10.28.26 xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1qxvvermb…

AI Matters w/ Patrick Bell xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1rxmqpBdM…

[QM WIRE] EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS PRICES APPROACH €100 PER MEGAWATT HOUR, HIGHEST SINCE DECEMBER 2022 AS MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY RISKS INTENSIFY AND EUROPEAN STORAGE SITS NEAR 75% $UNG [QM WIRE] U.S. STEEL PRICES CLIMB TOWARD $1,400 PER TON, HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2022 AS 50% IMPORT TARIFFS RESTRICT FOREIGN SUPPLIES AND DOMESTIC MILLS GAIN PRICING POWER $NUE [QM WIRE] U.S. CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES FALL 1.892 MILLION BARRELS FOR FOURTH CONSECUTIVE WEEK AS DISTILLATE STOCKS DROP 1.462 MILLION BARRELS WHILE GASOLINE INVENTORIES RISE 3.87 MILLION $USO [QM WIRE] BANK OF CANADA RAISES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE 25 BASIS POINTS TO 2.5%, FIRST INCREASE SINCE 2023 AS POLICYMAKERS WARN ADDITIONAL TIGHTENING MAY BE NEEDED TO CONTROL INFLATION $FXC [QM WIRE] CANADIAN 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD HOLDS NEAR 3.84% FOLLOWING BANK OF CANADA RATE HIKE AS CENTRAL BANK RAISES 2027 INFLATION FORECAST TO 3.1% FROM 2.0% [QM WIRE] CANADIAN DOLLAR HOLDS NEAR 1.40 PER U.S. DOLLAR FOLLOWING EXPECTED BANK OF CANADA RATE INCREASE AS INVESTORS ASSESS FUTURE MONETARY POLICY AND TRADE NEGOTIATIONS [QM WIRE] CANADIAN TSX HOLDS NEAR 36,000 FOLLOWING CENTRAL BANK RATE HIKE AS TECK RESOURCES GAINS 3.5% AND TRICAN WELL SERVICE SURGES 6% ON STRONGER PROFITS [QM WIRE] IRON ORE FUTURES REBOUND ABOVE 670 YUAN PER TON AFTER TOUCHING FOUR YEAR LOW OF 664 AS CHINESE STEEL PRODUCTION RECOVERY OFFSETS PERSISTENT SUPPLY CONCERNS [QM WIRE] BALTIC DRY INDEX REBOUNDS 1.9% TO 2,652, ENDING THREE SESSION LOSING STREAK AS CAPESIZE SHIPPING RATES JUMP NEARLY 5% TO TWO WEEK HIGH OF 3,886 $BDRY [QM WIRE] BRAZILIAN STOCKS EXTEND LOSSES FOR THIRD STRAIGHT SESSION AS IBOVESPA FALLS NEARLY 2% BELOW 173,000 AMID FISCAL UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWING PRESIDENT LULA REELECTION $EWZ [QM WIRE] U.S. EQUITIES ADVANCE AHEAD OF FEDERAL RESERVE DECISION AS S&P 500 GAINS 0.3%, NASDAQ RISES 0.4% AND DOW HOLDS NEAR FLAT $SPY $QQQ [QM WIRE] U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR SHARES RALLY FOLLOWING RECORD PROFITS FROM SOUTH KOREAN CHIPMAKER SK HYNIX AS MICRON JUMPS 4.9%, BROADCOM GAINS 2% AND AMD RISES 1.8% $MU [QM WIRE] BRITISH 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD FALLS TOWARD 5.3%, LOWEST IN MORE THAN A MONTH AS U.K. BUDGET REAFFIRMS FISCAL DISCIPLINE AND OUTLINES DEBT ISSUANCE PLANS $FXB [QM WIRE] U.K. GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES £20.4 BILLION IN ADDITIONAL FUNDING FOR NATIONAL WEALTH FUND AND BRITISH BUSINESS BANK TO SUPPORT INVESTMENT AND 140,000 JOBS [QM WIRE] U.K. BUDGET INCLUDES 3.9% MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE, ENERGY BILL RELIEF AND TARIFF SUSPENSIONS ON MORE THAN 100 SUPERMARKET PRODUCTS AS GOVERNMENT TARGETS COST OF LIVING PRESSURES [QM WIRE] U.K. BUDGET SPARKS BANKING SHARE RALLY AS STANDARD CHARTERED GAINS MORE THAN 4% AND BARCLAYS AND LLOYDS RISE NEARLY 3.8% FOLLOWING SMALLER THAN FEARED BANK TAX INCREASE [QM WIRE] U.K. BUDGET OFFICE CUTS 2027 ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST TO 1% FROM 1.6% WHILE RAISING 2026 PROJECTION TO 1.2% FROM 1.1% AMID HIGHER ENERGY COSTS [QM WIRE] U.K. PUBLIC BORROWING PROJECTED AT 4.2% OF GDP THIS YEAR, 3.4% NEXT YEAR AND 2.9% IN 2028 AS GOVERNMENT DEBT FORECAST REACHES 83.2% OF GDP [QM WIRE] BRITISH POUND REMAINS BELOW $1.33 NEAR TWO WEEK LOW AS INVESTORS DIGEST U.K. BUDGET, HIGHER BORROWING FORECASTS AND FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY OUTLOOK [QM WIRE] BRITAIN'S FTSE 100 ADVANCES MODESTLY AS BANKING STOCKS RALLY FOLLOWING BUDGET ANNOUNCEMENT WHILE GSK FALLS MORE THAN 5% ON DISAPPOINTING RESULTS FOR MORE INFORMATION: QuasarMarkets.com

Washington is empty today except for one room. Congress is in recess until Nov. 9. No hearings, no floor risk. FOMC at 2 PM ET. The hold is priced at roughly 90%. December is the trade at 73%. Warsh at 2:30 is the whole event. @federalreserve

[QM WIRE] CRUDE OIL REBOUNDS ABOVE $101 A BARREL AS REPORTS OF POSSIBLE U.S. MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN AFTER MIDTERM ELECTIONS REVIVE MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY CONCERNS $USO $XLE [QM WIRE] FRANCE REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT JUMPS BY 110,800 TO 3,192,500 IN SEPTEMBER, HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2021 AS JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE ACROSS ALL AGE GROUPS [QM WIRE] NORTH MACEDONIA PRODUCER INFLATION EASES TO 6.9% IN SEPTEMBER FROM 7.1% AS ENERGY AND MANUFACTURING PRICE PRESSURES MODERATE [QM WIRE] U.S. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS REBOUND 3.4% AFTER SEVEN CONSECUTIVE WEEKLY DECLINES AS PURCHASE APPLICATIONS RISE 3.8% AND REFINANCING DEMAND GAINS 2.7% $XHB [QM WIRE] U.S. 30 YEAR MORTGAGE RATE DECLINES TO 7.37%, SECOND STRAIGHT WEEKLY DROP AS LOWER BORROWING COSTS PROVIDE MODEST RELIEF TO HOUSING MARKET [QM WIRE] INDIA'S SENSEX FALLS 0.5% TO 73,246 AS HIGHER OIL PRICES AND TECHNOLOGY LOSSES WEIGH ON EQUITIES WHILE JIO PLATFORMS SURGES 21.4% IN MARKET DEBUT $INDA [QM WIRE] ISRAELI SHEKEL FALLS MORE THAN 1% TO 3.1 PER DOLLAR AS PARTIAL ELECTION RESULTS POINT TO NO CLEAR PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY, ISRAELI STOCKS SLIDE NEARLY 3% $EIS [QM WIRE] INDIA SEPTEMBER INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH SLOWS TO 6.7% FROM REVISED 7.8%, MISSING 7.2% FORECAST AS MANUFACTURING AND MINING ACTIVITY WEAKEN [QM WIRE] ITALY SEPTEMBER PRODUCER INFLATION ACCELERATES TO 13.8%, HIGHEST SINCE DECEMBER 2022 AS ELECTRICITY AND GAS PRICES SURGE 35.9% ANNUALLY $EWI [QM WIRE] U.K. 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD CLIMBS TO 5.36% AS RISING OIL PRICES AND FISCAL UNCERTAINTY KEEP INVESTORS CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF BUDGET ANNOUNCEMENT $FXB [QM WIRE] BRITISH POUND FALLS BELOW $1.33 TO TWO WEEK LOW AS INVESTORS AWAIT U.K. BUDGET AND FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION [QM WIRE] ITALIAN INDUSTRIAL SALES DECLINE 0.9% IN AUGUST AFTER 1.7% JULY GAIN AS CONSUMER GOODS AND INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS WEAKEN WHILE ENERGY REVENUE RISES 12% [QM WIRE] GLOBAL GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS RISE AS SOUTH KOREAN 10 YEAR YIELD GAINS 7.20 BASIS POINTS, JAPAN ADDS 4.19 AND U.S. YIELD CLIMBS 1.60 BASIS POINTS [QM WIRE] BULGARIA SEPTEMBER TOURIST ARRIVALS FALL 4.1% ANNUALLY TO 1.252 MILLION, MARKING FOURTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF DECLINING VISITOR NUMBERS [QM WIRE] SWISS INVESTOR SENTIMENT PLUNGES TO MINUS 15.3 IN OCTOBER FROM PLUS 2.6 IN SEPTEMBER AS ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS DETERIORATE SHARPLY [QM WIRE] NAMIBIA CENTRAL BANK RAISES BENCHMARK RATE 25 BASIS POINTS TO 7%, HIGHEST SINCE JANUARY 2025 AS SEPTEMBER INFLATION REACHES 5.4% [QM WIRE] FRENCH 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD RISES TO 4.95% AS INVESTORS WEIGH FISCAL PRESSURES AND UPCOMING ECB POLICY DECISION $EWQ [QM WIRE] AUSTRIA MANUFACTURING PMI CLIMBS TO 55.9 IN OCTOBER FROM 54.9, HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2022 AS NEW ORDERS AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT ACCELERATE $EWO [QM WIRE] HONG KONG SEPTEMBER EXPORTS SURGE 64.9% ANNUALLY TO RECORD HK$762.6 BILLION AS TRADE DEFICIT NARROWS TO HK$46.3 BILLION FROM HK$50.2 BILLION $EWH [QM WIRE] NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR PLUNGES 1.36% AS SOUTH KOREAN WON FALLS 0.86% AND INDIAN RUPEE SLIPS 0.26% WHILE JAPANESE YEN GAINS 0.16% FOR MORE INFORMATION: QuasarMarkets.com

The day's defining tension. Can the AI trade survive a hawkish Fed and $100 oil, all on one Fed · $TLT (lead) — 2pm ET decision, a hold is the base case after last month's hike, but $100 oil skews the risk toward a hawkish message; traders already price three more quarter-point hikes by late 2027. AI and Tech · $MSFT — Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta all report after the close; capex (Alphabet's ~$180–190B guide) is on trial, not revenue. Geopolitics · $USO — a Houthi strike on Saudi refining pushed WTI back above $100 and Brent toward $111; it's really a Fed story in disguise. Earnings · $MU — SK Hynix's sevenfold profit jump lifted Micron 4% premarket; memory is the cleanest tell for AI demand, but breadth is narrow.

Warsh announces at 2:00pm ET with the presser at 2:30, and a hold at 3.75–4.00% is roughly 94% priced. Nobody is trading the decision; they are trading the statement language, because September was the first hike in three years and December is where the argument actually sits. The committee would rather not move again before the Nov 3 midterms. Microsoft $MSFT and Alphabet $GOOG both report after the close, on $4.71 and $2.94 consensus EPS. Microsoft is guided to 44–45% Azure growth on $90.58B revenue. Capex commentary will matter more than either print, since Tuesday's tape was an AI-funding relief rally. Brent at $110.99 and WTI at $101.33 are the inflation problem, both up about 1.4% on reporting that Washington asked Gulf states to prepare for an Iran campaign after the midterms. Gasoline is what carried September CPI to 3.7%. Korea went vertical overnight, Kospi +6.8% on SK Hynix, while Europe shrugged and US futures are close to flat. Also on the slate: 8:30 advance goods trade, 9:45 Bank of Canada with a 25bp hike 84% priced, 10:30 EIA crude. No Fed speakers, blackout holds into Friday.

S&P 500 7,733.55, +0.74%. Nasdaq +1.38%. Anthropic's IPO filing put the AI trade back on the bid. Semis up a third straight day, still down 12% on the month. Boeing -9.5%. Oil cracked on Tehran talks. $BA FOMC decision tomorrow, 2:00 PM ET. #markets

[QM WIRE] TRUMP SAYS OIL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ, FLOATS POSSIBILITY OF VENEZUELA BECOMING A U.S. STATE $USO $BNO $XLE FOR MORE INFORMATION: QuasarMarkets.com

JIm Batgos of @TradePulse_USA xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1DGleVAjb…

How Daylight Saving Time Slipped Through the Senate @nathandeanDC , Senior Analyst at @business Intelligence, on President Trump's push for later sunsets and the time a bill to keep the sun out later passed the Senate by unanimous consent, because, he says, Senator Tom Cotton's staff forgot to look at it. The House was warned off the bill and it never passed. His verdict: it won't see the light of day. From QM Live. Free to sign up: quasarmarkets.com #daylightsavingtime #politics #senate