Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Replying to @MrMan736452
Statistically speaking, most of the world is like this or worse. The only countries where you can insulate yourself from sub 90 IQ world is East Europe and East Asia, where even blue collar workers are near 100 IQ. I consider that a greater luxury than living by the beach.
By 2075 - AI and robotics may render sub 110 IQ work completely useless. What will 93% of the world do?
It will be an increasingly winner takes all world. Benefiting countries with: a high number of geniuses combined with a high median IQ to not get in the way of geniuses (by voting incorrectly, rioting or disturbing the peace in general).
Sub 110 IQ countries with natural resources will at least be useful colonies. But those without resources and a large, economically unproductive and aging population are rekted.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Bought $EWZS (Brazil small cap ETF) at $10.58 and $BLTN (Brazil 1 year government bond ETF) at $108, on top of $EWZ at $34.44.
BLTN is for holding BRL cash that can be rotated to equities in case of further opportunities. You are buying on a day where $USDBRL is +10% at around 13% YTM.
Small speculative position based off gut feel that many were caught offside and now overreacting. Don't blindly copy my trades. I don't know much about Brazil and other experienced Brazil traders I know are waiting.
Just bought some $EWZ (Brazil ETF) - purely based off vibes that a 20% overnight sell off is an over-reaction. Not financial advice.
Some of you know I sold off nearly all my stocks this summer but this seems like a fun short term bet. Now that Lula is politically secured, maybe he will make some statements to calm the markets. He has done that in the past when the markets plunged a lot.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Bought $EWZS (Brazil small cap ETF) at $10.58 and $BLTN (Brazil 1 year government bond ETF) at $108, on top of $EWZ at $34.44.
BLTN is for holding BRL cash that can be rotated to equities in case of further opportunities. You are buying on a day where $USDBRL is +10% at around 13% YTM.
Small speculative position based off gut feel that many were caught offside and now overreacting. Don't blindly copy my trades. I don't know much about Brazil and other experienced Brazil traders I know are waiting.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
The saddest characters on X are those whose entire identity is based around being highly political and negative - yet as grown men, lack the courage and sovereignty to post with their real identity.
They hide behind a digital burqa and live the life of Dostoevsky’s ‘underground man’ - sick and spiteful.
In some ways, I respect ‘zionist influencers’ more in the Dostoevskian sense that they are at least ‘men of action’ - unafraid to leave their basement and engage the world with their real identity.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Replying to @kunley_drukpa
The average Brazilian granny who just left money in a bank deposit outperformed 95% of traders on X - remarkable second world stuff
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
The remarkable pragmatism of a Chinese analysis of Brazil - Brazil is always going to be Brazil; a perennial mid-tier semi-failed civilisational state. Sink into the favela, don’t fight it, learn to let go and you’ll still be able to get healthy returns on your investments. Wow!
Once you remove the false hope that Brazil can be a first world country but also the emotionally charged negativity that Brazil will imminently turn 'third world' just because the candidate you like didn't win an election - you can truly appreciate Brazil for what it is (both as an investor or otherwise): a solid and sovereign second world country, with incredible funk music. God bless Brazil. $EWZ $PBR $BLTN $CIG $NU
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Replying to @BalticDanny
I was attacked by leftist and zionists at university - they tried to get me expelled and fired from my internship. They made it impossible for me to get a corporate job (especially during the peak woke era of 2010s) - because when any employer would google my name, their articles about me would come up (sexist, anti semitic, transphobic etc). So I never bothered with a corporate job and found another way.
So yes, I understand why some choose to post anonymously. Though I consider the best way to defeat them is to post publicly, when one can afford to do so, granted that 'free speech is not free'. I'm allowed to have my opinion and I never attacked you - in fact, I spoke well of your work.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Replying to @teodorio
The future of the West ought to be Romanian and Polish - not Indian.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Replying to @mmjukic
Without human QE, consumer prices in EE would be around 30% higher. On top of roughly 40% CPI in last 5 years.
30% higher prices as salaries needs to be higher to incentive local blue collars to work / not go abroad. Social benefits (increasingly high in countries like Poland) would also be cut to incentive people to work.
It’s easier to win elections by allowing human QE and pay / increase social benefits for low income voters.
Most voters will say they don’t want more migrants (even 60% of Polish far left voters say they do not want Indian migrants). But the reality is many prefer migration to higher prices or having to work more hours.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Replying to @kunley_drukpa
Thank you, Europeans, for trusting China, but I want to tell you:
Our intervention is useless, just like an egg—breaking open from the outside is food, breaking open from the inside is life.
Transformation, rebirth, can only happen from within. Don't place your hope in the external, in the ballots. When you step beyond the ballots and believe that Europe's true master is your own strength and courage, everything will change.
Keep going strong! 💪🇨🇳❤️🇪🇺
xitter.cf/Jueshengshenlan/status…
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
I'm not joking when I say that Serbia & non-EU Balkans is the freest part of Europe and possibly the world. Where you can be as pro or anti zionism as you want. Pro Russia or pro Ukraine. Where you can support woke ideology and sodomy or be an Orthodox ethno-nationalist.
Poland is high up there - but you can get arrested for 'holocaust denial', for being 'pro Russia' and liberals are trying to pass 'LGBT hate speech' laws too.
In the US, 1st amendment on paper protects free speech but de facto you will lose your job, get de-banked and face serious social consequences if you speak up on certain topics in the US.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
New video I filmed in Poland: how Poland can be a tax haven for wealthy Europeans. 0% corporate tax on re-invested profits. 0% capital gains tax via family foundation, OKI and IKE / IKZE. Revenue tax from 3% for self employment.
Poland works especially well for EU citizens who earn €100K to €2M gross per year. Full video on my YouTube (link in the post below).
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Property rights was invented over 2000 years ago in the Balkans. The West and Mitteleuropa has yet to adopt it.
'For that which is common to the greatest number has the least care bestowed upon it.' - Aristotle
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
It's been a while now since I declared that Budapest is no longer a rental yield play, like most European capital cites.
The days of 10% net rental yields, like I myself enjoyed when I first started investing there, are long gone. But investing there has also been "derisked."
In the case of Budapest specifically, the play is ongoing convergence with Western capital cities. Over time real estate prices will catch up with those of the West.
So effectively, you are betting on capital appreciation when investing in Budapest. In the video in the next post, with my buyer's agent Benedek, he shows us a specific area within a central district that he expects to experience more capital appreciation than average in the city.
Buyers have changed over time in Budapest
Initially the market attracted speculators.
Then came the pro-Orban crowd due to his seemingly conservative policies. Now most buyers are:
•Lifestyle buyers, including many Americans who want a European base with great connectivity, culture, and safety.
•Investors focused on "safe" capital appreciation due to Hungary potentially adopting the euro along with related convergence.
Check out the video in the next post👇
How does your home country find out you have a 2nd citizenship?
The most common ways:
1. You disclose it yourself
2. The new country notifies the old
3. Presenting the wrong passport at a border
4. Your name as a new citizen is gazetted publicly
5. Disclosure via third-parties (like banks)
6. Your neighbor snitching on you
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
'Every emerging market outside of Eastern Europe and Central Asia stays emerging forever, due to low median IQ - especially with robotics and AI' - @MacroJason
Eastern Europe really spoils you as an EM investor. You dip your toes into other emerging markets and be like 'What do you mean I can't buy at 3x lower valuations than developed markets and at the same time expect local median IQ + local private sector speed to be on par with US & East Asia?'
EE & East Asia was poor because of man made reasons (communism and war). All other EMs are poor mostly because of genetics.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
The demographics situation in the US is a lot worse than Europe and East Asia. Western Europe faces demographic replacement at a much lower level (~15% non native). Eastern Europe and East Asia faces de-population. Not great but for EE their diaspora may return and for East Asia there's robotics.
I'm not debating the politics of this - but looking at it from a macro investing and dollar hegemony perspective. If America ceases to be majority high IQ White - then it loses the reason why the world trusted it with reserve currency status in the first place. Do you think Chinese, Japanese & GFC investors (who own more US assets than anyone else) wants their capital to be at the whim of Hispanic & Black voters?
There is a large number of very smart and industrious White Americans. Maybe they will turn things around but it's looking very challenging:
1) Less than 20 years left, yet vast majority of Americans still don't see it as an issue. Even Republican politicians do not talk about demographic replacement. Trump is seen as 'too extreme' - though he's only deporting as many people as Obama.
2) Beyond the lack of political support, if you deport a large part of the blue collar workforce (Blacks & Hispanics largely do those jobs) - CPI will skyrocket. Rates will go up. Long duration bonds may sell off. Debt goes up even more.
3) There may be attempts to 'fix' this through non democratic means. This leads to serious political violence which leads to capital and talent outflow.
So if White Americans do nothing - then the US becomes a LatAm country in 20 years. If they try to do something - scenario 2 & 3 plays out. You should be aware of these risks if US assets forms the bulk of your net worth and retirement plans.
Note: a counter argument would be that most Hispanic Americans are generally fine. But hard to imagine their human capital to be on the same level as WASP (who are the group of Americans the world trusted with it's money).
More Western Europeans will move East - to the respective CEE country that is most compatible to their culture or language. I see a gradual increase with absolute numbers remaining low - unless some form of civil war or serious political violence breaks out in the West.
Even without civil war, I see Eastern European diaspora returning home in increasing numbers. In the 2030s, from Western Europe. In the 2040s, from North America. Things will get rough in the US as it becomes majority non White by mid 2040s.
The wealthiest Eastern European diaspora are in the US. They might start buying up Eastern European real estate - just like how American Jews buy Israeli real estate, not only for investment but as an insurance policy to have a safe haven to return to.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Early 2010s meta was hiring freelancers from Philippines and various 80 IQ countries. But AI has now demographically replaced Filipinos. LLM is eliminating 80 IQ monkey work.
In 2026 the secret is hiring Russian & Iberian world remote workers. Study the price to IQ & creativity ratio. Run the numbers. Your remote team should either be in Cabo da Roca or Ural mountains. Some may think this is a joke but this post offers insane alpha if you're a Founder.
In a certain Central Asian country, I switched from a half ethnic Russian contractor to a full ethnic Russian contractor. The quality and speed of work increased by at least 33% (though the previous person was great too).
This hack works well in LatAm and UAE too btw (countries with increasing young & educated RU pop post 2022) with even more pronounced results.
Jason - macro & investing retweeted
Increasingly - Central & Eastern Europe is more level headed towards Russia than the West is.
There was a pure virtue signaling EU parliament resolution to 'not recognize' Russia's newly elected Duma. Only 7% of MEPs voted against it. And all of them were from CEE region.
The European Parliament has refused to recognise Russia’s newly elected State Duma as a legitimate representative and legislative body, describing last month’s elections as a “sham” conducted “in an atmosphere of fear.”
The resolution passed by 482 votes to 41, with 39 abstentions. MEPs also called on EU member states to refuse official contacts with the new Duma’s deputies and impose additional sanctions on officials.





























