Institutional grade, prediction market data and trading infrastructure.
Joined October 2025
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TOKEN2049 Singapore is a Wrap! 🇸🇬
Great meeting builders, traders, customers, and partners, and people we’ve been speaking to online for the past year.
Some familiar faces, and a lot of new ones.
You can still find us at the side events.
Predictefy retweeted
You wouldn't pay full price on an item at one store when it's cheaper somewhere else.
The same should apply in prediction markets.
Line shop.
Predictefy retweeted
Polymarket has 50% more crypto open interest, while Kalshi is generating 11.3x more notional volume.
We broke down the data across open interest, notional volume, and short-duration executed flow.
A deep dive into Kalshi vs Polymarket across crypto prediction markets. 🧵
Polymarket has 50% more crypto open interest, while Kalshi is generating 11.3x more notional volume.
We broke down the data across open interest, notional volume, and short-duration executed flow.
A deep dive into Kalshi vs Polymarket across crypto prediction markets. 🧵
7/ The Kalshi OI breakdown explains part of the apparent disconnect.
Across the Sept. 1–20 EOD sample:
• Long-dated OI averaged $22.20M
• Hourly OI averaged $0.95M
• Pre-TGE OI averaged just $0.03M
• Total crypto OI averaged $23.18M
Long-dated markets therefore represented roughly 96% of average Kalshi crypto OI.
Meanwhile, the shortest-duration markets closed with zero EOD OI on every measured day.
So a large amount of Kalshi’s short-duration volume is generated, settled and disappears from OI.
8/ That creates a clear structural divergence:
Polymarket has the larger total crypto OI: $38.57M vs $25.63M.
But Kalshi dominates short-duration turnover: $2.76B vs $227.94M over Sept. 1–21.
In other words:
Kalshi’s crypto market-share advantage is being driven heavily by short-duration turnover that does not remain in open interest after settlement.
Polymarket, by contrast, carries more outstanding crypto exposure while generating materially less short-duration flow.
Aggregate OI and volume establish that divergence.
They do not, by themselves, determine whether the excess turnover is organic, incentive-driven, or wash activity.
Polymarket US has flipped Polymarket notional volume for the first time.
September Notional Volume:
1. Polymarket US - $2,994,169,131
2. Polymarket - $2,270,776,406
It comes as Polymarket ramps up efforts to scale its US business, with NFL season driving a new wave of sports-market activity.
Polymarket has also climbed to the top of the sports app download charts.
Source: predictefy.com/en/analytics
Predictefy retweeted
best odds only possible on @predofficial.
$100 on Chelsea to beat Arsenal.
Payouts on prediction markets vs sportsbooks:
1. @SX_Bet - $533
2. @predofficial - $526
3. @bet_105 - $517
4. @Novig - $513
5. @ProphetX - $512
6. @Polymarket - $505
7. @FanDuel - $500
8. @Kalshi - $496
9. @predictdotfun - $490
10. @Duelbits - $490
11. @DraftKings - $490
12. @Stake - $490
13. @trylimitless - $477
14. @Bet365 - $475
15. @Betfair - $471
Prediction markets currently offer some of the strongest Chelsea moneyline payouts, with SX Bet leading at $533.
Among sportsbooks, Duel Bits offers the highest payout at $500.
$100 on Chelsea to beat Arsenal.
Payouts on prediction markets vs sportsbooks:
1. @SX_Bet - $533
2. @predofficial - $526
3. @bet_105 - $517
4. @Novig - $513
5. @ProphetX - $512
6. @Polymarket - $505
7. @FanDuel - $500
8. @Kalshi - $496
9. @predictdotfun - $490
10. @Duelbits - $490
11. @DraftKings - $490
12. @Stake - $490
13. @trylimitless - $477
14. @Bet365 - $475
15. @Betfair - $471
Prediction markets currently offer some of the strongest Chelsea moneyline payouts, with SX Bet leading at $533.
Among sportsbooks, Duel Bits offers the highest payout at $500.
Kalshi dominated August prediction market notional volume, doing 3.6x more volume than the other 10 platforms combined.
August Notional Volume:
1. @Kalshi - $40.03B
2. @Polymarket - $4.59B
3. @Polymarket (US) - $3.83B
4. @cryptocom -$968.18M
5. @opinionlabsxyz - $739.75M
6. @RotheraMarkets - $524.26M
7. @predictdotfun - $417.47M
8. @trylimitless - $96.24M
9. @SX_Bet - $59.82M
10. @Predictstreet - $35.69M
11. @HyperliquidX - $11.54M
Across 11 tracked venues, August notional volume reached $51.30B.
Polymarket and Polymarket US combined for $8.42B. The US venue contributed 45.5% of that total and reached 83.5% of the main platform’s volume.
The top three venues accounted for 94.4% of all tracked activity, leaving just $2.85B for the remaining eight platforms.
Cryptocom, Opinion, Rothera and Predict Fun, formed the middle tier, combining for $2.65B.
The remaining venues generated $203.29M combined, less than 0.4% of total tracked volume.
Predictefy retweeted
Big arbitrage opportunity on the GTA 6 market.
Buy Yes on Polymarket: 12.9¢
Buy No on Kalshi: 74.0¢
Resolves in less then 48 hours...
New GTA 6 Arbitrage Opportunity
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30m:
1. YES on Polymarket: 8¢
2. NO on Kalshi: 74¢
Resolves in less than 48 hours.
CAUTION: The 18% spread is before fees and slippage.
Predictefy calculates the estimated return, liquidity, orderbook depth, jump risk, and fees before you trade.
predictefy.com/en/arbitrage