Florida Data and Redistricting Guy (He/Him). Lefty Lutheran. Politics, religion, and wrestling. Sign up for my substack!
Florida
Joined April 2021
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Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
PPP poll | 10/26-10/27 LV
US House 2026 | Florida’s 25th congressional district (Trump +9 | 2024)
🟦Jared Moskowitz 47% (incumbent)
🟥Scott Singer 41%
2024 recall vote: Trump +7
(Democratic pollster)
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings change
US Senate
Florida: Safe R —> Likely R
North Carolina: Lean D —> Likely D
South Carolina: Likely R —> Lean R
——
US Governor
Arizona: Lean D —> Likely D
Vermont: Likely R —> Lean R
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Rick Jackson will need to win over a Georgia electorate that would have backed Kamala Harris in 2024 and has since shifted further against the Trump administration.
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Scoop: DCCC expands the map in the final week of 2026 election
Committing $15 million to TV ads in 49 districts, including four first-time offensive spending moves in NV-2, FL-7, VA-5 and TN-5.
Projecting confidence in big House gains. Full list here: nbcnews.com/politics/trump-a…
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Glengariff has gone from one of El-Sayed’s worst pollsters, showing him down 10 in July, to his best likely-voter result yet: a 6-point lead over Rogers at 51%.
He’s also running virtually even with Benson, in what could be a narrative-buster.
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
CRYSTAL BALL: With a week left, 5 statewide rating changes:
#FLSen: Safe R -> Likely R
#NCSen: Leans D -> Likely D
#SCSen: Likely R -> Leans R
#AZGov: Leans D -> Likely D
#VTGov: Likely R -> Leans R
Plus 16 changes in the House.
From @kkondik and me: centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
absolutely crazy to say “faith and family most important to us.” their relationship literally began when she started cheating on her 2nd husband and busting her shit wide open for hannity in his basement. then he told his priest he wants to marry the side bitch, priest said no shot. so he left the church lmao.
Fox News stars Ainsley Earhardt and Sean Hannity tied the knot on Saturday at the historic Church of Bethesda-by-the-Sea in Palm Beach, Florida, returning to the place where Hannity proposed over Christmas in 2024.
Surrounded by their children, relatives and closest friends, the couple exchanged vows in a heartfelt ceremony that reflected their shared faith and the importance of family in their lives.
Get the full details on Ainsley and Sean's wedding and the personal touches that made their big day memorable: foxnews.com/media/ainsley-ea…
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Enough is enough. @AshleyMoodyFL you have sent folks to my bookstore to harass my family and the students that intern there. Now your constant rhetoric is causing people to threaten us. You don’t like the history we highlight, fine. But your rhetoric is jeopardizing our safety.
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Florida early voting update:
Early in-person turnout among Republicans has fallen off a cliff.
At R+0.4, the total early vote in the state is about as blue as 2018, 5 points higher than this point in 2022, and 10 points higher than in 2024.
gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-ea…
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
The fact that JD Vance wrote an entire book about growing up in a neglectful, abusive Ohio home and chose to side with Vivek over someone with a similar experience is so telling about what a soulless, satanic wretch he is.
Asked Ohio Dem gov nominee Amy Acton today about this answer from President Trump.
"The facts are: I was removed from custody from my mom. She was not well. From even a very young age, my brother and I experienced a lot of abuse and neglect, even before my stepfather. But my stepfather was not a good person, and it got worse then. He was indicted in a grand jury. He was a fugitive, and they left together."
"I have not seen her since I was 12 years old in a courthouse. So this is a sad story."
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
This Baptist church in Woodstock, Georgia runs citizenship and English classes. Christian churches even in conservative areas continue to embrace diversity. Trumpism is a secular movement.
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
I hate this condescending whataboutism. Yes Bret, if the interior minister of Japan was a right-wing religious zealot using US taxpayer money for ethnic cleansing, they would probably be better known.
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
One of South Florida's most prominent pols, @ShevrinJones, defends @AngieNixon and lays into @CBSNews for its original characterization of her remarks.
Shame on you, @CBSNews! You misrepresented @AngieNixon’s answer, then offered an editor’s note instead of an apology. You demand accountability from everyone you cover. Hold yourselves to the same standard. Angie deserves an apology. Your audience deserves accurate journalism.
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
It’s somewhat hilarious to me that people point out the 🏳️🌈 in my bio as a “gotcha.” I know it’s there. I put it there. Why? Because I want the LGBTQ+ community to know that I—a Christian pastor—am an ally. That is more important to me than any “gotchas” from the theobros.
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Even after CBS News(max) deleted their tweet mischaracterizing this @AngieNixon answer about Cuba, @Fla_Pol publisher @PeterSchorschFL attacks her and accuses her of a “walk back” 🤔
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Her making him admit he’s a fan then calling Charlie Kirk a fucking pussy…she’s so hot omg
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Some Brazil elex notes (1/2)
• Flávio Bolsonaro has withdrawn his legal action against the election result
• Flávio's party has officially conceded
• Brazil's electoral body (run by a Bolsonaro ally) has declared Lula the winner
•.Lula won by 4.4m votes
• Only 40,000...
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Yesterday was another stronger-than-expected day for Democrats in Florida's in-person early vote. The electorate will continue to get more Republican as the GOP did backload its turnout (moving from R+6.9 to R+7.6 yesterday), but the question is just how much further right it gets.
At this point, I think we're probably looking at a high-single-digit final Republican electorate by total party registration (after considering mail, IPEV, and Election Day votes). Nothing insane like what we're seeing in North Carolina for Democrats, but still a meaningful improvement relative to 2024.
That would keep Jolly within striking distance; he has a tough path, but certainly a plausible one. It would require a really strong performance with independents and other swing voters although he'd be helped by the national environment.
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
My own novel, Nuremberg, Mississippi, reminds me that Dietrich Bonhoeffer would have had some thoughts on pastors like @howertonjosh. Just last week, he demanded that Texas Christians “grow up” and vote for Paxton.
Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱🎃 retweeted
Glengariff poll | 10/19-10/22 LV
US Senate Michigan 2026 (Black voters)
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 88%
🟥Mike Rogers 4%
Link to poll: detroitnews.com/story/news/p…
Glengariff poll | 10/19-10/22
(Likely voters)
US Senate Michigan 2026
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 51.4%
🟥Mike Rogers 45.1%
——
(Definitely plan to vote)
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 50.7%
🟥Mike Rogers 46.5%
Link to poll: detroitnews.com/story/news/p…
