PaneerCap

columbus, ohio

NOW & FTNT implosions after people moved into sw w Azure accelerating a + for AI means tomorrow might be another 9 sigma factor day

release all the numbers. does 80% yoy become 65% when you remove passthru inference? what does it become when you remove ai natives? and how much of it is from one time software license --> service transition? fcf, RPO, cRPO? op margin non-gaap, gaap? dilution? curious ppls want to know ps: @alighodsi happy for your success. the world is big and life long. xitter.gq/bhorowitz/status/21150…

honestly have no idea what frontier lab equity is worth; it seems highly plausible that huge top down slowdowns are coming, which would make frontier models uncompetitive. total nationalization also seems possible. anything could happen with this technology

NEW: Brian Resnick from Davis Polk restructuring team now on scene at Weil and wind-down now being actively discussed among options: ft.com/content/69ccfcb0-3f5e…

What’s the best age to buy a Rolex?

MORGAN STANLEY WARNS OF BRAZIL MARKET SELLOFF Morgan Stanley forecasts a 20%–30% drop in Brazilian equities following Lula's election victory. The bank sees USD/BRL reaching 5.60, potentially 6.00 if fiscal concerns worsen, alongside 300–400 bps of pressure on interbank rates. The key takeaway: Rising fiscal risks threaten Brazil's currency, bonds and equities. Related tickers: $EWZ, $PBR, $VALE

The craziest reveal in You Can See Everything is actually the fact that she never sold secondary

I don’t think rev revisions will peak unless/until CapEx growth revisions peak. Once revs slow, a 10+ yr period of rising FCF margins begins. Or so is my hope. Better said, if CapEx growth < rev growth when rev revisions peak, I think they perform well. Perfect world for semis is CapEx % OCF just slowly declines to normalized levels (say ~40-50% w/ 40-60% OCF mgns, i.e., ~25-30% Hyper terminal FCF mgns [terminal ROIC / FCF mgn varies by Hyper: MSFT has high OCF mgns / low asset turnover, AMZN has higher asset to / lower ocf mgns, naturally … terminal CapEx % revs function of asset to]) while Hyper OCF grows 20-30% for a long time + neos/on-prem also grows fast. Possible. Feels like threading a needle. I own a lot of semis + Hypers.