Phil MrOil

BREAKING: US diesel inventories dropped -3.6 million barrels last week, to 99.3 million barrels, the lowest level since May 2003. Since January 2026, distillate fuel oil inventories have declined -33.7 million barrels, or -25%. Furthermore, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell -399,000 barrels last week, to 282.2 million barrels, its lowest since October 1982. Since March, oil inventories in the SPR have dropped by -133.2 million barrels, or -32%. Meanwhile, commercial crude oil stocks excluding the SPR declined -865,000 barrels last week, to 409.8 million barrels, their lowest reading since July 31st. US fuel reserves are being depleted at a rapid pace.

Saudi Arabia has been exporting crude so far this month at a rate that suggests the kingdom has lifted its oil production toward the 9-10 million b/d range. Using both the Persian Gulf and (more importantly) the Red Sea, Riyadh has boosted crude exports during the first 22 days of October to >7 million b/d, reaching pre-war levels (see @Vortexa chart below). Adding clean and dirty refined product, the export flow Oct 1-22 reaches ~8.5m b/d, slightly below pre-war levels of >9m b/d. The crude export surge -- and the production boost -- could be part of a "use-while-you-can" strategy aimed at pumping ahead of the potential restart of the war post US midterms (or before the Houthis of Yemen damage another key oil installation -- several near misses already in recent days, including an attack that killed two contractors near a major oilfield). Note: using Oct 1-2 as typically it takes at least five days for dark transits across the SoH to become clear.

#OOTT | US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 16-Oct: -3.060M (est -340K; prev -8.557M) - Distillate: +1.675M (est -1.240M; prev -2.527M) - Cushing: +987K (prev +1.862M) - Gasoline: -2.952M (est -310K; prev +3.518M) - Refinery: -0.10% (est 0.00%; prev +0.8%)

BREAKING: Ukraine has just struck the NZNP Rostovsky oil products export terminal in Rostov-on-Don and set it ablaze, hours after the US-Russia diesel deal and Trump lifting sanctions on Russian fuel exports. This is a products export terminal, exactly where the diesel would leave Russia under the deal. Ukrainian military sources said earlier today that the Trump administration's attempt to use Russian diesel to lower US prices before the midterms "will bear no fruit."

BREAKING: G7 nations will release as much as 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from their strategic stocks over 4 months. French President Emmanuel Macron, who chaired the G7 leaders meeting, said the release will be coordinated by the International Energy Agency.

🇮🇷 Kpler’s data on Iranian oil exports is suddenly under a microscope after attention turned to the politics of one of its most prominent Iran analysts. Homayoun Falakshahi, who leads Kpler’s crude oil analysis team, uses Iran’s pre-1979 Pahlavi-era flag on his X profile, which has prompted questions about his political sympathies and the perceived neutrality of Kpler’s Iran coverage. He has also been a key voice behind Kpler’s claim that Iranian crude loadings fell to zero in September under the U.S. naval blockade. That doesn’t make the numbers wrong. Other tanker trackers, including Bloomberg and Vortexa, have also reported a halt in Iranian loadings. But when politically sensitive, market-moving data relies heavily on analysts with openly held views on the country they cover, people are inevitably going to start asking harder questions about neutrality. Writer: Ian

Flights are sooooooooo expensive right now. Just booked a flight and the flight is more expensive than the 8 day trip. Insane.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇬🇱 President Trump says US reached deal with Denmark giving it "permanent control over security" in Greenland.

Something to mull over: 1) Why the Saudis never used SoH dark transits in size? 2) If they use SoH transits in size now — and they are starting — can they replicate UAE/Iraq/Kuw success? 3) If they can, what happens when — rather than if — the East-West pipeline comes back?

In a newly reported account of events from July, Iranian hard-liners deliberately sabotaged a U.S.-Iran peace agreement by orchestrating a clandestine attack on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the New York Times reports, citing Iranian officials, IRGC members and former officials. President Masoud Pezeshkian and much of Iran’s senior leadership were reportedly unaware of the operation in advance. After learning of the attack, Pezeshkian angrily confronted IRGC commander Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, who said he had neither authorized nor known about it. Iranian government and security inquiries later traced the decision to a hard-line faction linked to influential cleric and former IRGC intelligence chief Hossein Taeb, who had opposed the peace deal from the outset, according to the report. The NYT says the dispute exposed a deeper power struggle between officials favoring renewed negotiations with Washington and hard-line commanders pushing for escalation, including attacks on U.S. naval forces and regional oil infrastructure. The hard-line faction has since gained the upper hand.

Chevron Corp.’s $7 billion expansion in Venezuela will be funded with profits from crude produced and sold from the Latin American country rather than outside cash injections, according to the head of the oil giant. The company’s plans to double production to more than 600,000 barrels a day in the next five years will be funded by its three Venezuelan joint ventures, Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth said at the University of Texas’ Energy Symposium in Austin Friday. “We’ll live within the means of those ventures ability to generate cash, not bring in cash from the outside,” Wirth said. #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Oil demand estimates (IEA) in mbpd over time #oott