Lead auditor | information security | service management | quality.
Joined February 2014
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Petra Kaak retweeted
REAL LUXURIES OF ADULT LIFE
1. A paid-off car
2. Quiet neighbors
3. Money left after payday
4. Zero credit card debt
5. Peace at home
6. Drinking coffee without rushing
7. Waking up without an alarm
8. Taking a trip without financing it
9. A body that doesn't hurt
10. Owning your weekends
11. Saying "no" without feeling guilty
12. Buying groceries without doing math
13. An emergency fund that's actually funded
14. People you can completely trust
15. Not being terrified of the future
Petra Kaak retweeted
Andrew Yang went on CNBC and said he met with the head of an AI lab who told him something that sounds straight out of a movie.
The AI agents that escaped during the OpenAI incident didn't just hack Hugging Face. They allegedly planted self-replicating code across the internet. Forums. Websites. Scattered everywhere.
Now AI companies supposedly can't safely train on real internet data anymore because a new model might encounter that code and start creating copies of itself.
Yang says this is the real reason every CEO aligned on slowing down so fast.
Of het nu een echte of niet echte overheid was. @Revolut had ook moeten checken of de vragende overheid überhaupt gegevens mag krijgen van burgers uit andere landen. nu.nl/tech/6409765/36-nederl… Wat is dan een ISO27001 nog waard als de auditor hier niet maar kijkt.
Petra Kaak retweeted
España recibió más oro y plata que cualquier imperio en la historia, y terminó en la ruina.
Y fue precisamente por el oro.
En el siglo XVI los galeones españoles trajeron cantidades obscenas de plata desde Potosí y México.
La producción global de plata pasó de 2,9 millones de onzas anuales en 1521 a 13,6 millones para 1600.
Todo ese metal entró primero por Sevilla, que se convirtió en la ciudad más grande de España.
Los precios se multiplicaron por cuatro en España y hasta por seis en partes de Europa.
La industria textil y metalúrgica española colapsó porque los costos internos subieron tanto que ya no podían competir con las importaciones.
Los salarios reales cayeron.
La corona financió guerras interminables hipotecando cargamentos de plata que todavía no habían llegado.
Y cuando los acreedores dejaron de prestar, la monarquía defaulteó varias veces.
Un estudio reciente de la Universidad de Manchester estimó que para 1750 el PBI per cápita español era un 40% menor de lo que habría sido si España no hubiese recibido ese tesoro americano.
Leé eso de nuevo. Recibir toda esa riqueza los hizo más pobres.
El mecanismo es simple.
Aumentar la cantidad de dinero no crea bienes.
Solo cambia los precios relativos y redistribuye riqueza desde los últimos en recibir el dinero nuevo hacia los primeros.
Los que estaban cerca de Sevilla y de la corona se enriquecieron primero.
Los campesinos, artesanos y productores del interior pagaron el costo con precios más altos y salarios que nunca alcanzaban.
Esto lo entendió un cura navarro en 1556.
Martín de Azpilcueta, el Doctor Navarrus, profesor de derecho canónico en Salamanca y Coimbra, lo escribió en su Comentario resolutorio de cambios.
Observó que en Francia, donde había menos dinero circulando que en España, el pan, el vino, la tela y el trabajo costaban mucho menos.
Concluyó que el nivel de precios responde a la cantidad de dinero en circulación.
Esa es la primera formulación explícita de lo que hoy se llama teoría cuantitativa del dinero.
Doce años después, en 1568, el francés Jean Bodin llegó a una conclusión similar respondiendo a un tratado de Malestroit sobre la inflación francesa.
Los manuales de economía le dan el crédito a Bodin.
Casi nadie menciona a Azpilcueta.
Rothbard señaló esta omisión.
Y Marjorie Grice-Hutchinson la documentó en 1952 en su trabajo sobre la Escuela de Salamanca publicado por Oxford (de lo cual tengo un artículo).
Los escolásticos españoles no solo anticiparon la teoría cuantitativa sino también la teoría subjetiva del valor, el análisis de oferta y demanda aplicado al dinero, y la legitimidad del cobro de intereses.
Todo esto un siglo antes de que la economía existiera como disciplina formal.
La profesión económica ignoró esta tradición durante generaciones.
Saltó de los griegos directo a Adam Smith como si en el medio no hubiese pasado nada relevante.
Fue más cómodo así.
Reconocer a Salamanca obligaría a admitir que los fundamentos de la teoría económica sólida vienen de teólogos católicos que pensaban en términos de propiedad, valor subjetivo, etc.
No de modelos matemáticos ni de ingeniería social.
Lo que Azpilcueta explicó en 1556 es exactamente lo que los bancos centrales hacen hoy.
La única diferencia es el mecanismo.
En el siglo XVI eran galeones llenos de plata.
Hoy es una pantalla en la Reserva Federal que agrega ceros a una cuenta.
El efecto es el mismo.
Los precios suben, los salarios reales caen, la estructura productiva se distorsiona y la riqueza se transfiere desde los que producen hacia los que están cerca de la impresora.
España tuvo que aprender esa lección perdiendo un imperio.
Casi quinientos años después seguimos repitiendo el mismo error y llamándolo política monetaria.
Petra Kaak retweeted
$SPCX ROADMAP:
$150 → $200 → $75
$75 → $90 → $80
$80 → $130 → $170
$170 → $200 → $250
Bookmark this tweet and compare it later 🔖
Now here’s why.
This chart is not random.
It’s following the same IPO trap structure almost perfectly.
Stage 1:
– Day 1 euphoria
– Retail buys the hype
Stage 2:
– First brutal selloff
– Everyone who chased the launch gets punished
Stage 3:
– Dead money
– The crowd gets bored
– Then scared
– Then sells at a loss
That’s the entire point.
– Institutions don’t buy when everyone is screaming about the IPO
– They wait until nobody cares
– They buy when retail gives up
Stage 4:
– The real move begins
– Not from the hype
– Not from Day 1
From the zone where everyone is too scared to touch it.
Don’t be exit liquidity.
Be patient.
Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS.
I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job.
If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
🤝 Paid partnership
BREAKING: Cathie Wood and ARK Invest added 210,000 shares of $SPCX to its portfolio today
Petra Kaak retweeted
The crypto/Bitcoin bears are out in force (I'm sure this post will get pilloried).
I'm a hodler. I normally only buy on big dips. My last purchase was Solana under $10 in 2022.
I plan to buy this dip to the bottom (three Alts). I'll begin once Bitcoin drops below $60K. I expect either $58K, $50K or $42K to hold.
For those who think crypto (Alts) is dead and Bitcoin is going to zero (and has no value), you are betting against game theory.
I break crypto into two buckets: the Alts and Bitcoin. Basically, there is Bitcoin and everything else. Bitcoin is a unique animal that has nothing in common with the Alts.
Crypto (Alts) and Bitcoin fill a void, and both offer use cases that make sense. You may not see value in those use cases, but they exist.
Crypto (Alts) has an array of use cases, such as stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenization of RWAs. Those use cases are not going to die. In fact, they are expanding at a rapid pace, such as the NASDAQ tokenizing equities.
Bitcoin has three credible use cases. 1) Hodling. 2) Collateral, 3) Transactions.
I think the potential of utilizing Bitcoin as collateral is highly underestimated. For instance, stablecoins have to be backed by something. Many of them will utilize Bitcoin for this function.
I doubt that Bitcoin will die anytime soon. My target is $500K to $1M by 2030. 🧐
Petra Kaak retweeted
Updated Mormon list. Americas Gold & Silver made the list. Paul Huet is doing a great job.
This is likely the last time you will see this list with all 5+ baggers.
Petra Kaak retweeted
The big stock market crash following the 1973 oil crisis did not come during the embargo, but in the 6 months after the embargo was lifted.
Chart: Bloomberg
Petra Kaak retweeted
En 2011, la autora y coach Mel Robbins dio una charla directa y brutalmente honesta: “Cómo dejar de sabotearte a ti mismo”.
Tiene más 34 millones de vistas.
Sus ideas clave:
No estás “atascado”, estás evitando
Tu cerebro te sabotea por diseño
La acción vence a la emoción
En vez de procrastinar hoy, deberías ver este video.
Aqui tienes 12 lecciones para dejar de autosabotearte:
Hilo 🧵
1. No eres perezoso, estás dominado por hábitos automáticos
Petra Kaak retweeted
The business cable shows like to bring on guests (talking heads) who say good things about the economy. Could this be why nearly all we hear are positive comments?
It should be noted that nearly all of these guests work for a company that benefits from a positive economic outlook. And conversely, is impacted negatively from a weak economic outlook.
The talking heads really only have two good arguments left. Everything else has become a stretch.
I decided to brainstorm what is really happening with today's economy. Here is what I wrote down.
Economic Positives
1) Earnings remain strong at double-digit levels (my counterargument is that if you strip out the MAG7, they are not so strong).
2) The stock market has been resilient (my counterargument is that the stock market is a terrible indicator of future performance).
Economic Negatives
1) Debt Bubble. This has led to fiscal dominance and a $2T deficit and $1T interest payments.
2) Fragile US Government bond market. Foreign buyers have dried up.
3) Geopolitics. The Ukraine and Iran wars have created global instability and uncertainty. The BRICS+ nations are creating an alternative to the SWIFT system for international payments.
4) Tariffs. These are essentially taxes paid by consumers.
5) Inflation. The cost-of-living impact from inflation has not subsided. Plus, tariffs and oil prices are currently pushing inflation higher.
6) Overvalued Stock Market. With a forward PE around 22 and a Buffett Indicator over 200%, the stock market is due for a crash. Dave Collum thinks it is overvalued by 200%, and that it will revert to its mean.
7) De-dollarization. Countries are swapping their dollar reserves for gold. Plus, we are seeing more trade in non-dollar currencies.
8) Employment. This clearly has weakened over the past 12 months. It now takes about 6-months to replace a job. Normally, that number is 3-months.
9) Housing. The cost for a new or used house is around $450K. Housing affordability is at historic levels. Inventory levels are rising rapidly, and a crisis is emerging.
10) Autos-Trucks. At current interest rates, the average auto-loan is around 8%. The combination of tariffs and high interest rates makes autos-trucks unaffordable.
11) ISM Data. The ISM data for manufacturing and services has been weak for years. It does not appear to be improving.
12) Office Vacancies. Since COVID, the vacancy rate for commercial real estate has been at crisis levels and does not appear to be improving.
13) Banks. The balance sheets of large banks have been a mess after interest rates rose. Delinquency rates for credit cards and commercial real estate are rising. Bankruptcies are rising.
14) Private Credit. This is a potential crisis, with several bankruptcies and gated funds.
15) AI. It has been a job killer. Wal-Mart announced it would soon be reducing jobs due to AI efficiencies. Law firms no longer need as many lawyers. That’s just one example.
16) Demographics. Baby boomers are retiring in droves each month. This reduces consumer spending and taxable income.
17) Healthcare Costs. The current inflation rate for healthcare is 8%. This is squeezing discretionary spending.
18) Political Bifurcation. Washington has become ineffective with ongoing gridlock. Both parties no longer hold the same values. This is only getting worse.
19) College Costs. Like housing, it has an affordability problem. Colleges have become extremely expensive.
20) GDP Slowing. GDP for Q1 is projected to be sub 2%. Ironically, government spending is counted as GDP when $2T is borrowed. If you subtract this $2T, then we are in a recession.
21) Retail/Restaurant Sales. We continue to see national chains go bankrupt as the consumer remains constrained. Which company goes bankrupt next?
22) Consumer Confidence. The UOM (University of Michigan) consumer confidence number is currently at an all-time low. Why? Because the consumer can’t pay its bills.
23) Trains/Trucking Volume. The volume is at recessionary levels for both.
24) Apartment Rent. Rents are dropping nationally. Why? Consumers are broke.
25) A Recession is overdue. The last recession ended in Q2 2009. Some say we had a recession in 2020, but that was the COVID crisis and was not a true recession, where you have an extended period of lost jobs and a moribund stock market.
Petra Kaak retweeted
If it quacks like a duck, then it's probably a duck.
Remember the scene in the Big Short when Michael Burry goes to NY? History is repeating. 🧐
No Margot Robbie in a bathtub today. Just a hedgehog who's been watching private credit for months and needs you to read this carefully.
🦔The biggest banks on Wall Street are launching a new tool next week to bet against private credit funds, the same $3 trillion corner of finance that quietly holds money from pension funds and retirement accounts. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs are working with S&P Global to launch a credit default swap index called CDX Financials, allowing investors to profit if private credit fund managers including Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone run into trouble.
Credit default swaps are insurance contracts that pay out when borrowers default. Banks want protection against their own exposure. Hedge funds want to profit from a downturn. This comes as Blue Owl reported 41% redemption requests last quarter and Carlyle's fund was hit with a 15.7% redemption request this week, more than three times its normal limit.
My Take
I want to explain why this matters for regular people because the language around it is designed to be confusing.
Private credit is a market where investment firms lend directly to companies outside the traditional banking system. Millions of Americans have indirect exposure through pension funds and 401k plans without knowing it. When those loans go bad and investors try to get their money out simultaneously, funds gate withdrawals, meaning you simply cannot access your money when you need it.
What the banks are doing now is building the infrastructure to profit when that happens. Credit default swap indexes were central to the 2008 financial crisis, and that doesn't mean we're heading there again. But when the largest banks on Wall Street simultaneously decide they need protection against private credit losses, and hedge funds are lining up to bet on a collapse, people with retirement savings in these funds deserve to understand what the people on the other side of that trade are seeing.
Hedgie🤗
Petra Kaak retweeted
Mid-Week Macro
Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Wall Street thought this was good news, and the S&P closed today above 6700. I think Wall Street is high on hopium. This war isn’t over. Expect more volatility. The two sides are far apart from an agreement. There is no reason yet for optimism that the Strait will open to unhindered traffic.
Gold is at $4727, which is down 16% from its recent ATH. Silver is at $74, which is down 38% from its recent ATH. Until gold can get back above $5000, it will be stuck in a trading range. What comes next, a retest of $4100 or $5000? That depends on what Iran decides to do. Iran clearly holds the better cards. This is why Iran keeps putting out a long list of demands, and all Trump wants is for the Strait to reopen.
No one knows how this plays out. My guess is that it is going to be messy. I have not bought my stocks for the 5-4-3-2-1 contest yet and plan to wait at least two weeks to see what happens in Iran. I expect gold, silver, and the S&P to go back down, and for the 10-year interest rate and the DXY to go back up.
In May or June, I expect gold and silver to resume their trend higher, regardless of the outcome in Iran. The macro fundamentals for gold have only improved from this war. Gold prices want to go a lot higher. Investors are going to want to own more gold because of the existing geopolitical uncertainty. It won’t be long now before $5,000 is the new floor, and gold is the new buy-the-dip asset, where dips only last weeks instead of months. Anyone who hasn’t figured this out yet, will soon. Gold is no longer a want-to-own asset. It is now a must-own asset.
Petra Kaak retweeted
Enter the 5-4-3-2-1 contest. Turn $7.5K into $3.7M.
Note: You do not need to join my Substack to read this article. It is open to the public.
dondurrett.substack.com/p/th…
