Post Surgery

After securing barely one recognition in five years, Afghan Taliban are on course to lose that one too. China has reportedly downgraded its relations with Taliban and urged Russia to revoke its recognition too. Having experienced Taliban intransigence firsthand during the Urumqi Process and Trilateral Dialogue, China appears frustrated. The Taliban’s links with terrorist groups, including TTP, BLA and East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), have been documented by the UNSC Sanctions Monitoring Team. The Taliban regime is threatening China’s mainland security and also its strategic BRI projects in Pakistan and Central Asia. The Hormuz closure may have further heightened these concerns in China. TTP has repeatedly targeted Chinese projects in Pakistan, most notable being the deadly attack on Chinese engineers in Dasu. The TTP-BLA nexus is no secret. They have established an elaborate working relationship, while BLA chief Bashir Zeb resides in Kabul. Similarly, ISKP remains a persistent threat to Russia following the 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow. The growing rift is increasingly visible. Last month, the Taliban inaugurated a road to the Chinese border in Badakhshan to bypass Pakistan. However, Beijing refused to send even its officials. As Zhu Yongbiao, Director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University observed: “Afghanistan's economy is very small and its value to China is negligible. Meanwhile, the financial costs and security risks associated with opening the route would be substantial.” In the meantime, Taliban factions are consumed by internal power struggles. Haibatullah, Sirajuddin, Yaqoob and others are busy cultivating alliances with transnational militant groups for a possible civil war.