to fact-check anything, but certain we didn’t even have to debate our ideas with the public. And such, we had no defenses when an actual conman came in to hijack our movement.
Funded by Qatar, Russia, and China, foreign antisemites took legitimate criticism of a war, and turned it into a full on war on Jews at home. They formed an uneasy alliance with Islamists, and promised that self-immolating our own country would be the solution to all of our problems. Hell, we became so brainwashed that actually self immolating was praised in the progressive culture.
A steady stream of social media addicted personalities lined up to uncritically bleat nonstop hate for Jews. And like the block that crashes the whole Jenga tower, the public has had enough. Everyone sane is fleeing for the lifeboats while the true believers play on as the Titanic sinks.
The brain cancer is terminal. The patient cannot be saved. Ideas cannot die, and progressive policy ideas will live on. But they will have to wait for a vehicle capable of intellectual honesty and tactics to deliver them.
LegolasXBT retweeted
We imagine if there’s any conscience left in Biden‘s mind, he’s probably deeply sad. His better son died, his current son is a crackhead felon abuser who shamed his legacy, his party is embarrassed by him, his wife is worried about his health, he’s about to hand the country to his perceived enemy, and worst of all, he has to make peace with all of this if he wants to have an easy end of life. As he hugs his son here, the weight of all this must be on him, and he has to accept it all. It’s a messed up situation. Very sad.
Would not use Airbnb nowadays.
Hotels > @Airbnb, a horror story 🫠
It’s 2:30am in London. Flight delayed 3 hours. Raining.
I message our host that we’re going to miss the check in window. There’s a fee. Weird since it’s self check in, but ok
We get to the airbnb and the lockbox doesn’t work.
Rain, rain..
LegolasXBT retweeted
The dirty secret that confounds all modern attempts at improving outcomes by social engineering is that the low-IQ, the poor, and the badly behaved now pretty much coincide, statistically speaking.
Why? Because free markets and meritocracy mine the virtuous poor for people who can be productive and useful; they uplift and become, at the least, petits-bourgeoises (and tend to marry each other rather than other bottom-quintilers). Which is an excellent thing, but...
...it means your bottom quintile loses those people. Its average IQ drops. Its average time preference goes up. Its propensity to criminality actually rises.
Now run this effect over several generations. Your civilization gets wealthier and more successful because it's using its human capital optimally. But your bottom quintile gets...worse.
The US is the wealthiest society in the world, with the longest history of meritocratic idealism. The idealism produced the wealth, of course, but it also means we were the first to mine out our deserving poor. I estimate that it happened around 1970 when the last pockets of dirt-floor poverty in Appalachia were cleaned out.
This effect also means that all policy interventions intended to better the lives and prospects of the bottom quintile have decreasing returns over time. Their problems become progressively more intractable and more genetically loaded
The bitter paradox - for which I do not have an answer, only a clear view of the problem - is that a meritocratic society inexorably produces increasing stratification long fault lines defined by innate traits like IQ.
LegolasXBT retweeted
BREAKING: BLOOMBERG HOSTS DECLARE THAT THE “ERA OF THE MEMECOIN IS BACK” - NAME DROP $WIF (@dogwifcoin) AND $PEPE (@pepecoineth)
This guy is not wrong, and I like LTC's speed and low fees when I used it for payments in the past. Yet LTC price remains low.
Maybe utility doesn't drive price up after all, store of value does...
TRUTH.
1. Litecoin is decentralized
2. Doge helps secure Litecoin
3. Litecoin is #1 on BitPay
4. Litecoin has 100% uptime
5. Litecoin is #1 alt on ATMs
6. The founder doesn’t have a stash
7. Litecoin has layer-1 scaling w/ SegWit & MWEB
8. Litecoin is secure & dominant in Scrypt
9. Litecoin had the fairest launch
10. Litecoin is massively undervalued
11. Litecoin is a perfect complement to Bitcoin
12. Litecoin is over 12 years old
13. Litecoin is deemed a digital commodity by CFTC
Def not defending a pirate site if what vercel CEO said is true (that it's a paywall bypass site)
But just a general takeaway is to not use one company as a one stop shop -- use A co for domain registrar, B co for DNS, C co for hosting, D co for emails, etc
12ft is down, @vercel banned me
No warning on a Friday night, while I was on vacation.
Worst yet, they took down all my projects and confiscated all my domains.
No response from support.
Is this what it takes?
I heard one homeowner hired a consultant to deal with a similar situation.
The homeowner wrote a new lease to the "consultant". The new renter (the consultant) moved into the house and parked himself there to live with the squatter. He had valid lease paperwork signed by the homeowner when the police arrived.
The police said it was a civil matter and left. So now the squatter had to deal with a new person (who was much bigger) in the house. The squatter got out because he couldn't handle the tension that the consultant created by being there constantly applying pressure to GTFO.
The the house was turned back over to the home owner within 24 hours.
This needs to be reposted until absolutely everyone sees this and understands it.
Stop crime.
I’ve lost all patience with the gaslighting about shoplifting—it’s just 1% of revenue, it doesn’t hurt anyone but rich investors, blah blah blah.
Using numbers from Lowe's 2022 10-K, here's a quick analysis showing how destructive it really is, including killing 1,500+ jobs. 👇
(1) For retail chains, 1% of revenue is an absolutely massive number. In the case of Lowe’s, inventory shrinkage—most of which is consumer shoplifting or employee theft—cost the company $997M in 2022.
That’s right: One company lost nearly a billion dollars from theft. In one year. If that $1B were the revenue of a company in its own right, it would be large enough to be publicly traded.
And, again, this is just Lowe’s. Think of the scale if you added in Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and all the grocery stores and drug stores across the country. Imagine how many billions of dollars that must be.
All of a sudden, 1% doesn’t seem that trivial anymore, does it?
(2) Even if you still believe that 1% of revenue isn’t that big a deal, let’s look at it in terms of earnings. In 2022, Lowe’s generated $11.9B in EBITDA and $6.4B in net income. That $1B in shrinkage represents 8.4% and 15.5% of those numbers, respectively.
In other words, for every $6.50 in earnings for Lowe’s shareholders, they’re losing roughly $1.00 due to theft.
If Lowe’s were able to eliminate all shrinkage, EBITDA would grow more than 8%, and net income would grow 11%. The company would generate an extra $710M in earnings, all without having other sell a single extra item or grow sales by even a dollar.
(3) For investors, that $710M of foregone net income is massive. In 2022, Lowe’s paid out 36.8% of net income in the form of shareholder dividends—actual cash payments to its owners, including mom-and-pop retail investors and the pension funds that represent a large portion of its shareholder base. Assuming that Lowe’s kept the same payout ratio, eliminating shrinkage would create another $261M available for dividend payments.
(4) More important, though, is the earnings that Lowe’s doesn’t distribute—the cash they reinvest back into their business. In 2022, Lowe’s had $1.8B in capex, in the form of new stores, improvements to existing stores, and other strategic initiatives. This $1.8B represented 28.4% of earnings.
If Lowe’s kept the same ratio and applied it to an incremental $710M in net income, that would represent an extra $202M available for capex. It costs Lowe’s about $22M to build and stock a new store, and the company has an average of 173 employees per store (inclusive of employees working in corporate-overhead positions).
In other words, stolen merchandise is costing the company the opportunity to build another nine stores, which would create 1,500+ new jobs.
(5) To summarize: $997M in shrinkage turns into $710M in foregone net income. This foregone net income, using 2022’s ratios, means $261M in shareholder dividends missed out on, nine stores not built, and 1,500+ jobs not created.
So you really want to say that shoplifting isn’t a big deal? You really want to justify it and say that it’s a victimless crime?
Go tell that to the senior citizens not getting the dividend checks that they otherwise would have received. Go to nine mid-size towns without a Lowe’s and tell them that. Go find 1,500 people looking for retail jobs and tell them that the only people getting hurt here are fat-cat shareholders.
Really, go on.
