Yesterday was another stronger-than-expected day for Democrats in Florida's in-person early vote. The electorate will continue to get more Republican as the GOP did backload its turnout (moving from R+6.9 to R+7.6 yesterday), but the question is just how much further right it gets. At this point, I think we're probably looking at a high-single-digit final Republican electorate by total party registration (after considering mail, IPEV, and Election Day votes). Nothing insane like what we're seeing in North Carolina for Democrats, but still a meaningful improvement relative to 2024. That would keep Jolly within striking distance; he has a tough path, but certainly a plausible one. It would require a really strong performance with independents and other swing voters although he'd be helped by the national environment.