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Seattle, WA
Joined November 2020
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Market movements (metals?)
Sector Rotation
☑️ Capital shifts between sectors as the economic cycle progresses, driven primarily by changing expectations regarding growth, inflation, and monetary policy.
☑️ The chart above illustrates the relative performance of sectors—such as technology, industrials, utilities, and healthcare—across the stages of early growth, expansion, slowdown, recession, and recovery. It also highlights specific rotation timing, such as shifting from technology to industrials at the peak of expansion, or from industrials to utilities during a slowdown.
☑️ Timing sector rotation is challenging because economic cycles are rarely perfect, and unexpected events can rapidly alter sector leadership.
With limited capital, rotation is essential. Which stage are we in now?
(Join the group to get the latest information)
Peter retweeted
The economic lockdowns of 2020 were the greatest crime ever committed against the people of the world.
The "once in 100 year virus" narrative was just the excuse to lockdown the economy which halted money velocity, allowing them to print $6 trillion and bail out the system without causing hyper-inflation.
They destroyed small businesses, careers and lives of regular people to save their billionaire buddies.
Peter retweeted
80% of the US economy barely moves, even in recessions.
The entire business cycle lives in the other 20%.
Headline GDP blends it all together and buries the signal.
Here's how to read GDP in 4 steps:
1/
Brilliant analysis of the current economy
JustDarioCigarTime - Episode 80
⚠️ Ignoring The Obvious: The 2020 Crash Will Happen Again 🎙️
- Markets didn’t sell off because of US NFP
- The danger of extreme complacency
- Why the oil crisis will be blamed for the upcoming market crash
youtu.be/W8_YDTueMO8?si=TB-i…
Peter retweeted
Falling equities don’t always mean the same thing.
The real signal is in yields.
If stocks fall while short-end yields rise, it means markets are pricing:
Higher-for-longer rates, delayed cuts, or even renewed hike risk.
That is not a classic recession scare.
That is the market saying:
“The Fed can’t rescue risk assets yet.”
This setup usually pressures Nasdaq, AI, crypto, gold, silver, and anything duration-sensitive because discount rates and dollar pressure rise together.
But if stocks fall while yields fall, the message is completely different.
That is growth fear.
That is recession risk.
That is money running into bonds for safety and pricing future rate cuts.
So simple rule:
Stocks down + 2Y yield up = policy tightening shock.
Stocks down + yields down = growth scare / recession shock.
One is the market fearing higher rates.
The other is the market fearing weaker growth.
Same red equity candle.
Completely different macro message.
Peter retweeted
The oil crisis is about to explode and that will be the excuse used to blame the crash in AI, Private Credit, consumer lending, student debt, Japan economy and so on
Kevin Warsh will hold rates at first, then cut them and gear up QE to avoid a worldwide government debt crisis
Great interview about the new economy
We're in a Monetary Counter Revolution and the Fed Will Never Be the Same | Lior Gantz
youtu.be/gfTridpWOeU
Ty
slowly pealing away the layers
JustDarioCigarTime - Podcast Episode 54
⚠️ THE NVIDIA FAIRY TALE IS OVER🎙️
🔗 to podcast
youtu.be/mGr2U_PyaqE?si=SfCZ…
