@MarhelmData

Shipping data, commodities, and trade flow analysis. We provide a data platform, private discord, and weekly report. Made by investors, for investors.

 The Open Ocean
marhelm.com
Joined February 2023
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And 2025 is a wrap! Here were our 2025 picks Not pictured is Seabird Exploration, which was acquired mid year up > 50% (good for 100% TWR) Average pick returned ~50% for 2025, with 4/20 names providing a negative return Best pick returned > 300%, worst pick returned -23%
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Marhelm retweeted
Ferg
@trader_ferg1h
Deja vu with LNG...
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Three ballistic missiles/guided rockets struck Aden
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NEW: Multiple images and videos are emerging that indicate that Ansar Allah (Houthis) have struck facilities at the Riyadh/Dammam Highway, and the Duba/Tabuk Highway earlier today. The last 24 hours saw a flurry of early warning reports (finally) issued by Saudi Arabia for incoming missiles and drones that targeted Riyadh, Najran, and Wadi al-Dawasir. These attacks were launched by AA in direct response to the Saudi targeting of the Yemeni capital of Sana’a. General rule of thumb? If the Ansar Allah spokesman Yahya Saree announces in his daily report of Saudi strikes that Sana’a has been struck… Ansar Allah is going to attack Riyadh and Saudi energy infrastructure.
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El Salvador sends hundreds of elite special forces to Haiti to wage war on gangs and recover kidnapped Salvadorans
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Anti-ship CM/drones launches from Bandar Sirik, Hormozgan Province, Iran. Explosions in Hormuz Strait. U.S. facilitated daytime transits ongoing along the Omani Southern Lane.
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We were informed by diplomatic channels on October 8th that on the weekend of October 23rd the US would strike Iranian nuclear sites The recent diplomatic evacuations are linked to this event, which it is believed by the diplomatic community will transpire this weekend
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Marhelm retweeted
MenchOsint
@MenchOsint21h
⭕️ IRGC says two Supertankers (VLCC) were struck today in the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. The statement adds that they were abandoned, and their crews evacuated the ships.
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GMS: "With Gulf shipping risks and elevated insurance costs continuing to disrupt normal trading patterns, ageing tankers still have compelling reasons to remain employed rather than head for recycling."
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Motorist captures daytime drone strike on gas station in Kharkiv, Ukraine
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China’s seaborne crude imports are rebounding to 8.8M b/d in October, up from 7.5M in Q3 but still below 2025’s 10.6M b/d average. Saudi Arabia and Iraq are driving the recovery, but record freight costs threaten to squeeze Asian refinery margins and derail the rebound.
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300k barrels of Russian diesel is expected to arrive at the Port of New York around November 7
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ESPO sellers are demanding record premiums of $30+/bbl to China even as Kozmino–China Aframax freight plunges from $10M to ~$2M per voyage. With some Chinese refiners already losing money, how much longer can buyers absorb the premium?
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SCMP: Typhoon Champi causes deaths, hundreds of injuries in Taiwan Government offices closed, ships have fled to shelter, stock exchanged closed Emergency flood management activated in mainland China
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Marhelm retweeted
Tom Bike@tom_bikeOct 23
Typhoon Champi reaches Taiwan 🇹🇼 TODAY 👇
Focus Taiwan (CNA English News)@Focus_TaiwanOct 23
Strong winds & rough seas have battered much of Taiwan since Thursday as Typhoon Champi approaches. Huge waves pounded the coasts of Taitung & Hualien counties in the east, and on Friday morning powerful surf knocked a large crane into the sea at Fugang Fishing Harbor in Taitung
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Nearly $80M to ship US crude across the Pacific. The consequence: Asian orders for November delivery have plunged ~50% to 24–26M barrels, potentially the lowest in 7 years.
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Defense Production Act for oil, continued emergency releases globally, but it's a super glut and Hormuz flows have never been higher
Javier Blas
@JavierBlasOct 23
US President Trump invokes the Defense Production Act of 1950 to boost domestic oil production and refining. The order would allow the White House to use tax payer money to support oil projects (plus fast-track any project, including oil pipelines). whitehouse.gov/presidential-…

Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as...

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF WAR SUBJECT:       Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as Amended,

whitehouse.gov
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QatarEnergy is ramping up loadings at Ras Laffan, with more LNG carriers switching off AIS transponders as they cross the chokepoint.
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The US waiver on Russian crude is a reprieve, not a trade-flow reset. India’s Russian crude intake fell from 2.43M b/d in June to 1.64M in September, yet remains substantial. China sourced 30.9% of its crude imports from Russia in Jan–Sep. Sanctions uncertainty persists.
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Can we get an "I was wrong, I'm bad at this" from the oil bears?
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Marhelm retweeted
VolgaLad
@cym27sOct 22
i24NEWS: The U.S. is carrying out a large-scale evacuation of family members of American diplomats from all Middle Eastern countries except Oman and Israel, according to two regional diplomats
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