Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
Citizens estimates a ~$160B addressable market for $ONDS but what really stands out to me is that ~$120B comes from counter-drone defense alone with ~$96B of that opportunity coming international.
That international exposure is huge because allied militaries facing cheap drone threats cannot keep relying on million-dollar missiles which creates a growing need for better detection and interception systems that can be deployed at scale.
And I almost look at rest of this chart as a roadmap for what Ondas could become with Stemme bringing ISR aircraft manufacturing in-house at ~25% factory utilization while autonomous ground systems and precision strike represent next logical pieces of a much broader defense platform.
JUST IN: Citrini Research advises clients to cover $NBIS short position and to go short $IREN instead.
"One quick swap we are making is $IREN for $NBIS on the short leg of the neocloud pair mostly to derisk on earnings (IREN announced and popped harder than the sector today, NBIS earnings is next week). IREN is also more stretched in balance sheet, which matters since financing reflexivity is a huge part of this."
$ONDS 1 year ago: $5
$ONDS today: $5
Change: 0%
Q3 revenue 1 year ago: $10.1M
Q3 guide today: $155M (15x)
Backlog 1 year ago: $23M
Backlog today: $757M (32x)
- $270 million+ in new orders since June 30
2026 revenue guide 1 year ago: $110M
2026 revenue guide today: $525–550M (5x raise)
Q3 guide alone: nearly 3x ALL of 2025
1 year ago: "drone company"
Today: Neo-Prime, Prime on $1 billion+ of DoW contract vehicles, launched Regna AI with $PLTR, backed by $LMT, counter-UAS wins across Europe + Asia, buying Stemme to build 10 ULTRA ISR aircraft a month by 2028
The business went vertical. The stock went sideways
All eyes on November 12th
More bullish than ever
NFA
$ONDS reports Thursday. Here's my model for the print:
Q3 revenue (guide $140–155M, Street ~$147M):
- Bear: $136M
- Base: $152M
- Bull: $168M
Why I lean beat: first full quarter of DZYNE, Cyberhawk + GATE closed mid-quarter, $270+ million in new orders since June 30
They blew past expectations in Q1 AND Q2
But Q3 isn't the real test. To hit the $525–550M FY guide, Q4 needs ~$240–265M
Watch if they reaffirm
If they do: Q4 run-rate ≈ $1B/yr, EV ≈ $2 billion
I hold $ONDS Not financial advice
Worth a read for any $ONDS shareholder
Great write up from @SheriffStrategy
$ONDS just showed you what ULTRA could be worth
Do the math:
Target: 10 ULTRA per month by 2028 = 120 aircraft a year
The Air Force priced ULTRA at ~$9M per system in its budget (4 for ~$35M)
120 × $8–9M = ~$1B a year from ONE platform
For context, Ondas guided $525–550M revenue for ALL of 2026, ULTRA alone could roughly double that
Why it's credible:
- Already operationally deployed by the USAF
- USAF contract just upsized to $85.6M
- ~1/3 the cost of an MQ-9 Reaper, with 70+ hrs endurance and 400+ lbs payload
- New acquisition, Stemme, is running at 25% capacity, so there's 4x headroom before a single U.S. square foot gets built
- Plus a planned 345K sq ft U.S. plant on top of 135K sq ft in Germany
And that's before aftermarket and maintenance through Stemme's FAA Part 145 repair station.
Owning the airframe = owning the margin
Super bullish on $ONDS and ULTRA
NFA DYOR
People constantly complaining about $ONDS share price but completely ignoring the whole sector
$SWMR -31% YTD (IPO in march)
$ONDS -44% YTD
$RCAT -48% YTD
$KTOS -51% YTD
$AVAV -53% YTD
$AVEX -54% YTD (IPO in April)
$DPRO -54% YTD
$ONDS isn’t an outlier here, in-fact it’s on the lower end of the spectrum from Drone stocks that have taken a huge hit this year
NFA
$ONDS Bears: "Ondas is just an acquisition roll-up"
Also Ondas this morning: multi-million dollar counter-UAS wins with a major European police org AND an Asian government
Ranger = man-portable drone detection + takedown
Iron Drone Raider = autonomous interceptor that kills drones even when they're flying on autonomy with no RF link to jam
The tech stack is turning into global orders, that's the whole thesis
Nov 12 can't come fast enough $ONDS
Long $ONDS NFA