Long / short trading with objective of beating $SPY in good times and protecting capital in bad. NOT financial advice. Subscribe for free at https://xitter.gq/t.co/ojgKxYXKt6
California, USA
Joined September 2023
- Tweets9.1K
- Following235
- Followers3.7K
- Likes7.3K
Pinned Tweet
Excited to reach 3,000 followers! Thanks to all of you for your support. ❤️
I've updated my pinned tweet to reflect my current trading process so that you can better understand my trade ideas. Let me know if you have any questions/comments!
xitter.gq/MinervaCap/status/2055…
1
13
6,226
Minerva Capital retweeted
While we point to the sweeping midterms as the catalyst for the sharp drawdowns across the AI space last week, the die had already been cast in recent months as the insatiable demand for capital via both debt and equity markets got tested and reigned in. Markets self-regulate just like voters do, restoring balance when the pendulum swings too far in one direction. Mean reversion at work.
For now, bonds are acting like bonds again, which is good to see. How long that anti-correlation lasts is unclear, but the history of secular correlation regimes suggests that it may not be long. That suggests to me that the next “trade” will be a rebalancing out of bonds back into equities. Given the still positive economic backdrop and a Fed which remains behind the curve in terms of policy restriction, I doubt that bond yields have much lower to go here. With that, let's dive into this week's edition of the Asset Allocation Review.
linkedin.com/pulse/balance-p…
$QQQ bounced to the exact levels we discussed in the below note. Unfortunately the bullish conditions were not met (close > 680 on rising volume).
Every V-shaped rally back to the Liberation Day lows was accompanied by a blue volume bar higher than the pink low bar. CPI tomorrow should help dictate the next move.
xitter.gq/MinervaCap/status/2118…
1) A break of the previous highest-dollar volume record has been a mildly bearish to choppy sign for the next month, not a bottom signal.
2) Heavy-volume breaks of multi-month ranges were followed by an average drop of 11.6% within 20 days, and only half (2011, 2015) worked as clean buys. 2008 reclaimed briefly, then collapsed.
1
2
456
NVDA probe weighs on rebound
Stocks staged their best day since April as oil plunged and dip-buyers returned after last week’s midterm-driven selloff. The S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,549.94 (still ~3.4% below its Oct 6 record), the Nasdaq gained 2.74% to 25,253.14, the Dow jumped 1,104 points (+2.15%) to 52,389.75, and the Russell 2000 advanced 3.15%. All 11 S&P sectors finished green, with Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary leading; Energy lagged on the crude drop. Breadth improved and volume was solid, consistent with aggressive chasing by both hedge funds and long-onlys once the prior rout slowed.
Story of the Day: Broad rebound despite $NVDA probe
$NVDA closed ~$178.67, down ~4.3%, after its board launched an independent investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. The probe follows reports linking him to a romantic relationship with Alice Huang (no relation), a former Megaspeed executive that U.S. authorities have viewed as a Chinese intelligence asset. Huang admitted the personal relationship in a staff note, apologized, and pledged full cooperation; the board stated it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised and expressed confidence in him and the leadership team. The overhang hit $NVDA specifically while the rest of the semiconductor complex rebounded hard—$AMD surged ~13% and $AVGO rose ~8.8%, with the SOX up sharply. This is classic selective pressure: the AI infrastructure narrative recovered on dip-buying and relative strength elsewhere, but $NVDA’s idiosyncratic leadership risk remains a near-term drag.
Oil collapse on Iran diplomacy hopes
WTI settled near $86.85 (−4.4%) and Brent near $92.57 (−5.85%), extending last week’s steep drop. The move followed President Trump’s comments that fresh strikes on Iran are “highly unlikely” if talks progress, even as shipping incidents near the Strait of Hormuz continue. Markets are pricing reduced escalation risk post-midterms rather than a fully resolved conflict; physical flows remain a factor. The crude relief supported the equity bid and helped rate-sensitive areas, while Energy was the clear sector laggard.
Semiconductor selective strength and analyst catalyst
Oppenheimer upgraded $AMD to Outperform from Perform with a $600 price target (~34% upside from Friday’s close). The note highlighted accelerating data-center momentum: EPYC CPUs plus early MI455/Helios shipments drove roughly double DC growth in Q3, with management guiding >80% companywide growth next year despite supply constraints. Oppenheimer models ~135% DC revenue growth in 2027 (reaching ~85% of sales) and ~3 GW/4 GW capacity in 2027/2028, citing robust CSP capex (~$1.3T in CY27) and agentic AI as tailwinds. $AMD’s move, alongside $AVGO’s rebound (tied to Google TPU exposure and broader AI infra dip-buying), shows the complex treating last week’s midterm/AI-data-center concerns as temporary rather than structural. The useful follow-up is whether revenue estimates continue to rise with the stronger unit and deployment conviction.
After-hours and the week’s earnings setup
A packed AMC slate produced mixed reactions. $TTD jumped sharply in after-hours on its results; $MARA reported a large EPS beat (driven in part by unrealized Bitcoin gains) and highlighted AI/HPC expansion plus debt reduction. $RKLB, $ASTS, $HIMS, $TTWO and others were more mixed as investors digested numbers and guidance. Looking ahead, $CRWV reports Tuesday and $CSCO/$AMAT/$CBRS/$NBIS are on Thursday—key reads on AI infrastructure financing, networking, and custom silicon after the recent volatility. Options-implied moves remain elevated across several of these names.
What matters next
• Persistence of the dip-buying: Can the broad advance hold if $NVDA’s probe generates further headlines or if CPI (tomorrow) disappoints?
• Semiconductor estimate revision: Watch whether analysts raise near-term revenue for $AMD/$AVGO or simply become more confident in 2027–28 volumes and power/deployment timelines.
• Oil and geopolitics: Further Trump commentary or Hormuz developments will keep Energy and inflation expectations in focus.
• Earnings conversion: The next tests are whether $CRWV, $AMAT, $CSCO and peers turn AI activity into modelable bookings and guidance that justify the rebound.
10-year yields held relatively steady near 4.87%. Stocks absorbed last week’s political and growth concerns plus today’s $NVDA-specific news; the tape’s ability to broaden while oil fell is constructive, but the $NVDA leadership overhang and upcoming inflation/earnings prints remain the near-term filters.
NFA / DYOR — This is independent market commentary aggregating public information for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Markets move quickly; do your own research and consider your risk tolerance.
1
452
This interview with veteran trader @StanWeinstein13 is worth watching:
Trading Lessons from 60+ Years in the Market
youtu.be/PRRNI5SrUWY?si=6lmw…
1
407
I look forward to testing Fable 5.2 alongside Opus 5.5 and hopefully switching over entirely. Some more details on how it is better at financial analysis / trade idea generation below.
xitter.gq/claudeai/status/211986…
Fable 5.2 and Mythos 5.2 are a step above Opus 5.5 in almost all the capabilities we evaluated.
Testers have found that they communicate more clearly than past Fable and Mythos models. They generate outputs up to 30% faster than Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1.
3
894
Major ETFs running into trendline resistance right as $QQQ tests the 200DMA from below and just as the Iran pump turned out to be fake again. Will be an interesting spot to watch.
1
339
$MGNI impressive follow-thru and 52-wk highs in this market
xitter.gq/MinervaCap/status/2118…
I had forgotten the underwater $MGNI calls but looks like they had a decent print. Notes below. NFA
xitter.gq/MinervaCap/status/2118…
2
392
Minerva Capital retweeted
THE BEGINNING OF THE END?
macro-ops.com/the-beginning-…
Midterm AI scare lingers
There’s no single clean thread — the market is still digesting last week’s midterm-driven AI data-center scare, a hot jobs print that keeps the Fed on a hiking path, a Friday tech bounce that only partially repaired Thursday’s damage, and a handful of single-stock catalysts that will set the tone into a busy earnings week. Don’t force a grand thesis; trade the catalysts and watch the narrative risk.
Macro / Narrative Risk: Midterms + Jobs → AI Infra Overhang
Democrats’ midterm sweep (House, Senate, key governorships including Texas) has crystallised a clear political risk to the AI data-center buildout. Voters backed dozens of local measures limiting new centers; Texas (roughly a quarter of planned U.S. capacity) now has a governor-elect who campaigned on a moratorium. UBS and others have flagged that ~30% of expected 2028 additions could face delays. Thursday’s tape was the market pricing that in real time: $SOX -12%, $NVDA -9%, $AMD -17%, $MU and $SNDK double-digit drops, Nasdaq into correction territory and the worst single-day value destruction in the AI trade’s history. Friday saw a partial rebound ($NVDA +2.8%, $MU +5%, $AMD double-digit) as dip-buyers stepped in, but the political overhang remains the dominant multi-week risk for anything tied to power, land, or permits.
Layer on the October jobs print: +165k vs ~65-70k expected, unemployment 4.1%. December hike odds jumped to ~78%. The Fed held at 3.75-4% in late October (with dissents for a hike); Chair Warsh’s tone plus this data keep the bias firmly hawkish. Strong labor + political friction on the biggest growth driver is not a clean “soft landing” setup. FinTwit narrative is clear: the easy permitting era is over; some capacity will migrate overseas or get delayed. One counter-narrative already circulating is that local/edge AI and overseas builds (SE Asia, LatAm) can offset U.S. friction — watch that story for relative strength in non-U.S. memory and networking names.
Earnings & Single-Stock Catalysts
$ABNB delivered the cleanest positive print of the week. Q3 revenue +19% to $4.87B (fastest growth in 3+ years), EPS $3.16 vs $2.85, nights/seats +16%, GBV +21%. Raised FY26 revenue growth to high-teens, guided Q4 above Street, and authorized a fresh $12B buyback on top of remaining authorization. Stock ripped ~12%. Management is leaning into AI as a travel-agent tailwind rather than a threat. Classic “beat + raise + capital return” setup that works for multi-day swings if the broader tape cooperates.
$NET also stood out. Q3 revenue +39% to $782.5M (fastest in nearly four years), beat and raise on full-year revenue and EPS. Shares jumped double-digits after hours even as the broader AI complex sold off. Connectivity cloud and security continue to benefit from AI traffic and agentic workloads — a relative winner in the software complex.
$LRCX announced a $25B buyback authorization (more than it has spent since mid-2020) plus dividend. Came after a brutal Thursday drop and helped support the Friday chip bounce. Capital-return signal from a key equipment name when the market is questioning the duration of the AI capex cycle.
Software was mixed. $TEAM beat on revenue and EPS with solid cloud growth and RPO +44%, yet still traded heavy — the market is punishing anything that doesn’t fully rewrite the “AI loser or neutral” narrative. Cyber and identity remain the cleaner software pockets as agent proliferation expands the attack surface.
Looking Ahead – This Week’s Card
Dense AI-infrastructure stretch: $CRWV (CoreWeave) Tuesday, $AMAT and $CSCO later in the week, plus $NBIS and others. Options are pricing large moves in several of these. $AMAT in particular will be watched for DRAM/HBM and advanced packaging commentary after the memory complex’s violent swings. Any sign that hyperscaler demand is intact (or that LTA structures are locking in pricing) can stabilize the sector; any further caution on power or timing will feed the regulatory narrative.
Positioning Notes for Swing Traders
∙Highest-conviction multi-day setups right now sit in names with fresh, clean catalysts ($ABNB capital return + guide, $NET raise) rather than pure AI beta.
∙The midterm/data-center story is still live on FinTwit and can re-rate the entire infra complex lower on any new headline (state action, protest, OpenAI/Meta response). Size accordingly and use the Friday bounce levels as reference.
∙Memory and optics remain high-beta to both the shortage narrative and the political risk; expect continued volatility until the next data points (earnings, capacity updates).
∙Strong jobs + sticky inflation bias keeps the Fed in play; any further yield spike is a headwind for duration-sensitive growth.
NFA / DYOR. This is a summary of publicly reported catalysts and market commentary for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Do your own research and manage risk.
2
7
744
Minerva Capital retweeted
Our market analysis is out, prepare for the week ahead!
And a nice read about our correction risk model that flagged max danger before the decline started.
Useful👊
thesetupfactory.substack.com…
Minerva Capital retweeted
By nature of being a vol trader, I’ve studied many different market crashes. Not just the common ones in the U.S., but episodes like Britain in 1720, Vienna in 1873, and the Dutch tulip mania of 1637.
There are some interesting behavioral takeaways that aren’t entirely intuitive unless you participate in markets every single day.
One of the biggest for me is that large market moves often need two-way action to develop. Behaviorally, you need participants willing to take the other side, because their eventual need to unwind can help accelerate the move. It’s almost like storing energy that gets released later. To create that dynamic, a “gray catalyst” can be particularly powerful one whose implications aren’t immediately black and white.
Here are two examples that helped produce massive moves in opposite directions that had gray area headlines that led to that two way flow.
COVID (March 2020): What often gets lost in the sauce is that many participants were aggressively betting against the idea that COVID would be severely disruptive. As stocks fell, they bought the dip and sold vol. When stocks kept falling and vol kept rising, some of those positions became fuel for the next leg of the move as participants were forced to unwind.
Looking back, the outcome seems obvious. In real time, the eventual scale of the disruption was far from clear. There was HOPE that it would pass quickly. Headlines about potential treatments, policy support, or a less severe impact repeatedly gave investors reasons to step back in. Stocks would rip 5% higher immediately on that news and hope, only to reverse again even lower when more negative news hit.
Those rallies matter. They give existing longs a reason to stay and new buyers a reason to enter. When the recovery fails, there is another round of positioning that may need to come out. Without that back-and-forth, it can be harder to produce the same degree of forced selling. The uncertainty helps keep replenishing the other side.
Meme mania (January 2021): Companies like GameStop and AMC surged hundreds of percent amid a speculative frenzy and short squeezes. Here, too, there was a gray area. Many investors saw businesses facing serious fundamental challenges, which made shorting them appear rational, especially as their share prices climbed further away from what those investors believed they were worth.
But a compelling fundamental argument does not tell you how far a stock can move before that argument pays off. As prices rose, some shorts covered, while others saw an even more attractive entry point and stepped in. That fresh short exposure created the potential for another round of forced buying if prices continued higher.
The gray area was the gap between the fundamental thesis and the path the market could take. Of course these weren’t great stocks, and the fact that people came in on that helped the waves move higher and higher.
That’s the behavioral dynamic I find so interesting. Uncertainty can keep attracting participants to the other side of a move. As the move extends, their conviction runs into their capital constraints, and an opinion can turn into a forced transaction.
Minerva Capital retweeted
$SOXX and $IWF / $IWD ...the 1999/2000 analog in semiconductors is playing out so far.
Was it simply a correction in an uptrend or the top? Anything is possible, but the price action is increasingly consistent with a topping process, particularly if the SOX fails to reclaim its Oct 2026 highs.
It is worth remembering that bear markets (if we are in one) are notorious for counter-trend squeezes, and the 1999/2000 analog had many of those. Big picture, from April through June, AI rallied on good news and shrugged off bad news. Since June's Micron numbers, the opposite: good news struggles to lift stocks, while bad news gets punished. The price action is hardly that of a bull market. And a stat for the bulls/bears – it took the SOX almost 18 years to recover its 2000 peak.
On April 2, oil surged 10%. NQ fell more than 2%, then reversed to close green. You know what happened next.
On Monday, oil was down 8%. NQ was up 1% and closed down on the day. Was it a signal perhaps?
The great Bruce Kovner once said “Study the world. Study markets. Listen to the markets. Then, perhaps, with a little luck and skill, you may be able to find ways not simply to be a victim of circumstances but to profit from them.”xitter.gq/961_mah/status/2117331…
$QQQ One of the best tape readers I know is @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt. I’ve learned a lot from him.
Does listening to the tape always work? Of course not. Nothing does. But when it speaks, it pays to listen—or at least pause and review your positions.
On April 2, oil surged 10%. NQ fell more than 2%, then reversed to close green. You know what happened next.
Today, oil is down 8%. NQ was up 1% and is now trading lower. Still early, but see the asymmetry?
April through June, AI rallied on good news and ignored bad news. Since June, it’s sold off on bad news and shrugged off good news.
We could rally 10% tomorrow. I don’t know. But the market may be telling us something here.
Minerva Capital retweeted
Now that we saw the market drop 4% in a day with a few pod shop liquidations, we can now circle back to the point I was making in this post, the majority of the street was NOT betting lower, it was and still is the complete opposite!
All the horrible sell side data in the weeks prior were talking about how hedge fund exposures were “LOW” and how short based bets were super high lol.
Dive into the thread. It should serve as a good learning lesson.
Everyone who keeps sharing these short interest charts is missing the flows behind them. Most shops are not taking outright short bets. This is another effort to ease margin requirements across the street: banks providing balance sheet for more speculative bets are asking clients to post more short exposure.
The sequence on the street looks like this:
HF manager: “I want more margin.”
Bank: “Things look risky in public AI bets, and we’re already lending a lot against private AI bets. For some clients, we’ll extend more financing, but only if they add more short exposure to improve their collateral scores.”
HF manager: “Okay, I’ll short more stock against my main bet.”
That is how you end up with short exposures that look astronomically high while many end users remain heavily long tech. The additional shorts are supporting the financing of their main bets.
Which also tells the bigger story on why raw equity financing rates haven’t blown out the way they did ahead of the big SpaceX IPO in June, despite the fact that lending is slowing.
I see a lot of healthy debate around y'day's high volume on $QQQ, so I analyzed all the historical data:
Volume spikes in QQQ aren't pure noise, but they rarely mark the exact low. A heavy selling day during a correction has usually come before positive 20–60 day returns, but the spike day's low has almost always been broken first. Yesterday's bar looks like the start of washout selling, not the final low. Let me know if you have any further data mining questions or opinions I can test against the data.
5
13
1,950
1) A break of the previous highest-dollar volume record has been a mildly bearish to choppy sign for the next month, not a bottom signal.
2) Heavy-volume breaks of multi-month ranges were followed by an average drop of 11.6% within 20 days, and only half (2011, 2015) worked as clean buys. 2008 reclaimed briefly, then collapsed.
1
599
New cracks emerging in AI financing - IMO this is the critical constraint - not usage, revenues or profitability:
* SoftBank CDS at 4-year high
* Musk's claim of SoftBank turbine-order defaults
* OpenAI cutting its raise to $20B after securing only about $11B
* Datacenter loan auction
* Anthropic IPO / valuation concerns
xitter.gq/G2AIStack/status/21187…
ING--Auctions ~$500M of data center loans including Stargate New Mexico slice
ING is putting about $500 million of data center loans up for sale in one auction, Bloomberg reported via Data Center Dynamics, with bids due November 19 and a minimum bid size of $10 million. It is described as the first auction of that scale focused exclusively on data center debt, coming as AI and data center stocks sold off on debt worries and post-midterm pushback on more buildouts.
Among the dozen loans is a $25 million stake tied to a Stargate data center project in New Mexico—the Stack/BorderPlex Project Jupiter site (up to 2.5 GW) where Oracle sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl in September over gas power connection risks. Also on the block are debts from Vantage Data Centers and CyrusOne.
datacenterdynamics.com/en/ne…
1
4
591