allocator, buildor, trador, unit-01, nfa, imho, dyor, low iq chief intern @temple_ny, strategery @orderx, ex @bnyglobal, @lumidawealth
Double Scalar Multiplication
Joined February 2022
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hyperliquid + drw + cme
my take aways from odd lots interviews with jeff, don, and terry
1. all 3 say 24/7 trading is coming but disagree on why it's not here yet
jeff: tech and uptime
terry: banks are closed on weekends, can't prefund a $76t equity market
don: MMs don't want to quote saturdays
2. the perp fight
terry: perps are swaps and only for leverage/speculation
don: perps are futures, leverage is a design choice
jeff: a perp just needs an index price and hard oracle limits
terry and don agree gpu futures should list. don says coreweave bonds near 15% show why compute owners need a hedge
3. the weekend collateral problem is simple. a clearinghouse calls margin when prices move. on a saturday the fed wire is off and banks aren't sending dollars
so if a market gaps on sunday you can't post cash until monday. the clearinghouse eats that risk or makes everyone prefund extra margin all week
prefunding a $76T market just to trade two extra days ties up a lot of capital for little volume
the fix is collateral that moves on weekends. tokenized treasuries, stablecoins, onchain repo
whoever lets a firm post treasuries at 2am sunday and get margin credit right away removes the main reason markets close
I asked @CMEGroup CEO Terry Duffy if, in his view, there are literally any laws anymore when it comes to financial regulation.
compute markets feel forced
you don't need perps on gpu hours to hedge or speculate on compute
an h100 hr can be nearly all explained by interest rates and commodity inputs
depreciation + cost of capital = ~57% of h100 run cost. power is ~12%
coreweave's ig gpu-backed loan priced at sofr+225. 2 years ago the same collateral paid sofr+600 to 1300
$197B of gpu financing since 2023, 92% of it in the last two years
take borrow rates from 5.6% to 10% and modeled neocloud margins go from ~15% to ~5%
every gpu hour is a duration trade. hedge it with onchain treasuries
a data center uses 27T of copper per mw, 40-60T if it's built for ai training. half of tin is used for solder. silver, tungsten, nickel, molybdenum, etc...
far easier to hedge compute with onchain commodities and treasuries.
“The most important number in GPU pricing right now isn't $/GPU-hour.
It's the gap between what a hyperscaler pays to borrow (~90bp over Treasuries) and
what a neocloud pays (~1,100bp).”
I've been critical in the past of AI compute indexes and the willingness to price compute based on the spot rental price, but now that the AI reset is sinking into the repricing of AI buildout debt its time to realize that the cost of capital is what determines the price of compute.
The most important number in GPU pricing right now isn't $/GPU-hour. It's the gap between what a hyperscaler pays to borrow (~90bp over Treasuries) and what a neocloud pays (~1,100bp).
The cost of compute is now set by the cost of capital, and the spot rental rate no longer tells you much.
The price of an H100 isn't one number. The same chip in the same rack costs a different amount depending on whose balance sheet it sits on. A ~1,000bp funding gap is a structural cost advantage that no amount of operating skill closes.
For example, take one GPU-hour apart. Most of it isn't power or space. It's paying back the chip, the interest on the loan that bought it, and the return the equity expects. A $40–55k all-in GPU, 75% debt-funded, at ~7,000 utilized hours a year is a financing instrument that happens to do matrix multiplication.
As the +500bp on neocloud debt (10%→15%) adds $0.20–0.30 to the break-even cost of every GPU-hour, which is then added on to the rental price.
That's 8–10% of the H100 index, from a credit spread alone, driven almost entirely by the cost of capital.
That means that the compute spot index is a derivative of the AI infra debt credit curve and the squeeze on neocloud margins.
John Nash Cutrone, CFA retweeted
Barron’s, which might be *the* tradfi publication, is running a cover story on tokenization…
Some quotes:
“Crypto technology is moving from the fringes toward the center of finance, whether or not legislators approve.”
“This is a watershed moment.”
“I would hope that Wall Street as Wall Street still exists, but it will have to do business differently.”
“The goal of tokenized equity is to move the markets to an always-on economy.”
“Tokenization will represent the biggest upgrade to our financial system since we moved from paper to electronic trading.”
If you still can’t see that financial markets are heading toward full tokenization, not sure what to tell you at this point.
via @joelight
yes, ofc markets need transparent prices
institutions also need their identities and positions kept private
jeff is right that public books have better pricing
but a book that shows the address behind every order is a non starter for the largest shops
Fireside today at @blockworksDAS with @chameleon_jeff on Hyperliquid, future goals, and what’s being built today.
Incredibly optimistic about the future of Hyperliquid and what can be built on permissionless, performant infrastructure.
directionally right with tokens like DRV and LIT and stonks like CRCL and HOOD
agents will work 24/7 and push capital where it's treated best
name of the game for trading apps is ux, liquidity, and a top tier API/CLI/MPC
John Nash Cutrone, CFA retweeted
I haven’t touched Claude Code or Codex CLI in a while.
The terminal era is over imo. It's the wrong interface for coding agents. Tabs are ephemeral, but context is persistent, and managing 30 tabs is pure cognitive overhead.
I don’t really need an IDE like Cursor either. I rarely navigate the whole codebase anymore.
The new primitive is the agent, not the file.
(Codex desktop app is the best agentic UI for now. But we’re still early.)
"AMMs will continue to serve long-tail assets,
perps will remain the primary tool for crypto speculation, ...
But we need new primitives to support where the industry is heading, and it’s likely heading towards RWAs."
0/ @shayonsengupta and I out with another essay in our series about on-chain market structure. This one is called DeFi 2.0
multicoin.capital/2026/09/24…
John Nash Cutrone, CFA retweeted
NERV’s motto, 'God’s in His heaven. All’s right with the world', wasn’t created for the series.
It comes from Robert Browning’s 1841 poem Pippa Passes.
this shopping list aged well
Shopping list forming: Bitcoin, @NEARProtocol (AI revenue + quantum-proof), @CantonNetwork (institutional privacy), @Zcash (wait for the wick lower)
John Nash Cutrone, CFA retweeted
Seems likely to suck much the attention and speculative capital out of the room for the next 2 months
@a16zcrypto's 2026 outlook treats regulatory alignment as the path for institutional adoption rather than the constraint,
and expects tokenization to move toward native onchain origination.
a16zcrypto.com/posts/article…