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Israel, partial count (31% of the electorate, 3,906 ballot boxes, read 4:51 am Israel time): @PollsterGraph projection gives Likud 27 seats (80% range 25–28) and Netanyahu's bloc 56 (54–58); 61 or more in <1% of simulations. pollstergraph.com/results/il…
🇮🇱 ISRAEL ELECTION UPDATE
With 6.5% of the electorate counted, PollsterGraph projects:
• Likud: 29 seats
• Yashar: 21 seats
Likud is projected to finish first in over 99% of simulations, but Netanyahu's bloc has just a 14% chance of reaching the 61-seat majority.
Who wins the most Knesset seats? Here, PollsterGraph and Polymarket answered essentially the same question, but reached opposite conclusions.
PollsterGraph: Likud 70.5%, Yashar 28.5%.
Polymarket: Likud 32.5%, Yashar 67.5%.
Full forecast: pollstergraph.com
Who becomes prime minister?
Our model, conditional on this Knesset forming a government: Netanyahu 41%, Eisenkot 33%.
Polymarket, predicting the first PM sworn in by the end of 2027, including after a possible new election: Eisenkot 58%, Netanyahu 25%.
How did the model perform historically?
Tested on seven Israeli elections from 2013 to 2022, the actual seat count for Netanyahu's camp fell within the model's 80% prediction range in 6 of 7 elections.
Each election was forecast using a model fitted on the other six.
Winning the most seats is not the same as securing a majority.
Netanyahu's bloc averaged 53.5 seats, reaching the 61-seat threshold in just 8% of simulations.
The opposition without Arab parties averaged 51.7 seats, reaching 61 in 5%, or 24% in a coalition with Ra'am.
Likud was projected to win 24.4 seats on average, followed by Yashar with 21.9 and Together with 12.4.
Four smaller parties faced uncertainty around Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, where a fraction of a percentage point can determine whether a party enters parliament.
🇮🇱 Israel has voted. What did our model predict before the election?
Using 84 polls from 9 firms and 40,000 simulations, PollsterGraph gave Netanyahu's Likud a 70% chance of winning the most seats, against 29% for Eisenkot's Yashar.
