Dow Theory, Price, & Research Specialists. We're touching the financial & economic third rail, so you don't have to. 皆さんがそうしなくてもいいように、私たちは金融と経済の第三レールに触れています。
Joined January 2010
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How is it possible to exert yield curve "control" in the environment that we're living through but was outlined to perfection in 1984?
1985-2030 rate projection in red.
December 1974:
"One of the government's chief inflation-fighting tools has been to tighten credit..."
Well that didn't stop prices and inflation from climbing, so they raised rates from single digits to double digits. That didn't stop the inflation.
Will they ever learn?
#Silver Analysis in an era of AI:
November 2025 at $52: Silver is sniffing out something.
October 2026 at $51: Silver is sniffing out something.
1990-2022: Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share
xitter.gq/lenkiefer/status/15395…
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of loan activity at its highest level in more than a year, as borrowers seek relief from elevated mortgage rates
@MBAmortgage
2024: Mortgage Denial Rates by State
Think a cheaper home means the mortgage approval is easier? Not always. For manufactured homes, the price isn't the problem — the property is. New research digs into why bit.ly/4euLYCt
"How does downtown Seattle recover from this?"
The answer always begins with "SOLD."
Downtown Seattle's decline is impossible to ignore...
The city's PLUMMETING commercial real estate valuations tell the story
Just look at these recent deals:
Roosevelt Commons: Bought for $157M in 2019, sold for $27M - an ~83% discount
901 Fifth Avenue: $304M in 2019, sold for $48M - an ~84% discount
Plaza 600: Valued at $97M in a 2019, sold for $12.5M - a MASSIVE ~87% decline
And it's not just office buildings. Retail centers and hotels have been DECIMATED over the last several years
Seattle was truly one of the great American cities but has been destroyed in recent years due to obvious reasons
How does downtown Seattle recover from this?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive discounts
July 1842: Bimetallic Era
30 years ago, "$400 would be considered high rent..."
Now..."$500 and $600" and in New York "$1,200 and $1,500"
Notice how they didn't mention ownership? It wasn't considered a viable option.
Hard money, inflation avoided? No.
December 1814: Wealth Inequality
"New inhabitants, scarcely make both ends meet."
"Old town, inhabitants abound in wealth."
Pay same price for "conscript soldier"
Our readers know that when the whales bail, price discovery is likely to follow right behind, BECAUSE the whales have bailed.
Thanks to @topperwhopper & @AdithiaKusno
#WhalesNeedToBail
xitter.gq/NewLowObserver/status/…
New Low Observer retweeted
The @nytimes has been reporting a housing crisis since at least 1856. I joined @profgalloway and @kylascan on The Prof G Pod to talk about why housing is still so expensive. Links below.
New Low Observer retweeted
Go follow @AzizSunderji now if you want sensible data-informed analysis of housing markets.
The @nytimes has been reporting a housing crisis since at least 1856. I joined @profgalloway and @kylascan on The Prof G Pod to talk about why housing is still so expensive. Links below.
Quality content today is parroting what you just said.
Then, referring you to someone else who has great insights.
They don't even RT what was so great about their referral you didn't ask about. 😬
🌟 $NOW climbs +30% after our posting, then falls -20%.
newlowobserver.com/2026/08/s…
BREAKING: ServiceNow stock, $NOW, collapses nearly -20% after posting weaker than expected Q3 earnings.
"Why not raise rates today?"
Changing rates doesn't change inflation.
"The reason for the fall in interest rates is the decline in inflation, not the Fed's easing."
-M. Friedman, Oct. 25, 1982
New Low Observer retweeted
April 1979: "Today’s public is fearful; they don’t know how they are going to make ends meet."
This will surprise you, but the fearmongers are the reason for the gambling. Their bear porn stokes fear. The more followers, the more gambling.
We've long said, thank the bears.
"Fed: Our policy is restrictive" - @NorthmanTrader
Entertainment☝️🏾
Reality👇🏻
March 1979: "Amid chronic inflation, the average American continues to try to "make up" for what inflation has cost him."
#Fartcoin succeeds BECAUSE of the relatively restrictive environment.
New Low Observer retweeted
October 28, 2020:
"Even after today’s US Q3 GDP beat, equities are still trading on a 1.6X market cap/GDP ratio, 14% higher than Dot-com peak levels..."
xitter.gq/BittelJulien/status/13…
1791-2019: US Stock Market Capitalization/U.S. GDP
The market cap from the peak during the Second Bank of the U.S. increased 2.5x.
From the peak during the period without a central bank to the Dot Com Bubble, the market cap increased 2.5x.
Special thanks to @GlobalFinData
New Low Observer retweeted
October 28, 2020:
"I think we have now clearly started the transition from Hope phase to Insolvency phase."
xitter.gq/RaoulGMI/status/132140…
I think we have now clearly started the transition from Hope phase to Insolvency phase (as per my Unfolding video and this update):
youtube.com/watch?v=FKLabPm1…
October 28, 2020:
“We have borrowed so much that I’m skeptical that three to five years out that equities will give us any kind of return.”
- Stanley Druckenmiller
“We have borrowed so much that I’m skeptical that three to five years out that equities will give us any kind of return.”
— Stanley Druckenmiller (yesterday)
Many valuation metrics agree, with future expected 5-year & 10-year returns possibly flat to negative for $SPX.
New Low Observer retweeted
Number of Banks
Canada: 35
US: 4,135
The "Great" Banking Consolidation in the U.S. 😆
xitter.gq/menlobear/status/18513…
