Dow Theory, Price, & Research Specialists. We're touching the financial & economic third rail, so you don't have to. 皆さんがそうしなくてもいいように、私たちは金融と経済の第三レールに触れています。
Joined January 2010
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New Low Observer retweeted
The @nytimes has been reporting a housing crisis since at least 1856. I joined @profgalloway and @kylascan on The Prof G Pod to talk about why housing is still so expensive. Links below.
New Low Observer retweeted
Go follow @AzizSunderji now if you want sensible data-informed analysis of housing markets.
The @nytimes has been reporting a housing crisis since at least 1856. I joined @profgalloway and @kylascan on The Prof G Pod to talk about why housing is still so expensive. Links below.
New Low Observer retweeted
April 1979: "Today’s public is fearful; they don’t know how they are going to make ends meet."
This will surprise you, but the fearmongers are the reason for the gambling. Their bear porn stokes fear. The more followers, the more gambling.
We've long said, thank the bears.
"Fed: Our policy is restrictive" - @NorthmanTrader
Entertainment☝️🏾
Reality👇🏻
March 1979: "Amid chronic inflation, the average American continues to try to "make up" for what inflation has cost him."
#Fartcoin succeeds BECAUSE of the relatively restrictive environment.
New Low Observer retweeted
October 28, 2020:
"Even after today’s US Q3 GDP beat, equities are still trading on a 1.6X market cap/GDP ratio, 14% higher than Dot-com peak levels..."
xitter.gq/BittelJulien/status/13…
1791-2019: US Stock Market Capitalization/U.S. GDP
The market cap from the peak during the Second Bank of the U.S. increased 2.5x.
From the peak during the period without a central bank to the Dot Com Bubble, the market cap increased 2.5x.
Special thanks to @GlobalFinData
New Low Observer retweeted
October 28, 2020:
"I think we have now clearly started the transition from Hope phase to Insolvency phase."
xitter.gq/RaoulGMI/status/132140…
I think we have now clearly started the transition from Hope phase to Insolvency phase (as per my Unfolding video and this update):
youtube.com/watch?v=FKLabPm1…
New Low Observer retweeted
Number of Banks
Canada: 35
US: 4,135
The "Great" Banking Consolidation in the U.S. 😆
xitter.gq/menlobear/status/18513…
New Low Observer retweeted
Not outlandish. 1620s 1720s 1820s 1920s are period of #RoaringTwenties. Isaac Newton had his entire estate bankrupt on South Sea bubble 1720s. I offer macro outlook NOT financial advice. Notice clarity $SPX 3,800 worse case detailed ahead of time. Bye 👋 xitter.gq/AdithiaKusno/status/14…
Almost bottom if not already
Worst halfway $SPX 3,800
Sentiment worse than 1Q20 Covid bottom
20% $NDX above 200 dma v 15% 1Q20
AD line is flat neutral not bearish
Notice complacency v cautious metric (2nd chart)
Cautious market never tops
#RoaringTwenties
xitter.gq/AdithiaKusno/status/14…
New Low Observer retweeted
"Reading is a great way to distract yourself during the bear market..."
Sage advice.
This quoted post is unavailable.
New Low Observer retweeted
1998-2023: S&P 500 Buybacks
Our updates in red.
Some data shouts the answer. As @EvanBleker accurately points out, "markets are agnostic about rates."
Thanks to @tyillc @t1alpha @apolloglobal @DiMartinoBooth
Always worth noting sources of flows at the margins.
Per @apolloglobal “There is downward pressure on buybacks because of worries about a recession, the new tax on buybacks & higher cost of capital. These three forces make free cash flow more valuable for companies”
cc @t1alpha
New Low Observer retweeted
1978: "As California goes, so goes the nation..."
2023: "The US unemployment rate will follow it [California]."
Thanks to @JeffWeniger
#SameAsEver
New Low Observer retweeted
1858 vs. 2023: California Exodus
"Dire prediction if the nation goes as California goes…"
- @LukeGromen
Throughout the history of California, the reasons to leave are always the same.
If precedent matters, then the dire predictions are from those that don't know history.
Dire prediction if the nation goes as California goes…
ocregister.com/2023/06/09/ca…
New Low Observer retweeted
November 1977: Ten Weaklings at the Top
w/Fortune 500 Ranking
"Managers and actuaries are vastly understating the costs of retirement benefits. When companies finally have to pay the bills, there may not be much left over for stockholders."
The carnage is obvious.
New Low Observer retweeted
April 21, 1899:
"...it takes a change of opinion on the part of millions of people to produce a well-defined sentiment throughout the country."
Charles H. Dow, co-founder and editor of the Wall Street Journal
New Low Observer retweeted
It could be said that the more bearish sentiment that is disseminated the more the market can continue to increase.
In fact, it is because of the success of the bears to get the word out about negative market factors that we have a bull market.
