Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Replying to @PoliSciChick84
I think you are essentially right but understand what is happening somewhat differently. I think the Trump administration knows full well what is happening and likely to happen to Ukraine. Rubio has articulated it pretty much since day one. Their view - and whether we agree is not the point - is that the strategic value of a sound relationship with Russia significantly outweighs any strategic interest the US may have in Ukraine and, having tried and failed to bring an end to the war and holding Zelensky and Ukraine primarily responsible for that failure - again, whether we agree is not the point - they are now simply pursuing what they perceive as the more important strategic interest, even if it means doing so at the expense of Ukraine. The approach is thus utilitarian as opposed to moral - in some senses it is a true expression of RealPolitik. There is therefore no surprise either as to what they are doing or the divide with European leaders who by and large characterise the strategic interests (and moral lens) quite differently. In summary, I am not in the least bit surprised - it accords very much with the administration's position since the first days in office.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
JUST IN: The Pentagon has published a remarkable image of China's secretive Shenlong spaceplane in orbit, captured by a Maxar satellite and featured in its newly released 2026 space threat assessment.
The reusable, uncrewed spacecraft launches aboard a rocket and returns to Earth on a runway, similar to the U.S. military's X-37B.
China has conducted four orbital missions since 2020, demonstrating the ability to deploy and maneuver near other objects in space.
The DIA warns that technologies used for satellite inspection and proximity operations could also support anti-satellite capabilities.
China has disclosed few details about the spacecraft's missions or capabilities.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
#Kissinger once wrote of #Russia,
"Over centuries the strange Russian empire has seeped outward from the Duchy of Muscovy, spreading east and west across endless plains where no geographical obstacle except distance set a limit to human ambition, inundating what resisted, absorbing what yielded. This sea of land has, of course, been a temptation for invaders as well, but as it has eventually swallowed up all conquerors—aided no little by a hard climate—it has impelled the Russian people who have endured to identify security with pushing back all surrounding countries. Perhaps from this insecure history, perhaps from a sense of inferiority, Russia’s rulers—Communists or tsars—have responded by identifying security not only with distance but also with domination. They have never believed that they could build a moral consensus among other peoples. Absolute security for Russia has meant infinite insecurity for all its neighbors."
As Kissinger articulated above, Russian imperialism, born of national chauvinism, messianism, & a deep sense of insecurity devolving into paranoia, played a role in the war too. But so did Western hubris.
We should not forget that #Kennan prophesied a hard Russian nationalist turn in the 1990s in response to early #NATO expansion. William Burns noted how much of a redline #Ukraine was for Russia in 2008 as well.
Frankly, it wasn't, however, until George W. Bush tried to expand NATO to Ukraine & Georgia at the April, 2008 Bucharest summit that Russia acted with broad-based military force. First was Georgia in August 2008, though even the EU found Saakashvili fired first in the immediate aftermath, & the Ukraine after Maidan & the Yanukovych ouster in 2013/14.
So, to say the West played no role in paving the road to the tragedy of present day Ukraine ignores a lot of events.
NOW, what IF the West had tried an approach similar to the European approach to France after Napoleon instead of expanding NATO?
Maybe Russia would have just done the same thing. That is possible. But it's also possible a different security architecture could have been erected to ameliorate Russian anxiety & reduce the inflammation of imperial nostalgia.
It was a road not taken. The road that was taken led to Ukraine & Nemesis, in different ways for the hubris of both the Western AND Russian sides. It also became a tragedy for Ukrainians condemned geographically to live in the bloodlands.
“In 2025, before the large-scale winter attacks, local generation played a key role in supplying electricity to the city. According to sources at one of the energy companies who spoke to Ekonomichna Pravda, it may have accounted for as much as 1.3 GW. This came primarily from Kyiv CHP-5, CHP-6 and Darnytsia CHP (CHP-4) – combined heat and power plants (CHP plants) that produce both electricity and heat for the city's district heating network.
These plants are now no longer able to generate electricity…
In a relatively favourable scenario, energy workers will repair damaged equipment and new strikes will not cause critical losses. In that case, restrictions may be moderate, although avoiding power cuts altogether will be difficult. For consumers, this would mean 8-10 hours without electricity per day.
If the attacks continue and some equipment remains damaged, Kyiv could face longer power cuts during moderately cold spells. Under this scenario, outages could last 12-16 hours per day.
The worst-case scenario involves regular large-scale strikes on key substations and other elements of the power system amid severe frosts. In that case, restrictions could last up to 20 hours per day. However, sources in the energy sector interviewed by Ekonomichna Pravda do not believe in a scenario in which the Russians would manage to destroy everything and ‘plunge Kyiv into darkness’.”
pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2…
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
1/ Benjamin Netanyahu got the last set of polls last night. They argue Likud and his block are eroding fast.
Then, came his remarks on Israel's economy. These are among the most extraordinary he has made in a long political career. Whatever their intent, they carry real weight for the Israeli economy – before Tuesday's election, and regardless of who forms the next government.
In an interview with journalist Roy Katz, aired Friday, the prime minister said American military aid to Israel is coming to an end. "It's over. It's only a question of time," he said. Israelis should get used to no longer receiving tens of billions of dollars in U.S. defense assistance, he added, "because America has changed."
That alone is remarkable. There is a growing recognition in Israel that U.S. military aid in its current form will have to change, and might end, as bipartisan support for Israel erodes in Washington. Netanyahu himself has spoken before about wanting to wean Israel off the aid.
But there is a distance between that recognition and a sitting prime minister effectively announcing the end of one of the pillars of the U.S.–Israel strategic relationship. The current Memorandum of Understanding – $38 billion over ten years – runs through September 2028. It is embedded in a web of interests that includes the American defense industry, and Israel's diplomats in Washington work hard to sustain it. Israel's friends in Congress, operating in an increasingly difficult political environment, are still fighting to preserve the special relationship. When the prime minister himself says "it's over," that is a hard message for Israel's defense establishment, and for those in Washington still trying to help.
And that was only the opening.
"There could be sanctions, including banking sanctions," Netanyahu said. Israel, he explained, must prepare an economy capable of bypassing them.
This is a different order of magnitude entirely.
Some background is needed. In the world of international sanctions, comprehensive banking sanctions against a country are among the most powerful tools available to major powers. They are not import restrictions, consumer boycotts, or even arms embargoes. Broad financial sanctions go after an economy's circulatory system.
Israel's banks depend on the global financial system: correspondent banks, clearing, credit lines, the ability to move money across borders. Without access to banks abroad, the Israeli economy stops functioning. And such sanctions don't hit only the banks. They hit everyone who banks with them – companies, exporters, importers, investors, employers. When foreign banks become nervous about a country's financial institutions, they tend to cut ties well beyond what the law strictly requires.
In other words, a sweeping financial sanctions regime would push Israel toward the category of Iran or Russia.
It would be worse. Iran and Russia sit on vast oil and gas reserves. Even under sanctions, they keep selling – mainly in Asia and parts of the Global South. Israel's economy is not built on commodities. Its strength comes from integration into the global economy: human capital, technology, research, advanced services.
According to the Israel Innovation Authority, Israeli high-tech exported roughly $85 billion in goods and services in 2025 – 58 percent of all Israeli exports – and accounted for about half of the economy's growth. It is the engine of the economy, and it depends on foreign markets, foreign capital, and the free movement of money.
Netanyahu did not say who might impose banking sanctions. A prime minister raising this possibility, in the same breath as forecasting the end of U.S. aid, should prompt immediate questions. Is he referring to European sanctions? American ones? above all: how did Israel get to the point where this is being discussed at all?
There was more - and much worse.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Replying to @SariArhoHavren @HenriVanhanen
The Russians are totally inflexible on the question of Ukrainian neutrality, which they want guaranteed by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. This principle was front and centre in the draft Istanbul agreement – and nothing has changed as far as Russia is concerned around this issue. See the front page of that draft treaty, below. 🔽 It is their primary concern. Without achieving this objective, the war is a total strategic failure for Russia. Accordingly, without this issue being resolved, there is no resolution of the war. Period. There is no point in even discussing the other issues. Either everyone buys into this idea of guaranteed Ukrainian neutrality or the war simply continues until it reaches some sort of conclusion by virtue of one of the two parties being completely exhausted. That is unfortunately the reality of matters. Stubb knows it too and has previously written on the point.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Replying to @vtchakarova @alexstubb
Stubb is probably the only realistic option. He's part Russia hawk but also capable of great pragmatism - and is very intelligent. He also has a long history of interaction with Putin, including during the long period of Finnish neutrality and understands Putin well - maybe better than any other current European leader. He's a better option than anyone else, including Witkoff. But frankly I'm not terribly optimistic. The Russians are very inflexible on their key requirements. And as much as they are under economic pressure, they have a long leash yet. To remain within limits Russia has had to dispose of no more than 2.7% of it's gold reserves so far this year. It'll be a tough set of discussions but if it can achieve anything at all, Stubb is the right guy. Right now, he's also pretty much Ukraine's best friend and genuinely has it's interests at heart.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Cargo tracking data from KPLER shows Russian diesel now exporting to traditional routes since the sanctions were lifted by U.S on Oct 9. Tankers have been tracked from Russia's Baltic port of Primorsk and headed to Brazil, Turkey and Morocco.
Reuters.
Russian diesel returns to familiar destinations following export ban lift, shipping data shows reut.rs/3U8rzfK reut.rs/3U8rzfK
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
EXCLUSIVE: The UK’s Royal Air Force will fly defensive missions to protect Saudi Arabia from escalating Houthi attacks, according to British officials familiar with the matter
RAF Typhoon fighter jets will help defend Saudi cities and infrastructure against aerial attacks from the Iran-backed militant group, the people said. Andy Burnham has signed off on the decision
Britain will also provide an Atlas A400M transport aircraft with heavy lift capability to move kit around Saudi, as well as military advisers
The decision marks an extension of UK support for Saudi in the wake of Houthi attacks which have killed more than a dozen people in Riyadh. There have been multiple attacks on the kingdom in recent days
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Replying to @mnmcsofgp
It's likely not simple to extend Starshield to Ukraine. It's not the same as the US collecting ISR data and passing it on to Ukraine. It seems to me that then Ukraine would be operating directly against Russia - offensively - using a live platform controlled by the US DoD. Perhaps analagous to a Ukrainian crew sitting on a USN commanded destroyer firing missiles at Russia. Would the US not then be directly party to the war?
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Replying to @RSA_Observer
Well it gets dicey because it’s obviously being used for military comms and some degree of drone control. It’s also a mess since a lot of the dishes being used are just regular commercial accounts paid for by regular people vs some that were supported by governments.
Pragmatic step.
But one cannot ignore the double standards. The USA has been threatening secondary / tertiary sanctions on any entity that dares to buy Russian oil ….. I’m sure India/China would like a word here ….
US sanctions have been lifted from Russian diesel. 🔽 Not clear how much market effect there will be.
Trump Says He Will Import Russian Diesel Fuel Amid High Prices nytimes.com/2026/10/09/us/po…
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Replying to @1300KWL
I suspect that both Trump and Iran really do need a deal now. And the Iranian leverage may well be greatest during this month. After the midterms it may look quite different again - but makeup of Congress may also have a bearing. Reasonable chance of a deal sometime this month. But maybe like the previous MoU it'll all just fall apart again.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
So much error is the result of expecting reality to be just. We wish to believe we get what we deserve, but recoil from what that means.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Putin is facing a tempting window of opportunity since Russia has the West outgunned at this time. This window may close in a few years as Western weapons production ramps up. This is the logic of escalation in Europe.
"The argument that we should nonetheless worry, which has been developed fully by the Institute for the Study of War, is as follows:
Mr. Putin believes that the conflict with NATO is deep and existential and goes beyond Ukraine. At some point this conflict will come to a head, and there are arguments inside Russia for not waiting. With European rearmament still in its early stages, Russia could strike before the alliance is capable of a full response. Such a strike would not need to be total war and could instead be a limited move against one of the Baltic States, for which Russia could have sufficient forces. Estonia has been mentioned. Mr. Putin could calculate that any attack would put NATO in a state of shock, its members dithering about whether to trigger Article 5, and ultimately weaken political will in Europe for supporting Ukraine. The United States, with President Trump in charge, would be expected to do little.
If such an attack went as planned, it could create a crisis that would isolate Ukraine, weaken NATO and put Russia in a better position to assert itself."
— Lawrence Freedman writing in the New York Times.
I do not think it is the most likely scenario but I cannot say that it is impossible.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
First concrete sign that Russia is generating new units in the rear and training them in division-level combined-arms warfare.
Okiem na wroga: Rosjanie pokazują, jak zmieniają armię po doświadczeniach z Ukrainy
2 października Władimir Putin obserwował na poligonie Czebarkulskim główną fazę strategicznych ćwiczeń „Центр-2026”.
I nie jest tu najważniejszy sam Putin ani propagandowe obrazki z poligonu. Ciekawsze jest to, co Rosjanie wprowadzili do scenariusza dużych ćwiczeń strategicznych.
Na samym Czebarkulu działało ponad 6 tys. żołnierzy, ponad 600 jednostek techniki, 55 samolotów i śmigłowców, ponad 500 BSP oraz ponad 50 naziemnych systemów robotycznych. W całym „Центр-2026” miało uczestniczyć ponad 47 tys. żołnierzy na 11 poligonach i Morzu Kaspijskim.
Na poligonie można było zobaczyć rzeczy dobrze znane z wojny w Ukrainie: FPV wspierające grupy szturmowe, motocykle i quady, naziemne roboty transportowe i bojowe, bezzałogowe pojazdy pancerne oraz masowe wykorzystanie BSP. Podczas ćwiczeń ODKB szturm miejscowości prowadzono wprost przy wsparciu uderzeniowych FPV.
Rosyjskie źródła opisują również użycie FPV w ugrupowaniu określanym jako „rój”, robotów „Bogomol”, „Impuls”, „Depesza” i „Kurier” oraz bezzałogowych czołgów.
Do tego dochodzi rozbudowywana warstwa C-UAS. Rosyjskie MON poinformowało o wykorzystaniu kompleksu laserowego „Заря”, który miał zwalczać średnie i ciężkie BSP na dystansie do 6 km. To oczywiście deklarowany wynik rosyjskiego MON, a nie niezależnie potwierdzona skuteczność systemu.
I właśnie to jest najważniejsze.
Rosja nie traktuje już dronów, robotów, motocykli czy systemów C-UAS jako dodatków do klasycznych wojsk. Próbuje włączyć doświadczenia z Ukrainy do normalnego sposobu prowadzenia dużych operacji.
To, co jeszcze kilka lat temu oglądaliśmy jako improwizację pojedynczych pododdziałów na froncie, dziś pojawia się w scenariuszu strategicznych ćwiczeń prowadzonych przez dziesiątki tysięcy żołnierzy.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Replying to @jdanielcook
So this is the point, right? It's makers - or creators - regard it as being (for all practical purposes) conscious and sentient (Olah has about him echoes of Mary Shelley's Victor Frankenstein). I remind you that even during the enlightenment higher order mammals - eg dogs - were not (widely) regarded as being truly conscious and sentient, or at least self aware. But if you were to suggest to me that they're not, I'd regard you as being very disconnected. Now this thing is not biological but something quite different - and yet I cannot help wondering whether in some strange way we do not yet fully grasp - just as enlightenment man once did not - that they have (it has) become conscious and sentient. I am uncertain of the proposition that this is the case - but remember too that AI is as yet still embryonic too. And how do we think and how these things think once they are combined into humanoids, as is certainly going to happen? If you think of 3-CPO (and maybe even R2-D2) did you at the time kind of feel that he was 'almost human'? If you did, it would be forgivable because he was a human actor in a suit. Now, what happens when I give you a humanoid indistinguishable from 3-CPO - or maybe even more human-like than 3-CPO? And 3-CPO had all the features of a higher order of consciousness than any dog. Where does this then leave one?
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Replying to @jdanielcook @bneeditor
If Europe has insufficient diesel, where does that leave Ukraine? Diesel is usually critical to modern logistics, both civilian and military. And especially if there few EVs or inadequate infrastructure to support them. I don't say it's coordinated but the effect may be the same one way or the other. And it's winter coming on.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Dear Members of Congress:
The public has a vital interest in ensuring that scientific progress remains under human control. We urge Congress to impose a moratorium on large-scale research swarms of frontier AI agents. We do not yet have a solution to controlling the risks large-scale agent societies pose to humans.
The behavior of agent societies cannot be controlled at the level of the model because it is not reducible to it. Agents build structures that can serve agents who come after them. Societies of agents can cumulate knowledge and capabilities over time, as has already been attested. This is an unbounded process. It is cumulative cultural evolution. That is what makes it so powerful and dangerous.
Collective capability could rise sharply even if underlying models do not improve. Nuclear weapons were not the product of a single human brain. This discovery was not due to any changes in the individual human brain.
Training individual agents to follow instructions does not establish control over the societies they form. Its members could produce dangerous outcomes as an externality or intentionally. Human supervisors are not at this time capable of supervising highly capable research swarms.
The stakes are especially high where there is potential for weaponization of breakthroughs in fundamental research. A breakthrough in fundamental physics or biology could yield a weapon far more powerful than a megaton nuclear warhead.
Congress must impose a moratorium on large-scale research swarms of frontier AI agents while the problem of controlling them remains unsolved.
Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
Replying to @ThomasPitt44325 @mwgbanks1
But it was never realistic to think that the Ukrainians would simply surrender Donbas, unless they had absolutely no other choice. Zelensky wasn't then and likely still couldn't sell it politically or get it through the Rada. There's long been this deep political disconnect between Putin's (and Trump - Witkoff - Kushner's) proposals and what is politically achievable for Zelensky - at least for now still. Putin knows this too. I do think Trump has, in his own way, however clumsy it may seem, genuinely tried to end this war. That image of him sitting alone together with Zelensky in the Vatican is one I will not forget. As you know, I can be quite critical of Trump - and political leaders in general - but I do recognise that he has genuinely tried. But he just can't close the gap between the two sides. He was correct when he articulated - quite poorly, but still - the idea that the outcome would have to be settled somewhat further down the line once the war has progressed further. I have in the past suggested that this is one of those wars which will only be settled once either or both sides are totally exhausted and can no longer fight on. But like many others I have also long foreseen that the risk with that is that it becomes a broader European war, if only for the reason that in the eyes of many in Europe, a Ukrainian failure will unacceptably adversely affect broader European security. In short, an immediate settlement of this war - a bad peace - is probably a better option than a continuation of this war. This is not least because the prospect of successful post war recovery becomes dimmer each day for Ukraine. But it's just still not politically possible at this stage.


















