4/ I think it’s important to be very cautious when talking about a "return" or "resurgence" of IS and its supposed "growing" global threat. The group remains relatively weak, has not claimed either of the two major attacks in Palmyra or Australia, and it is premature to frame these events as evidence of a resurgence. Doing so risks amplifying IS propaganda and, inadvertently, doing some of its narrative work for it

My long-read analysis for BBC Monitoring marks the first anniversary of the government change in #Syria and examines what this milestone means for interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa. It also explores key flashpoints, including tensions over Israel and the position of minority groups. monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product… It's based on subscription, but below are the key findings: 👇

Over the past week, our teams and journalists at @BBCMonitoring have released a suite of analyses marking the first anniversary of the government change in Syria. - One looked at the social impact, concluding that there are mixed signals of moderation and religious conservatism in the new Syria. The central question remains whether Sharaa can reconcile his quest for international legitimacy with the uncompromising demands of his Islamist base monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product… - The second analysis examined how Sharaa’s charm offensive to win over the international community and secure powerful allies - including the US, Turkey and the Gulf states - in hopes of easing sanctions and improving Syria’s political and economic prospects has angered hardline Islamists. Many view his policies as serious religious violations and even accuse him of being a Western asset. The analysis explores what these dynamics mean for his government going forward monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product… - The third analysis, titled “No breakthrough for IS in Syria, a year after Assad’s fall”, examines how IS, through its messaging, has remained fixated on Sharaa and on its rival group, HTS - often displaying open resentment of their gains in Syria - while reaffirming its own “steadfast commitment” and presenting itself as the superior alternative for disillusioned Islamists and foreign fighters. Yet IS has so far failed to validate observers’ fears of a major post-Assad jihadist resurgence: its claimed attacks in Syria remain relatively limited and largely unremarkable. However, it remains important to watch out for the group’s attempts to destabilise the country and inflame intercommunal tensions, including through sectarian attacks - some of which may go unclaimed - designed to provoke unrest and project the narrative that Syria is unstable and not open for business: monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product…

IS's Africa-based branches now account for nearly 90% of the group's global attack claims - up from around 70% last year