Please: no porn, no crypto, trading or investment talk. don’t ask me to move to another platform to communicate.
Joined October 2015
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I’m seeing a lot of emotion and hyperbole around Trump’s suggestion that those who actually depend upon the Strait of Hormuz participate in securing it. This is a microcosm of the entire “alliance” (entitlement) structure of the dying world order (good riddance.)
Let me be clear, the U.S. does not need the Strait of Hormuz opened. Trump can restrict petroleum exports from the U.S. and maintain control of Venezuelan oil thereby reducing U.S. prices BELOW what they were before the Iran conflict, even with the strait closed.
This will see the U.S. economy return to over 4% growth, while the rest of the globe, allies and adversaries alike go into deep recession.
U.S. bases around the world can be closed or reduced to skeleton crews saving $trillions of U.S. taxpayer dollars. The western hemisphere can be cleaned up and brought into the fold, and the U.S. can sign cooperation agreements with China, South Korea, Japan, and India to secure their supply routes for substantial compensation. Europe can secure their own supply lines or PAY the U.S. to do it, and we’re talking about paying market value for the service in a highly competitive market, not the entitlement loss leading joke of the last century of abuse of American goodwill.
You can take umbrage at my characterization, but I’d prefer to hear a strategic argument against this focused on U.S. interests.
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That’s ridiculous on its face. The most popular car in the world is made by the same company led by the same man. Cybertruck failed, because it was too expensive relative to what was promised, and the design/style was too radical for mass adoption.
Cybertruck wasn’t a failure because it’s not a good vehicle. It’s a very good vehicle. Everyone who owns one loves it. It was a failure because of Elon’s Musks political actions and allegiances. Shareholders need to start looking inward. Tesla is spiralling downward and away from everything it stood for. The egomaniac at the helm is heading towards the iceberg because he believes his ship is unsinkable. He has done irreparable damage to the brand.
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Luke Wernle retweeted
I'll say this slowly for the retards in the back...
-Iran was already found to have missiles with a range much longer than anyone thought
-Iran HAD Uranium that was close to 60% weapons grade
-If Iran got a nuke and hit our east coast ~40 MILLION Americans could die
-Iran has PROMISED to nuke America
-Iran has been chanting "DEATH TO AMERICA" FOR 40 YEARS!!
So instead of talking shit about Trump nonstop just STFU and say THANK YOU!!!
Luke Wernle retweeted
The Trump Doctrine at Hormuz
Iran has not “won” the Strait of Hormuz. It does not control it. America does.
As President Trump said: “The United States of America controls the Strait of Hormuz , not Iran.”
The evidence is unmistakable. Nearly 9 million barrels per day are moving through the Strait, with another 5–7 million flowing through expanded regional pipelines and export facilities. Total flows are roughly 15 million barrels daily. On Sunday, Gulf exports exceeded 20 million barrels above pre-conflict levels.
Private trackers miss much of the U.S.-facilitated traffic with Gulf allies. The Department of Energy does not.
Iran’s attempted chokehold has backfired. Within two years, 50–70 percent of energy now routed through Hormuz could shift to protected pipelines.
America controls Hormuz today and is making it strategically obsolete tomorrow. That is the Trump national-security plan in action: destroy the adversary’s leverage, secure allied commerce, and turn a vulnerability into American dominance. The Trump Doctrine in action.
Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.
When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day.
On Sunday alone, over 20 million barrels left the Arabian gulf region, which is above the pre-conflict average.
Yes exactly
Contrast two kinds of men now arguing over America's future.
One looked at empty Texas scrubland and saw the largest building on Earth, then summoned $16.8 billion in capital, thousands of construction tradesmen, and 3,000 permanent minds to raise and run it. Before that he saw rockets landing upright when every expert called it fantasy, and electric cars people would line up to buy, and he materialized those too. His tools are reason, vision, and trade. Every dollar he commands was handed to him by a customer who got something better in return.
The other kind is the politician who could not pour one yard of that concrete. But he holds the one tool of his trade, the state's gun. He calls the building excess, drafts the wealth tax to seize its output, and names the seizure compassion and justice. Ask the senator demanding Musk's billions what he has ever built. His one skill is the forced transfer of what abler men have made.
When Terafab rises, understand what you are looking at. The unforced human mind, made visible at scale. The looters will still demand their cut, and the demand itself is the confession. Nobody loots an empty desert. Wealth must be created before it can be seized, and it is created by men like Musk.
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British natives? Do you mean celts? Saxons, Normans, Vikings… even your royal Hanovers came from elsewhere. If you don’t stand up to the current invasion, it won’t matter.
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No, the oligarchy is Putin’s now, as in he owns it. I did not concede causation. I simply chose not to dispute it, because it’s irrelevant. There were oligarchies in Russia, Europe, and the U.S. long before Putin or any of the current leadership came to power. That’s literally beside the point.
When I say that it’s certainly downstream now, I’m referring to the power structure. Putin leads the oligarchs; they do not lead him. The ones who try fall out of windows.
You’ve introduced no new information, and you’ve failed to even understand my position.
You’re concerned with causation and fixing the systemic problems in Russia long term. That’s laudable, but none of my concern. I’m concerned with fixing systemic problems in the U.S., also laudable and apparently not your concern.
The oligarchy was not western manufactured. It existed in the Soviet Union and before that under the Czars. Specific western players may have taken advantage of opportunities present during the changing of the guard, but these same players have preyed upon the U.S. and Europeans as well.
I did not claim that Putin’s fall improves things. I suggested that Putin’s fall will be an opportunity to attempt to improve things, just as any change in leadership is. Things could also get much worse. When the Soviet Union collapsed, there was a window of opportunity to improve things. How that played out is for Russians to decide, as will be how things go forward.
I’m not sure what you mean about thirty years of being wrong or reading a script. Who’s been wrong about what for thirty years? I think you’re suffering from confirmation bias. When I disagree with you and point out obvious facts, you assume you know my position and replay an argument you’ve had before.
I am not anti-Putin at all. I think he saved Russia from a horrendous potential decline and fragmentation. I think he led Russia brilliantly right up until February, 2022. I think the annexation of Crimea was a masterstroke with a ridiculously favorable cost:benefit, completely independent of any moral justification; it was good for Russia and Russians.
I think the invasion was a strategic blunder every bit as stupid as the Crimea operation was brilliant. I think Putin is now caught in the sunk cost fallacy and political double jeopardy and cannot withdraw.
My opinion is that if Putin does not find an off-ramp, it will be the end of him, and it will set Russia back more decades than the special operation already has.
Worth pausing on the shape of this exchange, because it’s more interesting than the object-level dispute.
You opened with: the oligarchy is Putin’s. I showed the class was built 1992–95 under Western-advised shock therapy, before he held national office. You conceded — chronologically and causally. But the conclusion survived the concession intact: ‘certainly downstream now.’
That’s the tell. When evidence changes and the conclusion doesn’t, the conclusion was never resting on evidence. It’s resting on a script — and the script is older than this argument: complex outcomes must have an author. A system produces something ugly, and the mind reaches for a face, because faces can be removed and systems can’t. It’s the most human move there is. It’s also the exact move that made the West misread Russia for thirty years — first ‘Yeltsin is the problem,’ then ‘the oligarchs are the problem,’ now ‘Putin is the problem,’ each time surprised when the successor inherits the same map, because the map was never in the man.
And here’s the part the script conveniently forgets: the oligarchy wasn’t just pre-Putin, it was Western-manufactured. Shock therapy wasn’t a policy that failed — the crisis was the transfer mechanism. Price liberalization wiped out savings, the population was too busy surviving to contest privatization, and the auction gavel came down while everyone was staring at empty shelves. Seven bankers walked away with half an economy, with Harvard advisors and IMF conditionality holding the door. Then — and this is the giveaway — when the Russian state finally subordinated that class, the same commentary tradition that built it discovered its conscience. Khodorkovsky takes Yukos for $300 million in an auction his own bank administers: entrepreneur. The state takes it back: kleptocracy. The label didn’t track the theft. It tracked which direction the assets were flowing. That’s not analysis, that’s accounting for one side of the ledger
So the script runs twice: first it authors the disaster and calls it reform, then it names the correction and calls it the crime. ‘Putin’s fall improves things’ is the third act of the same play — remove the dam, relabel the flood as liberation, and be surprised, again, when the successor inherits the map. Authored problems are solved by removal. Structural ones are inherited by whoever stands in the spot. Thirty years of being wrong in the same direction isn’t bad luck. It’s an error upstream of the facts.
By the way, I mark like on all engagements even if I disagree with the person. Because when I ring the bell, you get an electric shock and a food pellet. We both know what this is really about. Since you’re not convincing anybody, you are doing this for in group signalling reasons, not truth seeking. Put another way this isn’t a position it’s a membership card.
So congratulations; your anti-Putin good work🦮
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Luke Wernle retweeted
The media refusing to air President Trump’s speech to the nation exposing election fraud?
That’s not “journalism.” That’s a confession.
Nothing screams “we were in on it” louder than hiding the truth from the American people.
Wouldn’t you agree?!
We? You mean they. They have an undisclosed number of Optimus robots, and it is halfway through 2026. Seems the factory is being setup to begin mass production later this year. Does it really matter, whether it’s 10k, 50k, or 100k produced by year’s end? What is your point exactly? Are you simply desperate to throw shade on Tesla? Seems like the behavior of a small man. If you believe you have unique insight and Tesla will fail, short the stock and push your chips to the center of the table. If you’re hunting for clicks, be less boring.
Elon said we would have 50,000 Optimus robots in 2026.
We currently have zero.
For some reason - me pointing this out will make a lot of people really mad.
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He is correct. The West is no longer interested in negotiating with Russia, because a clear path to victory has become clear, and Russia does not negotiate in good faith. It is better to finish defeating Russia militarily.
🚨 Das ist brandgefährlich, wenn sogar ein langgedienter Diplomat wie der russische Aussenminister zu diesem Ergebnis kommt:
🇷🇺 Russland erwartet nicht mehr, daß westliche Länder wirklich an Verhandlungen zur Lösung des Ukraine-Konflikts interessiert sind, sagte gestern Sergei #Lawrow bedächtig im Rahmen einer Pressekonferenz.
„Wir werden dem Westen nicht länger glauben, daß er ausgehandelte Lösungen will. Unser Vorrat an Wohlwollen und Hoffnung ist vollständig aufgebraucht “.
💥 Was das bedeutet, ist offensichtlich. Keine Verhandlungen mehr, keine "Samthandschuhe" mehr ...
Und wer hat's in maßloser Selbstüberschätzung ruiniert ⁉️
Danke für nichts, Herr Merz ... Sie werden als Mahnung für die Zukunft in die Geschichtsbücher eingehen ...
🇷🇺 #Russland #Россия #Russia #Лавров
#Ukraine #Selenskyj #E3 #E5 #Kriegstreiber #EU #Bundesregierung #Feindbild #Militarismus #Merz
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I’ve heard nothing specific about resuming the blockade; this is critical.
As an Iranian, it’s clear President Trump is finally realizing what many American activists, the Iranian people, and his own top advisors like Marco Rubio and Scott Bessent have been right about all along:
We should not negotiate with the Islamic Regime.
They are evil incarnate. To the overwhelming majority of Iranians, no cost is too great to get rid of this regime—because the cost of letting them stay in power has already been far greater.
Trump gave the Islamic Republic a week to mourn Khamenei. Questionable enough. But the result was entirely predictable. They used every second of that pause to terrorize the strait again, attacking oil tankers traversing the Omani corridor in the Persian Gulf.
Trump nails it: these are scum. Sick people. A cancer that must be cut out early. No more breathing room. No more talks.
The regime just proved once again why it can never be trusted.
What do you think — should Trump have given them any pause at all?
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It is literally insane that genetic testing and confirmation of parentage is not done to obtain a birth certificate for every child, thus eliminating any ambiguity and many potential health risks. Fathers should insist upon this, BEFORE assuming any parental responsibility period. There is no legitimate reason not to do this, except to dupe unsuspecting men.
Idk why this is such an unpopular opinion but If a man pays child support, and later find out that the child isn't even his, the mother should have to pay all of it back
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Luke Wernle retweeted
Самая страшная пугалка Путина начинает сбываться.
Но не потому, что Запад изначально этого хотел.
А потому что Путин сам стал триггером этой пугалки.
Он годами говорил:
Запад хочет нас уничтожить.
Запад хочет всё отнять.
Запад хочет расчленить Россию.
Запад хочет сменить власть.
Запад хочет обезглавить страну.
Под эту пугалку он закручивал гайки, уничтожал оппозицию, объяснял бедность и мобилизовывал людей на войну.
А потом начал войну.
И именно война начала превращать пугалку в реальность.
Он говорил, что Запад хочет ослабить Россию - и сам запустил процесс ослабления.
Говорил, что Запад хочет отнять деньги - и получил замороженные активы и санкции.
Говорил, что Запад хочет изоляции России - и сам сделал Россию токсичной.
Говорил, что Запад хочет сменить власть - и сам сделал свою власть главным источником угрозы.
Это не пророчество.
Это поджог дома человеком, который всю жизнь кричал, что соседи хотят устроить пожар.
Путин не предсказал угрозу.
Он её произвёл.
Luke Wernle retweeted
Why Do They Want to Rule Us?
First, the simple answer. They want us to work for them. They have decided what is right, and so they must decide for you too.
They think they know best (they don’t…) – and so they feel they should impose it on everyone – by force if they don’t comply…
This is the shallow layer of tyranny – the bureaucrat’s confidence, the technocrat’s certainty. It is annoying. It is not yet the disease itself.
The deeper answer is sadder. They rule because they cannot build. A man who raises a family, who plants something and watches it grow, who creates value that outlives him – that man has no need to rule you. He is satisfied. He is finished with resentment before it starts. But a man with no family, no craft, no real creation to point to – he is left with only one lever: control. Ruling others becomes the substitute for building anything of his own. And that gives him a lot of motivation…
Resentment dressed as expertise. “I know better” – spoken loudest by those who have built least.
This is true of the man. It is also true of the nation.
A nation full of families, full of builders, full of people whose lives already satisfy them, has no appetite for empire. It does not need to rule its neighbors, because it already has what ruling was supposed to deliver – meaning, continuity, love, purpose. It is a matter of culture.
This is why Poland, for a thousand years, never sought to dominate. Our motto was never “power over others.” It was “za Wolność Naszą i Waszą” – for our freedom and yours. Not conquest. Solidarity. Fighting for other nations’ freedom – we did that a number of times, including for America, or Haiti…
We always assumed other peoples wanted what we wanted: a full life, a real family, a home worth defending – not a slave beneath them.
That assumption was our innocence. And at times our error (though not about America…)
Because not every culture is built the same way. Some civilizations are not organized around the satisfied family and the free man – they are organized around extraction, hierarchy, and the imposition of will. Where the builder’s life is absent, the ruler’s appetite fills the vacuum completely. Our great historicist Feliks Koneczny saw this a century ago: civilizations do not simply differ in customs, they differ in their root logic – some create, some extract, some build, some conquer. We kept projecting our own root logic onto peoples operating from an entirely different one.
The lesson is not to abandon “za Wolność Naszą i Waszą.” The lesson is to stop being naive about who shares it.
Build your family. Build your craft. Build something real – and you will find you have no time left to rule anyone. But do not mistake your own fullness for a universal condition. Some will always choose the whip over the workshop. Recognize them. Do not hand them the leash.
Luke Wernle retweeted
Here’s the part the new socialist marketing department never wants to discuss: America already tried the easy version.
Not the dictatorship version. Not the breadline version. Not the “CIA made the mill stop working” version. The easy case.
New Harmony, Indiana.
Robert Owen had money. He had land. He had housing. He had workshops. He had mills. He had orchards. He had cleared farmland. He had volunteers. He had intellectuals. He had the famous “Boatload of Knowledge,” because apparently socialism always thinks the missing ingredient is another expert with a clipboard and a theory about human nature.
No war. No embargo. No hostile army. No capitalist sabotage. No “late-stage capitalism” boogeyman hiding in the cornfield.
And still, the thing collapsed in about two years.
Why? Because incentives are undefeated.
When the skilled worker and the lazy theorist get the same reward, the skilled worker eventually figures out he is the mule in someone else’s moral pageant. When everyone owns the mill, nobody fixes the mill. When planners replace prices, waste stops being a mistake and becomes the business model. When responsibility belongs to “the community,” it quietly belongs to nobody.
That was socialism with training wheels, a helmet, a trust fund, and an entire town already assembled.
It still rode straight into a ditch.
So spare us the DSA rebrand, the Denmark cosplay, the red-button compassion routine, and the lecture from children who think history began when they opened TikTok.
New Harmony was the autopsy.
Cause of death: socialism.
(article below)
Something needs to be done about this, at the federal level if necessary.
Residents of the small San Joaquin Valley city of Avenal, California are furious
They voted in April to recall the majority of their city council, but the city council members are refusing to leave office
Over 75% of voters approved recalling all four officials. Kings County certified the results in May
Voters targeted Mayor Alvaro Preciado and Councilmembers Leticia Gamez, David Reynosa, and Pablo Hernandez. 4 of the 5 council seats
The city leaders who are refusing to leave are saying the recall was conducted unlawfully by Kings County Elections instead of the city itself and lacked proper city authorization
So they wanted to be able to give authorization for a vote to remove them…. Sure……
I looked into this and verified they should all be removed. Under California law, the recalled Avenal officials should be removed from office
California’s recall process is governed by the California Constitution (Article II, Sections 13-19) and the California Elections Code (Division 11, §§ 11000 et seq.).
Once a recall election is properly held and a majority votes “Yes” to recall an official, that official is removed from office upon certification of the results (Elections Code §11384)
The election was conducted by Kings County, the county elections official, which is standard procedure for local recalls when the city does not handle it itself. The county certified the results after verifying the process
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Exactly
Hier j'ai fait un post pour expliquer comment j'en suis arrivé à écrire sur la French Theory — ce post qui m'a valu un follow d'Elon Musk et de Javier Milei, et qui a fait 80 millions de vues.
Mais la French Theory n'était que la conséquence. La cause première, celle qui m'a poussé à creuser tous ces sujets aussi profondément, c'est l'économie.
Et quand je vois Lecornu déclarer qu'« il y avait un sentiment d'inégalité dans la répartition de la richesse, et que ça, il faut bien le traiter », je me dis qu'on tient là, en une phrase, tout ce qui ne tourne pas rond dans ce pays.
Parce que ça fait 50, 60, 70 ans qu'on SAIT. On sait exactement ce qu'il faut faire pour générer de la prospérité et rendre un pays fonctionnel. Ce n'est pas un mystère, ce n'est pas une opinion de comptoir, c'est démontré empiriquement sur tous les continents et à toutes les époques : libéraliser à fond, baisser les impôts au maximum, réduire le poids de l'État partout où c'est possible.
Pourquoi réduire l'État ? Pas par idéologie. Par mécanique pure.
Un bureaucrate est structurellement incapable d'allouer du capital efficacement. Ce n'est pas une question de méchanceté ni d'incompétence individuelle — c'est mathématique. Il n'a pas les signaux de prix, il n'a pas le retour du réel, il n'a pas de skin in the game. Il dépense l'argent des autres, pour des gens qu'il ne connaît pas, sans jamais payer le prix de ses erreurs. Hayek et Mises avaient tout expliqué il y a un siècle : sans marché, tu es aveugle. Tu ne peux pas calculer. Tu ne peux qu'improviser à l'échelle de 68 millions de personnes.
Résultat : des services publics qui s'effondrent, un pays qui décroche, des gens qui galèrent pour de vrai. Et devant ce désastre, on leur explique que le coupable, c'est le voisin qui a réussi. Que si l'hôpital ferme, si l'école ne forme plus, si tu n'arrives plus à te loger, c'est parce qu'il existe des gens riches.
C'est faux. Radicalement faux.
Le problème n'a JAMAIS été qu'il existe des gens riches. La richesse des uns n'a appauvri personne — un euro gagné en créant de la valeur n'est pas un euro volé à quelqu'un d'autre, c'est un euro qui n'existait pas avant. Le vrai problème, c'est un État qui te prend la moitié de tout ce que tu produis pour le cramer dans une machine qui ne fonctionne pas, puis qui vient te dire que ton sentiment d'injustice, c'est la faute du type d'en face.
Taxer davantage, ce n'est pas « traiter le sentiment d'inégalité ». C'est nourrir la bête qui l'a créé.
Le sentiment d'injustice est réel. Mais il ne vient pas de ceux qui créent la richesse. Il vient de ceux qui la confisquent pour la gaspiller — et qui ont besoin que tu regardes ailleurs pendant qu'ils le font.
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They’ve certainly mastered the art of defensive lad invasion 😂
🇷🇺 NE NOUS CONFONDEZ PAS AVEC LES AMÉRICAINS, NOUS SOMMES DES PROTECTEURS, PAS DES AGRESSEURS.
Vladimir Soloviev : "Nous ne nous battons pas pour conquérir des territoires, nous nous battons pour protéger des russes. C'est pour cela que nous menons une opération spéciale et non pas une guerre. Nous protégeons des russophones. Nous essayons de tuer le moins d'ukrainiens que possible. Personnellement, je ne ferais pas comme ça, c'est certainement une bonne chose que je ne sois pas à la place de Vladimir Poutine. Mais ne le sous-estimez pas, s'il doit prendre des décisions difficiles pour défendre la Russie, il les prendra" !
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In your reply to me, you blocked further replies for obvious reasons. You put forth the idea that Russia never wanted Ukrainian territory, just respect for ethnic Russians in the east. If that were the case, peace would be simple. Leave Ukraine and let ethnic Russians remain in a semi-autonomous region of Ukraine or return to Russia. Every ethnic Russian in Ukraine could have been gifted a wealthy estate in Russia for less than the invasion has cost Russia, not to mention a million Russian lives wasted in a country that is dying out demographically. Russia will soon cease to exist, and it won’t be because of war. It’ll be because Russian society and culture was allowed to fail and Russians became extinct.
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Europe will continue supplying Ukraine with ever increasing numbers of drones as well, so Russia can continue its self immolation indefinitely, or until the Russian people decide that they’ve had enough. Ukraine will be rebuilt using the fruits of western prosperity; Russia will not. If Ukraine and Europe do not back down, this can finally be the war to end all wars. Drones take mutually assured destruction to a granularity that precludes nonproliferation. Large scale wars of conquest can be made obsolete, here and now.
By now Russia got the memo on drones. They will be taking those lessons to heart and produce an insurmountable amount of drones in due time. Ukraine is leveraging their current advantage while it lasts and tries to cause as much economic and public support damage as possible.
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