@PatrickRuffini

Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”

 Virginia
patrickruffini.com
Joined March 2007
  • Tweets96.2K
  • Following2.8K
  • Followers67.1K
8.6KMedia
Coming November 4: The paperback edition of Party of the People, with a new epilogue on the 2024 election.
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Difficult to understate just how stable the polling has been this fall, estimating a D+9.3 shift in the Senate from 2024 when adjusted for seat mix. It eerily traces the same line as 2020.
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A few wet bedsheets this morning
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker202415h
Fox News (Beacon/Shaw) poll | 10/15-10/19 LV US Senate Texas 2026 🟥Ken Paxton 49% 🟦James Talarico 49%
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What’s said at Trump rallies ranks pretty close to the bottom on the list of things that matter. Remember the Tony Hinchcliffe set?
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Happy to be proven wrong, but Republicans aren’t losing Wyoming
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*taps the sign*
Owen Winter@OwenWntr15h
In *every* election for *both* House and Senate since 1998, polls have overestimated Democrats by more in red states than blue states (and vice versa)
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Just a reminder that whatever narratives emerge on 11/3 aren’t likely to last very long.
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In the grand sweep of American history, it’s not normal or natural for someone from New York to care who the Senator from Kansas is
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2028 starts in two weeks
Patrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini15h
Just a reminder that a populist affordability agenda is ending forever wars and cutting government spending
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Just a reminder that a populist affordability agenda is ending forever wars and cutting government spending
Echelon Insights
@EchelonInsights21h
LESS GUNS AND BUTTER: For a lower cost of living, voters select ending the Iran war and cutting government spending the most frequently. Democrats lean to Iran war and cutting tariffs, while Republicans lean to spending cuts and domestic oil production.
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Patrick Ruffini retweeted
Echelon Insights
@EchelonInsights21h
NEW FINDING: Voters list ending the Iran war and cutting government spending as the top ways to improve cost of living. Building housing and expanding the child tax credit rank the lowest of options given.
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Useful context for early voting
Echelon Insights
@EchelonInsights16h
PARTISANS FOR POSTAL STAMPS: Voters who say they are voting for Democratic governors and senators are far more likely to say they vote by mail. Meanwhile, election day voters lean toward Republicans!
There's a new version of this post
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Any discourse about one race on the ballot “dragging down” another race is mostly fake. The most egregious example of this was Mark Robinson 2024 dragging down Trump lol.
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If AI were going to kill jobs, the AI labs themselves wouldn’t have massive headcounts
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Patrick Ruffini retweeted
Tom Bonier
@tbonierOct 21
I believe this is now the third pollster this year who has been caught either entirely faking polls, or manually changing their poll results. The polling industry doesn't need reform, the industry built around how these polls are reported on and aggregated does.
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News Alert: There are in fact ET people who are deeply weird and/or psychopaths
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I may be slop-pilled, but hopefully it's tasteful, refined, well-curated slop.
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Was recently asked what next gen leader I admired. Only one answer: @MattLira
Logan Dobson
@LoganDobsonOct 19
"@MattLira, a longtime Republican operative, has agreed to lead a nonpartisan group that will promote an initiative whereby all American newborns would get taxpayer-funded investment accounts." Proud to know Matt and to support this game-changing policy!
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This and a certain Thatcher quote have been vilified but are things I unironically believe in
John Kartch
@johnkartchOct 19
Happy birthday to Americans for Tax Reform President @GroverNorquist
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2027: AI solves mathematics 2047 or later: AI solves Midwest polling error
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Where I think AI hits a wall in the near term is in the ability for businesses to metabolize the work it produces. It’s productive af but actually evaluating its output is exhausting.
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