John Nash Cutrone, CFA

Been long Copper since 2023. Not naive enough to expect up-only in a straight line, but the macro thesis is still screaming bull. S&P Global dropped some great charts, so let’s strip away the noise and run through the structural supply: 1) The tier-1 discovery pipeline is in a total desert. Down from 714.8Mt in the ‘90s to a pathetic 8.7Mt over 2020–2025. Mega discoveries are basically extinct. 2) Capex burns are back up past $3B annually on exploration, yet the hit rate is completely cooked—netting a measly 0-2 discoveries a year. Trash ROIC... 3) Discovery cost per tonne went from ~$10 in the ‘90s to an eye watering $1,000–$2,600+ print today. Not a temporary blip; it’s a secular blowout in finding costs. 4) Gone are the days of unlocking multi tens of million monsters like Collahuasi or Pebble. Today’s wins are 1–2Mt crumbs that don't move the global balance needle. 5) More than half (55%) of cumulative reserves are concentrated in South America, while Africa—such as the DRC—is gradually taking up a larger share. South America has recently slipped into operational and production slumps, and Africa continues to suffer from political instability. 6) Roughly 500Mt of identified reserves have been rotting in prefeasibility purgatory for decades. Permitting hell, eco-lawfare, and zero IRR. Bless the regulators and green grifters for choking. 7) C-suites are terrified of greenfield risk. They’ve completely castrated wildcat budgets to hide inside safe brownfield pit extensions. Structural consequence. Zero chance of hitting a generational tier-1 asset. 8) Copper mining typically takes over 15-20 years from discovery to actual commercial production (operational), the current exploration slump translates directly into a future production cliff. This is an undeniable fact. 9) Megawatt power grids, EV buildouts, and AI data centers are devouring physical units, while the project pipeline is running bone dry. Sure, the demand ceiling floats on the macro tape, but this structural supply paralysis puts a bulletproof concrete floor under the market. 10) Marginal incentive pricing and long term cost floors have nowhere to go but violently up and to the right. So what's priced into the equities? Large caps are still riding a fat liquidity premium over the mid/small cap complex. Ivanhoe’s lagging for obvious DRC baggage, but look at the implied copper price deck. Freeport is pricing in $6.25/lb. First Quamtum is at $5.92/lb. Lundin sits at $5.44/lb, Capstone at $5.37/lb, my horse Hudbay at $4.73/lb, and Ivanhoe down at $3.95/lb. Of course each name has a different setup. In the case of Hudbay, which I hold, precious account for nearly 45% of annual revenue, whereas First Quantum and Freeport sit around the 10% mark. Naturally i'm completely fine with this since I'm structurally bullish on precious as well. What I want to say is that while we must closely monitor that the copper thesis doesn't derail, if you have conviction in the trajectory, equities still offer massive upside. Demand downside risk? Sure conceded. If Xi pulls the trigger on Taiwan or Jensen and Sam Altman get perp walked by the feds for running an AI Ponzi(lol), things will hit the fan. Outside of those black swans, the supply side reality is downright apocalyptic—and the operational bleed coming out of Chile just hammers the nail in the coffin. In commodity risk, when the supply side guarantees a rock solid floor, you’ve already eliminated half your downside distribution. Still max constructive on copper. Until the tape changes my thesis, I’m letting my winners run and fading the short term chop. Along with $HBM, I hold two junior miners. Certified worst PM on the planet and talking exclusively to pump my own book like the conflicted scumbag I am, so don't take this as financial advice. #copper