It’s not that I’m confident or not confident. Every state has its own terms and conditions that align with either party being able to win it. Talarico’s path to victory is exceedingly narrow. Even the most bullish left-wing modelers who make massive assumptions about how much the white vote and Hispanic vote will swing, and how high or low the turnout will be (with incomplete data at this point) only give Talarico a 4 point margin. Trimming back their ambitions, I would think a real ceiling for him would be 1 percent or less. To get it, it would require dreadful R turnout, which isn’t true, and would require a reversion of the Hispanic vote back ten years, which won’t happen. I’m not rooting for or cheering for anything when I post data. I clearly want the Rs to win in Texas, but I want them to win in NC Senate and I’ve been very clear that’s not going to happen. I am just sick of panic, doom, whining, and people thinking I want to have left-wing models shoved into my comments. Texas Rs hold the keys, and if they vote, they can’t lose. It’s not mathematically possible. If they don’t show, then they can blame themselves.

HOLY CRAP that’s a huge R drop. 7 points on 53,000 ballots is a margin of almost 4,000 net votes. This is up from the +5% drop Friday.