@StatisticUrban
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Data scientist โ MS in CS, stats, biochemistry โ Current Econ MS student โ ๐บ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฌ๐ง Policy-centered tweets about tech, bio, urbanism, economics, & politics
Colorado
Joined February 2020
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Say you were forced to live in one of the ultra-red states (Trump >60% of the vote)
Which one do you go for? Personally I think Tennessee or Idaho would be my choice.
This is really not the case for most of American history. From the creation of the US Senate to the Civil War to the New Deal era, it's always been of immense importance.
There have been a few periods of very low partisanship where it's true if you squint, and that's it.
I can't believe Daenerys sailing to Westeros was the last shot Game of Thrones ever had. I'm sad we'll never know exactly how it ends, but what a bold choice from the creators.
By fundraising for its polls, Wedgewood may have genuinely exposed themselves to criminal fraud charges.
1. They knowingly made false statements and false pretenses.
2. They intentionally deceived donors.
3. They induced people to part with money on the basis of those lies.
Iโve been sounding the alarms that the polls are WRONGโand new evidence of that is now piling up!
Polling organizations are being forced to admit they are dramatically under-sampling Republican support, but the media is delighted to use it all to depress GOP turnout. We canโt let that happen!
Today, the Wedgewood scandalโwhere theyโve admitted it was โfar too easyโ to produce and spread completely fake polling dataโadds an even darker element with enormous implications.
**IGNORE THE POLLS, and GO VOTE! ๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ธ We have 13 days to SAVE AMERICA!**
Hunter๐๐๐ retweeted
Piping hot Texas early voting data (days 1-2) straight out of the oven from the incomparable @Thorongil16
TX IPEV IMPORTANT COUNTIES:
Day 2 was good for Dems, though significantly less so than Day 1. In 16 counties representative of the state, the implied 2024 partisanship is still well-left of where the first two days of EV were 2 years ago. If I had all of the remaining 238 counties the recalled vote would probably be something like Trump +6 (8 point shift left from 2024).
Best points for Dems: Hispanic voters (Hidalgo, Cameron)
Worst points for Dems: non-college whites (Hardin, Randall) are barely budging. But... their turnout is terrible so far.
Lots of non-voters that are skewing young/nonwhite.
White voters are really punching below their weight even in urban areas.
Indians in Collin/Fort Bend are possibly beginning to pop off in turnout/bluer recall.
More updates will be made - but here is where we are in day 2 of IPEV.
Interactive here:
claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUjโฆ
recession indicator
Lea Michele will return as Rachel Berry for the โGLEEโ reboot.
(Source: variety.com/2026/tv/news/leaโฆ)
If Democrats won every race where they have a >20% chance in Silver's model, here's the map. Basically a best-case scenario for Dems.
They flip 9 Senate seats, equalling 2014's GOP gains, winning a commanding 56-44 majority. They also flip 8 governorships, including TX and FL.
I think a system that forces a supermajority consensus for judicial picks, but only simple majorities for ordinary legislation, is about 100x better than what we have: supermajority for ordinary legislation, simple majority for the judiciary, including SCOTUS.
Hunter๐๐๐ retweeted
I'm less concerned about the salaries of Members (which, I agree, should be adjusted for inflation) and more concerned with the salaries of Congressional staffers, which are so low that it means perennial turnover and staffers whose average age is in the 20s.
I'm not saying this'll happen, and on balance I don't really expect it to.
But I will note that Ohio voted to the left of Michigan in their respective Senate races as recently as 2018. Sometimes weird things happen, especially in midterms!
If we rank public universities by research output, the University of Michigan actually comes in first, followed by Berkeley, UCLA, and UC San Diego at 2-4, the University of Washington at 5th, and then UT Austin at 6th.
Of public institutions, UNC is 12th, and UVA is 28th.
Very bad play, imo.
I know the Senate internally prizes it chairships and seniority and whatnot, but obviously anything you can do to convince Brown to run in 2028 is worth handing to him.
