Actuary. Gambler. Canadian. Small data. Correlated parlays. Inventor of probit vig removal. Husband. Father. Parrot parent. Speaker at Bet Bash '22 '24 '26.
Toronto, Ontario
Joined January 2013
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled is convincing people that sports betting is a contest of who knows the most about sports
Wishing Gina @rxgamble a massive success on her book launch tomorrow. It's an outstanding read, hopefully soon to be a hit HBO series.
Received a really cool gift last week - @rxgamble gave me an advance copy of her book Advantage Player. I knew I would like it because she writes so well on her blog and I love hearing casino AP stories, but this was another level. One of the best memoirs I've ever read, maybe the best.
Not just a casino story, this thing contains multitudes. It's a rags to riches journey. It's an intimate look into the psyche of someone who's been through some stuff. It's darkly funny. It would make a great movie. And I'm in a very small part of it! Pick it up when it comes out in a couple months.
Plus EV Analytics retweeted
A well established restaurant in Oakville can't find a Canadian to manage its restaurant?
Symposium Cafe is offering $36.92 an hour and has requested an LMIA to hire a temporary foreign worker.
Seriously? Not a single qualified Canadian citizen or permanent resident available?
Canadians are struggling to find jobs, yet we're being told employers can't find workers.
Something is seriously wrong with this system.
How much longer are Canadians supposed to accept this?
The Catholics of France aren't having the easiest time these days. Pretty cool gesture of support by the NFL...uh...setting up a Hail Mary activation at Notre Dame
I AM NOW IN THE WASTE MANAGEMENT BUSINESS:
Do you live in the great state of Oregon?
Do you have a (legal) betting account that's useless because it's limited to pennies?
DM me/email PlusEVAnalytics at outlook. I will help you recycle your junk account, we'll both make money.
Proposed solution to the "how to measure PM volume" issue:
Say I bet $1 against your $99; that is, 100 contracts trade at a price of 1 cent (or 99 cents, same thing)
Implied probability of cash flows: 1% chance that $99 changes hands, 99% chance that $1 changes hands.
Then, volume = 1% x $99 + 99% x $1 = $1.98.
More generally,
Volume = 2 x number of contracts traded x trade price x (1 - trade price).
The price x (1 - price) construct is how many PMs calculate fees so there's a nice synergy there.
Under my definition, the volume of this bet is $2.
xitter.cf/retardedgambler/status…
I've told lots of insurance executives that I'm terrified of underwriting cyber insurance because you have no idea what the next threat is going to be, where it's going to come from or how many policyholders will be impacted simultaneously. Most of them looked at me like I was from Mars.
The upside of the AI threat to humanity is you gotta think we'll get a resolution one way or the other to the whole "does God exist" thing
It seems like the strategy for DK Predictions is to behave so recklessly that it kamikazes the whole PM industry. I kinda like it.
A scoop from me: CBS-owned local stations' election coverage will be sponsored by DraftKings, a deal that has stirred concern inside the company. status.news/p/cbs-draftkings…
Cool angle here. I talked about this kind of correlated parlay opportunity in my Bet Bash talk where there's a shared hidden generator (minutes played). @CalvinAndHobo took it a step further by capturing inverse correlation between blocks/fouls and between fouls/minutes. Nice!
Most same game parlays stack legs that have nothing to do with each other 🙅♂️
@CalvinAndHobo breaks down the SGP that paid +4000, the correlation that books missed and how you can find edges like it today 🏀
New Legendary Loopholes video, out now 🚨
Presented by @ProphetX
The "Timeless Ticket" is what happens when you don't fully think your ideas through before acting on them
Interesting conversation,
"The analytics say 51% under some generalized assumptions but I'm not accepting it blindly because I might have more context-specific insight" is fine IMO.
"I don't get enough trials to realize the long run so I'm rejecting analytics" is not fine IMO. Classic failure to think probabilistically.
Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation won’t convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table
“I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it.”
“As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually I’ll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. I’ve been doing it too long.”
“But what I want to know from him, when it’s not a feel, when it, no, this is 98%. We don’t even need to talk about it. So we don’t need to talk about it. Tell me when it’s that, and I’ll just do it.”
Imagine being a boomer who grew up with horse racing, seeing it crumble over the decades, then finding out the sport you love has one last chance at salvation and it's this
