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Current Book: $NBIS $ONDS $AAOI | Conviction Trader, in the game for 3 years *Not financial advice, I'm sharing my own research*

Joined August 2024
Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)Photo by Hugo 🇨🇦 (@OutOfStockPod)
Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
Citizens estimates a ~$160B addressable market for $ONDS but what really stands out to me is that ~$120B comes from counter-drone defense alone with ~$96B of that opportunity coming international. That international exposure is huge because allied militaries facing cheap drone threats cannot keep relying on million-dollar missiles which creates a growing need for better detection and interception systems that can be deployed at scale. And I almost look at rest of this chart as a roadmap for what Ondas could become with Stemme bringing ISR aircraft manufacturing in-house at ~25% factory utilization while autonomous ground systems and precision strike represent next logical pieces of a much broader defense platform.
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
The valuation disconnect between $ONDS and Anduril is pretty staggering. Anduril is reportedly looking to raise capital at a $120B valuation. Assuming $5B in net cash and $6B in 2027 revenue: Anduril: - Market valuation: $120B - Enterprise value: $115B - 2027 revenue: $6B - Forward EV/Sales: 19.2x Now look at Ondas: - Market cap: $3.4B - Enterprise value: $2.4B - 2027 projected revenue: $1B - Forward EV/Sales: 2.4x That means Anduril is being valued at nearly 8 TIMES the forward revenue multiple of Ondas. To put that into perspective, if Ondas traded at Anduril's implied multiple, its market cap would be approximately $20.2B, compared to $3.4B today. This is an implied share price of $34.83. I'm not suggesting the two companies deserve identical multiples, but I do not see how one can justify an 8x gap in forward revenue multiples between the two…
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
$ONDS is about to do a heavy reversal, IMO Respecting the support level perfectly Check out the RSI on the weekly, on the verge of breaking above the bearish formation If it does, the reversal is in NFA
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
I think one of the most underrated assets inside $ONDS is DZYNE's ULTRA which is an Air Force-deployed Group 5 drone that can stay airborne for over 3 days carrying ~400 pounds of sensors. And at just ~$10M compared to ~$40M for an MQ-9 you can see how the military could potentially field 4 ULTRAs for the price of one which fits perfectly with its growing push toward affordable mass.
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
Anthropic is reportedly committing over $600B to future compute after generating $16B in revenue on nearly $9B of compute spending during 1H26. That's ~$1.80 in revenue for every dollar spent on compute and and shows just how much future demand could flow toward AI infrastructure providers like $IREN, $CRWV and $NBIS.
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
$ONDS “But what about dilution?” Ondas issued shares to strategically buy top businesses, stack cash & land defense deals. Result: revenue exploding (guidance $525-550M), huge backlog, $270M+ new orders. Growth is outrunning the share count. That’s how you win.
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Shout out to the $ONDS bears Your time is ticking
BREAKING: Ukraine has launched a "massive aerial attack," consisting of over 1,000 drones, striking a major oil terminal in Russia. The attack comes exactly 7 days after President Trump said Ukraine and Russia had agreed to an "energy ceasefire." Following the announcement, Ukraine's President Zelensky quickly stated that he was unaware of such a ceasefire. This comes after President Trump asked Ukraine several times to refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure due to surging US diesel prices, which are up over +80% since January. Oil markets will reopen in 9 hours.
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$ONDS is entering its explosion phase. And it's not just revenue. Gross profit surged from $3M to $36M in just one year. An ~11x in 365 days. ONDS is assembling a platform for modern warfare, creating multiple avenues for growth as demand accelerates.
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
Last time $NBIS was below the 200-day SMA, it ran over 300%. Time to fly?
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
The more I look into $ONDS… The more evident it becomes that they do $1.5B WELL before the 2030 target. I mean, literally in 2027. “If we execute against the planned fourth quarter ramp, we expect to exit 2026 at $1 billion in annualized run rate revenue. Indeed, we are tracking well ahead of our 2030 target of $1.5 billion in revenue by perhaps a couple of years.” – Eric Brock, CEO
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
♟️ $ONDS PLAYING CHESS ♟️ What if one of the most criticized decisions by $ONDS management turns out to be one of its most brilliant chess moves? For months, shareholders have questioned why $ONDS continues issuing equity to acquire companies while sitting on approximately $1B in cash. The criticism is understandable and of course dilution matters, but after today's inflation data and the growing possibility of higher-for-longer rates, it's time we start looking at this from an entirely different perspective. What if management has been playing chess while everyone else has been counting shares? Let's just think about what $ONDS has been doing for a second... Management has been using equity as acquisition currency to consolidate strategic defense technologies, manufacturing capabilities, and established businesses, all while preserving an enormous cash position. Now consider the macroeconomic environment unfolding around us... We've got sticky inflation, elevated borrowing costs, and mounting pressure on companies dependent on external financing. In an environment like this, liquidity isn't just a pretty number on a balance sheet, it's actually a strategic weapon. While competitors may struggle to finance expansion, invest in R&D, or pursue acquisitions, $ONDS has the financial flexibility to keep building. And if tighter financial conditions create distressed acquisition opportunities, that billion-dollar war chest becomes even more valuable. Here's what makes this particularly interesting to me... Management has explicitly described its balance sheet as a strategic asset. They've been very consistent with this messaging. Perhaps preserving that liquidity was never an afterthought... What if it was central to the strategy this entire time? By the way, there's another layer to this... By using equity for acquisitions, $ONDS isn't simply buying businesses, it's aligning the sellers with the long-term success of the next-generation defense platform it's building. Instead of exhausting its cash reserves or taking on expensive debt, management is leveraging its equity to assemble capabilities while maintaining the financial flexibility to capitalize on future opportunities. That's a very different way to think about dilution. I will be the first to admit that none of this means dilution doesn't matter because it obviously does. We all know by now that the ultimate test is whether these acquisitions generate more value per share than the ownership being surrendered. But consider the possibility that what shareholders have interpreted as unnecessary dilution was actually a deliberate capital allocation strategy designed to preserve financial strength when access to capital could become increasingly valuable. The same macroeconomic environment creating headaches for leveraged competitors may be revealing $ONDS management's capital-allocation strategy as a stroke of genius. What looked like unnecessary dilution might actually turn out to have been one of the smartest moves on the board ♟️ We're playing the long game here... Keep going @CeoOndas
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
Replying to @VanquishTrader
It’s the only publicly traded Neo-defense prime that is comparable to Anduril in terms of comprehensive autonomous systems spanning all layers of the battlefield domain. Even legacy primes such as Lockheed utilize $ONDS systems in their products. And remember, defense procurement super-cycle is imminent. $1.5T will be spent from time of bill passage to 9/30/2027. ONDS commercial business is also impressive btw. Securing more and more contracts with nfl stadiums, semi conductor fabs, etc. The loitering ammunition business is really taking off as well. All of our business sectors are facing the opportunity of a lifetime. There is a reason why the director of the Mossad who could’ve gotten a job with any defensive contractor in the world outside of places like Iran retired and immediately took a job at ONDS after running Mossad for 20years. Just take a look at the American generals on our team as well. Stacked with heavy hitters… There’s so much going on with this company that I don’t blame the casual investor for not being able to follow and comprehend what is being built. The entire military is switching to the very systems PLTR and ONDS have built. At a $3B valuation, we are going to close the year at a $1 billion run rate, we have over $1 billion in cash, no debt, a bunch of amazing private equity positions, institutional ownership that is going absolutely parabolic, and a 49% short interest, all heading into the defense procurement super cycle, which kicks off most likely during the lame-duck session in November. Not to mention, we have presidential election cycle seasonality as a massive tailwind…. Literally entering the best period of the entire four year presidential election cycle, which has held true regardless of party, regardless of interest rates and regardless valuations.. That alone should sell it for people.
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$ONDS x $PLTR: Exclusive First Look at Regna AI with @CeoOndas and The Zero Hour Group. We couldn't be more excited about this developement! Let us know what you think about #RegnaAI in the comments below. Thanks again to Eric and the entire @OndasHoldings team for giving retail investors like ourselves a platform for the benefit of the community!
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
When it comes to dedicated small launch, nothing flies more often than Electron 🚀 We're proud to keep that momentum going in the lead up to our 100th launch. Here's what's on the manifest for our next three missions: 🦅 "We're Not Hawking Around" – @HawkEye360 | NET Oct 21 🌊 "The Sea God Surveys" – @QPS_Inc | NET Nov 4 ⛰️ "The Mountain God Rises" – @QPS_Inc | NET Nov 10
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
WHY $ONDS MAY BE THE MOST MISUNDERSTOOD DEFENSE NAME IN THE MARKET The biggest reason I think Ondas is so misunderstood is that most investors still look at the company as a rollup of unrelated defense assets rather than asking whether those assets can eventually operate as one integrated autonomous platform. That has also been my biggest hesitation because management has acquired roughly 19 businesses across drones, stratospheric systems, ground robots, sensors and command software, and the entire thesis only becomes much more valuable if those pieces are worth more together than they were separately. The Regna AI announcement with $PLTR is the clearest answer I have seen so far because it introduces a shared intelligence layer that can coordinate those different platforms from the same mission data which starts turning Ondas from a collection of defense products into a system where air, ground and persistent surveillance assets can operate together under one architecture. Thats really important because Regna is being built around exact environments modern defense systems have to survive including jammed GPS, degraded communications and situations where constant cloud connectivity cannot be assumed because an autonomous defense platform that stops functioning when the connection disappears is not really autonomous so pushing more intelligence toward the edge allows drones and other systems to keep operating locally while humans still maintain oversight around mission decisions. If Ondas can prove that the same intelligence layer can coordinate a drone, a stratospheric platform and a ground robot inside one mission even when communications are degraded, then the value of each acquisition begins increasing through the rest of the portfolio and the company has a much stronger argument for larger program level deployments rather than one off hardware sales. The $PLTR relationship is the second major reason I added because Palantir contributes far more than another AI model. It already has deep relationships across the Pentagon and allied governments, an operating platform built around sensitive mission data and forward deployed engineering teams that know how to put software into real organizations rather than simply demonstrate it. That can help close one of the biggest gaps smaller defense companies face, which is not always building the technology but earning enough institutional trust to put that technology inside mission critical workflows. The sovereign AI angle makes the partnership even more interesting because governments increasingly want systems they can control, train on their own mission data and operate inside their own environments, and Regna appears designed around exactly that demand rather than asking customers to send sensitive information through an external consumer AI platform. That is why I view today as a thesis de risking event rather than proof that the thesis is complete, because Ondas still has enormous execution risk around integrating so many acquisitions, funding another new platform and proving that Regna actually works in real deployments. But the company finally showed me the mechanism through which the rollup can become a platform, with Ondas supplying the physical assets, Regna acting as the common intelligence layer and Palantir providing the infrastructure, engineering support and credibility needed to reach much larger defense customers. I think the market still sees Ondas as a collection of small drone and robotics businesses, while I increasingly see the beginnings of an integrated autonomous defense platform across air, ground, sensing and AI and if Regna proves that architecture works under denied conditions then the ceiling on the entire company moves materially higher.
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Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
Introducing IonStrike by DZYNE Technologies, a $ONDS Sentinel company. IonStrike is an autonomous kinetic interceptor system. Its mission is to physically destroy hostile drones in flight, specifically large strike drones of the Shahed-136 class. IonStrike is being tested by the US Army 52 Air Defense Artillery Brigade in Europe as part of the initiative to deter threats to NATO eastern flank. Full specifications are provided in the image below. Further information about IonStrike will be presented to us in the Q4.
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$ASTS is at $50. What happens if just 10% of its partners’ subscribers end up using the service? That’s the math I think more people should be keeping in mind with this name. $ASTS doesn’t need to beat SpaceX. The two can both win. The thesis is simple, connect regular phones directly to satellites so coverage extends beyond the reach of cell towers. - Driving through dead zones. - Working in rural areas. - Traveling somewhere remote. - Reaching your family when a storm knocks out the local network. People already pay every month to stay connected. Making that connection more dependable has value. And look at it from the carrier’s perspective. Better coverage without building a tower everywhere. Another feature to sell. A reason for customers to upgrade their plans. A reason for them to stay. Why wouldn’t a carrier want to include satellite coverage in a premium package if the service works and the economics make sense? You don’t necessarily need hundreds of millions of people going out and buying a separate satellite subscription. Adoption could come through the phone plans they already have. That’s what makes AST’s distribution so interesting. AST has reported partnerships with 60+ mobile operators covering more than 3 BILLION subscribers, including relationships with AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone. Now look at what reaching a fraction of that base could mean. Assume AST eventually receives an average of $4 per month per paying subscriber, after the carrier’s share: • 3% adoption = 90 million users = $4.3 billion annual revenue. • 7% = 210 million users = $10.1 billion. • 10% = 300 million users = $14.4 billion. • 15% = 450 million users = $21.6 billion Now, what could that mean for the stock? Using roughly one-third net margins, 30× earnings and 500 million future diluted shares: 3% adoption is roughly $85 per share. 7% is roughly $200. 10% is roughly $290. 15% is roughly $430. You can get to multiples of today’s price with a minority of the subscriber base its partners already serve. And is 10–15% adoption an absurd outcome over time if carriers bundle reliable satellite coverage into attractive plans? I don’t think so. At around $50, that’s why I think $ASTS belongs in the conversation about the most compelling long-term risk/reward opportunities in the market. How many companies have a credible route to that many customers and and need only a fraction of them to transform the business?
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