Gil (@RFishBlueFish) header
Gil (@RFishBlueFish) profile picture

Gil

@RFishBlueFish

Politics, EA, Constitutional Design Alt: @BFishRedFish. Also follow me over there: https://xitter.gq/t.co/a6MzEQVsoE

 NYC
designingdemocracy.net
Joined March 2019
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My constitutional design series is complete! If you've ever wondered anything like "which is the best voting system, taking into account practical concerns?", read it! 20 posts, most 10-15 min read Here is a thread with all the posts here, starting from highlights
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I still can’t believe the South Carolina senate race. Random Resist Lib Lady democrats nominated because nobody bothered to run - a woman who talks like that Scarlet Johansson SNL SOTU response sketch - is now a US Senator. She won by ~5, outperforming most senate Dem candidates.
Nicky🇺🇸 (@NickyScatz) profile pictureNicky🇺🇸
@NickyScatz7h
What race was your biggest shock?
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Oh and did I mention that she campaigned like it was 2018? Way more talk about healthcare than every other candidate. (Still a good issue for Dems tbc! but not very topical)
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Ok she maybe she didn't outperform Senate dems but it was close. I love you resist libs with all of my heart. Thank you for everything you've given to this country❤️❤️❤️ xitter.gq/RFishBlueFish/status/2…
Gil (@RFishBlueFish) profile pictureGil@RFishBlueFish21h
Replying to @Mill226
It's crazy how close all of these states are. If it was a D+9 year like generic ballot was saying it's basically a coinflip.
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The Iran war wasn’t the worst thing Trump did. It doesn’t even make my top 10. But if you do enough crazy shit with total disregard for public opinion, one of them is going to turn out really really unpopular.
David Shor (@davidshor) profile pictureDavid Shor
@davidshor3h
Replying to @davidshor
The simplest explanation for a lot of this is the Iran war - this was Trump's Afghanistan, but even worse. The day before the war started, his approval on gas prices was 49% - within a few weeks it was in the low 30s!
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(That and it happened to be the one that would dominate headlines for literally the entire year)
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the South turned up for Dems but literally only in the Senate ?????????
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This is way too broad to be a candidate quality thing, right? Anyone have any explanations? @SemioticRivalry ?
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@PoliticalKiwi ?
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Uggh this is so boring what the hell
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Gil (@RFishBlueFish) profile pictureGil@RFishBlueFishNov 3
For states that share a border,the campaigns in KS and NE are polar opposites. Hamilton talks working across the aisle and restoring decency in washington and Osborn spends his time yelling about data centers and calling Ricketts a pedo. Comparison map is going to be interesting.
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@Mill226 sorry Claude and I took your shtick as map guy
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I think(?) David's has no undecideds, and if so it's quite well aligned with the Silver Bulletin Trump approval, I'm quite surprised. (If not public polls are overestimating his approval by 2%)
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David Shor (@davidshor) profile pictureDavid Shor
@davidshor3h
Replying to @davidshor
The simplest explanation for a lot of this is the Iran war - this was Trump's Afghanistan, but even worse. The day before the war started, his approval on gas prices was 49% - within a few weeks it was in the low 30s!
Image from David Shor (@davidshor)
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Hats off to the message discipline shown this cycle. Every single D candidate, up and down the ballot, talked nonstop about cost of living and the Iran war. People weren’t nearly as good about this in 2018 or 22.
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Slight exceptions (still talked about it but not quite as much): Annie Andrews, Dan Osborn
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Can they go to 99c already so I can stop looking at them? I have work to do
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Image from Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
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@SemioticRivalry when are these getting to 99c
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People usually think the senate is biased toward Rs because of all the small states in the Great Plains. The bigger issue is actually the South, which is split up into a ton of small-ish states. When Dems start to do well enough to win in some of those…
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I'm pretty much net even lifetime on Kalshi if you exclude politicians with name "Graham"
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I thought this was because the others were more red...
David Shor (@davidshor) profile pictureDavid Shor
@davidshorOct 25
Lots of people are asking me where to give their money - if you can only do one race, I’d give what you can to @MaryPeltola Several reasons: 1) It’s a small state, so your money goes further per expected senate vote 2) Direct donations buy 19x ads per dollar than committees due to the unit rule - this also frees up the DSCC and SMP to put their money on states with smaller IE/coord ad price spreads and frees them up to spend more on digital 3) it’s likely going to be close! It’s not too late! Any money you send today will get spent immediately and will provide real relief to an overworked campaign workers across a bunch of orgs! secure.actblue.com/donate/mp…
Contribute to Mary Peltola

Contribute to Mary Peltola

Your contribution will help Mary Peltola win one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.

secure.actblue.com
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I don't think we're winning this race even if Bankhead drops out
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Education depolarization I have missed you so much...
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