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Current IPEV (In-Person Early Voting) Map of Florida
#Florida #FLSen #FLGov #Midterms2022 #Midterms #MidtermElections
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So people know: Republicans overwhelmingly lose EV in Iowa. Like I think Mail was D+33 in 2024 even just by party ID.
But Reps nearly leading actual IPEV is something they've only done once: 2024.
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I am a proud and loyal Democrat. I served in President Clinton’s National Security Council and worked for Madeleine Albright at the State Department. I ran for Congress as a Democrat, have voted Democratic all my life, and expect to continue doing so.
But I would never vote for Abdul El-Sayed. In my judgment, he does not represent the values of our party or our nation. I urge my fellow patriotic Democrats in Michigan to leave the Senate line blank or vote for Republican Mike Rogers.
This is an exceptional case, and I do not make this recommendation lightly. We can support Democratic majorities nationally while refusing to support a candidate who violates our core values. Loyalty to our party should strengthen our principles, never require us to abandon them.
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Democrats were basically even on the *final* early vote in Iowa in 2024 (deficit of under 15,000 ballots out of 680,000) and they ended up losing by 220,000 votes. Worst loss in Iowa for either party by margin and votes since 1972. They convinced themselves that Harris could compete in that state because the early vote was even and the polls, notably Selzer, said she could compete. They were totally wrong. Election Day turnout was strong and the polls in Iowa were wrong just like they always are. Selzer's final poll was usually the exception to Iowa polling (and midwest polling in general), and they were very very wrong on preference. They were most notably wrong with OLDER voters.
Nevertheless, Democrats are convincing themselves that polls are right (especially on preference) for the first ever when Trump is president or on the ballot, and also telling themselves that there will be a turnout collapse on election day for Republicans when they were very wrong about that in 2024 everywhere; and in 2022 in red states. I.e., no one expected DeWine and Reynolds and DeSantis to blow out the competition. And in 2020 as well.
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I just wanna comment and say that this all suggests the likely voter electorate in 2026 in this red state, and similar states, is something of a mix between 2022 and 2024. Republicans did very well in both those years in red states. Democrats really need the vote to look like 2018 and not 2022 or 2024 or a mix thereof, and they're not even close to 2018—because Republicans look like they are building on their high turnout in 2022 and not receding down from 2024 like Democrats did in 2022 from 2020 in red states.
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🚨 NOW: Florida early voting is R+14 today so far and new polling suggests ELECTION DAY could be MORE RED than previously expected
TODAY:
🔴 REP: 46.4% (+14.2)
🔵 DEM: 32.2%
GOP lead statewide is now OVER 50K BALLOTS before the evening rush, and Byron Donalds is the HEAVY FAVORITE on Polymarket to keep Florida red ☀️
We want the early voting to be as red as possible anyway so election day becomes easier.
DO NOT VOTE FOR SOCIALISTS! Vote red DOWN BALLOT. That's how Florida became the best in the nation!
polymarket.us/squad/join/j9s…
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Democrats just got caught red-handed.
NYT reports Peltola’s team spent months hunting for another “Dan Sullivan” to plant on Alaska’s ballot and siphon votes from the real GOP senator. Classic leftist sabotage when they can’t win straight up.
Holy f*ck 👀👀
And when I say things like that, it means it literally is impressive, being a data nerd. Wow.
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There's nothing really interesting going on in TX today. R counties surging, Dallas crashing even more.
Dallas looks like it'll be well under 40k votes today. Lots of the South Dallas precincts gonna be putting in record low turnouts today
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Based on the N+ Univision Florida poll on voting methods and current Florida voter registration:
Projected Florida Election Day Electorate
🔴 Republicans: 56%
🔵 Democrats: 24%
🟡 Independents: 20%
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Cuyahoga county (Brown+49) has finished its mail ballot period. Applications will no longer be processed.
Boy was it a stinker too. In 2022: 149k, 2024: 179k
My LOWEST expectation was 128k this year.
120969 - 2170 rejections = 119k (-30k)
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Hispanic voter turnout has surpassed presidential levels in Texas.
My church in Dallas has over 500 Latino Christians. Guess who they voted for? Definitely not Talarico.
Stop buying the nonsense that Latinos love the democrats.
It couldn’t be further from the truth.
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I’m entering a new chapter politically, and I won’t pretend that it comes without reservations.
For the first time, I’m preparing to vote Republican. I’ve grown to appreciate Donald Trump more than I ever expected, and seeing his treatment of someone I admire deeply, Nicki Minaj, has contributed to my changing perspective. ❤️🔥
But I’m still a Black man in America.
I know what racism looks like. I know what prejudice feels like. And I know there’s a difference between embracing an individual Black person and genuinely embracing the Black community.
That’s where my fear lies.
I’ve become disillusioned with Democrats. While I recognize their acknowledgment of generations of racial oppression, I remain deeply dissatisfied with what I believe has actually changed for our communities.
And as I consider a different political direction, I carry a question that matters far more to me than party loyalty:
Will I be accepted as a Black man, or merely welcomed as a Black man who votes Republican?
Because those are two very different things.
I want equality. I want opportunity. I want the Black community to experience genuine respect and acceptance, regardless of political affiliation.
I’m willing to reconsider my politics. I’m willing to give another party a chance. But I’m not willing to abandon my concern for my people in the process.
My vote may change. My identity doesn’t. And my expectations of America shouldn’t have to. 💪🏾❤️🇺🇸
@NICKIMINAJ 🔥❤️
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🗳️ Florida Vote By Mail + In Person Early Voting Update, October 27, 2026, 3:00pm. Over 160,000 ballots in this update. That's the second most for a single drop so far. Republicans lead by 33,866 votes statewide (R+0.99%). They are currently having their best Early Vote performance today at R+16.51. Yesterday, Democrats ate into a similar margin later in the day. 3.4 million ballots have been cast!
Statewide Total Votes:
🔴 REP: 1,369,636 (40.14%)
🔵 DEM: 1,335,770 (39.15%)
🟣 OTHER: 706,348 (20.70%)
160,793 new VBM + IPEV ballots across 67 counties have been counted, with the largest update coming from Broward County.
Latest Drop:
🔴 REP: +71,961 (44.75%)
🔵 DEM: +54,897 (34.14%)
🟣 OTHER: +33,935 (21.10%)
🟢 TOTAL: +160,793
🟢 Total Votes Statewide: 3,411,754
🔴 Republicans lead statewide by 33,866 votes, an increase of 17,064 votes compared to the previous lead.
🔴 This is a 0.48% move toward Republicans.
jaysonfrascatore.github.io/F…
