unaffiliated socialist, cinephile, and student🌹🎥🌠 (he/him)
United Kingdom
Joined June 2020
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reminder to everyone, please add the letterboxd! boxd.it/3bKh3
Max 🌠 retweeted
Just realized: NYT/Siena has Dems leading by 6% or more in 51 Senate seats. 5% or more in 52.
If these polls are correct, the battle for control isn’t gonna be even CLOSE.
The final Times/Siena polls of the campaign find Democrats ahead in all seven of the states likeliest to decide the Senate
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/po…
Max 🌠 retweeted
Many have noticed our Texas U.S. Senate rating has fluctuated between Tilt D and Lean D for the last month or so, with Talarico's win probability hovering around the 65% cutoff.
After yesterday's NYT/Siena poll, he now has a 70% chance of winning in our forecast, placing the race firmly in Lean D. A polling error of average magnitude in Paxton's favor would bring the race to just about a dead heat now.
Max 🌠 retweeted
More mail ballots came in for Florida is the advance vote is down to 🔴 R+2.4
To match their registration advantage in the state: GOP needs 🔴 R+28 day with high 34.5% of the vote coming in on election day (2022 was 33.8% and 2024 was only 23.6%)
Max 🌠 retweeted
Tomorrow, November 3rd, is your last chance to vote to get money out of politics, put money in pockets, and pass Medicare for All.
Get out there (and bring a friend!)
Max 🌠 retweeted
Former President Bill Clinton, quoted by Politico.
“If we have a good election, and I think we will, we have to realize that that’s the opportunity to establish trust — not the ability to take it for granted.”
Max 🌠 retweeted
The thing is, at this point, Dems can absorb a modest-sized polling error and win the Senate. Not a large one. But they have leads of >=3.0 points in states totaling 5 flips, plus in all their own seats.
Max 🌠 retweeted
Second poll in a week showing a tie in this race and both are D-internal. But Letlow’s campaign hasn’t released polling refuting these numbers
Lincoln Park poll | 10/29-10/31 LV
US Senate Louisiana 2026
🟦Jamie Davis 47%
🟥Julia Letlow 47%
(Democratic pollster)
Link to poll: documentcloud.org/documents/…
RT @ZacharyDonnini: Final Texas Early Voting Thoughts
I'll lead with two simple ideas:
1. The 2026 electorate looks likely to be more dive…
Max 🌠 retweeted
This is encouraging, but it gets even better when you realize that Democrats are winning Independents by double digits in every single poll.
Indiana and Kentucky are the first two states to close their polls.
Tuesday could get interesting very early in the night.
🚨 Kentucky early vote data is in
Saturday, the last day of no-excuse early voting, was the best day yet for Democrats: D+4,618 (D+4.2%)
Statewide we're D+4.1% heading into Election Day, 1.6 pts better than 2022 and 14 pts ahead of 2024
leftslantsports.com/politics…
Max 🌠 retweeted
*spins wheel* the university of new hampshire released a poll of the *throws dart* vermont gubernatorial race where phil scott is *flips coin* losing by *rolls dice* eight points
Max 🌠 retweeted
I cant tell if theyre delusional or if theyre being paid to lie. Because if Republicans are being told theyre gonna hold 53 seats and then the Dems hold 53 seats, they're gonna claim fraud due to what they deem is an unbelievable Dem swing.
Max 🌠 retweeted
NYT/Siena has had the best polling of the last decade, with incredibly transparent methodology and a lot of thought put behind ways of overcoming nonresponse bias. They will remain an S-tier pollster regardless of results.
If you simply lost trust in polling, then say so, but raging at polling results because you don't like them is bizarre.
Max 🌠 retweeted
If Scott wins on Tuesday, I think I will legitimately cry tears of joy. This is a beautiful video.
Medgar Evers was killed in his driveway because he refused to accept a Mississippi where some were denied the right to vote.
He stood with thousands who marched, organized and sacrificed so future generations could have a voice. We owe it to them not to take that right for granted. On Tuesday, honor their legacy. Vote.
Max 🌠 retweeted
According to NYT/Siena, Dems got REALLY lucky to be leading in Iowa Senate - the reddest state by generic ballot, paired with the GOP's strongest nominee in Ashley Hinson.
All countered by Josh Turek's UBER STRONG D+15 FAVORABILITY - strongest of ANY Dem Senate candidate polled.
Max 🌠 retweeted
The final NYT/Siena poll in Michigan finds:
— Abdul El-Sayed (53%) with a higher vote share than Jocelyn Benson (52%).
— Abdul El-Sayed (53%) with a higher vote share than the state’s Democratic House candidates (51%).
NEWS: The last Senate polls of 2026 from NYT/Siena:
From me and @RuthIgielnik
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/po…
Max 🌠 retweeted
the times/siena poll has republicans basically suffering the most totalizing and absolute electoral wipeout of the 21st century
Max 🌠 retweeted
Likely D Texas, absolute truthnuke
3rd FLIPR update of the day is in lol
natesilver.net/p/nate-silver…
Max 🌠 retweeted
Last 4 Texas polls from big name pollsters:
CNN: Talarico +6
YouGov: Talarico +4
NYT/Siena: Talarico +7
Atlas Intel: Talarico +6
Averaged out:
Talarico: 50.5%
Paxton: 44.8%
Average: Talarico +5.7%
Paxton’s only path is hoping the polls are embarrassingly wrong.
Max 🌠 retweeted
El-Sayed up 11 on Rogers
Talarico up 7 on Paxton
Jackson up 6 on Collins
Are my eyes deceiving me? Can this really be happening? I’ll never forgive the pollsters if they get yet another election wrong.
NEWS: The last Senate polls of 2026 from NYT/Siena:
From me and @RuthIgielnik
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/po…