Ceteris Paribus Fortes Fortuna Adiuvat Not Financial Advice / Do Your Own Research
Mexico City
Joined August 2009
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Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
JUST IN: Momentum is building behind the bipartisan permitting reform bill ahead of Monday’s Senate vote, with Democrats reportedly making progress in negotiations, clean-energy groups endorsing the revised legislation, and conservative Rep. Chip Roy urging Congress to pass permitting reform before January 3. The developments could provide a positive catalyst for data center, power infrastructure and renewable energy stocks that have faced selling pressure following the Democratic sweep in the midterms.
The revised bill would accelerate federal permitting and transmission construction, require new qualifying data centers to cover their incremental electricity and grid costs rather than passing them on to consumers, establish financial guarantees for operators, and expand oversight of data center electricity and water consumption. It also includes four nuclear provisions addressing licensing, uranium enrichment, NRC staffing and DOE transparency.
The most significant development may be the emergence of broader political support for energy infrastructure development, including solar and wind projects that previously faced Republican opposition. Faster permitting and transmission expansion could benefit renewable developers, grid equipment suppliers, utilities and data center operators, although new cost-sharing requirements could pressure data center economics. Nuclear developers could also benefit from regulatory reforms. The bill potentially offers a policy catalyst for several recently pressured sectors, but Monday’s 60-vote threshold remains the immediate hurdle.
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
AI Semis Plummeted.
The AI Boom Did Not.
19 Stocks to Consider.
It is time to prepare accordingly. $SOXX
Read here: thierryvonarvy.substack.com/…
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
*BIPARTISAN SENATE BILL COULD FAST-TRACK AI DATA CENTER EXPANSION AND POWER INFRASTRUCTURE, POTENTIALLY EASING MAJOR DEVELOPMENT BOTTLENECKS; VOTE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK — THE VERGE
🇺🇸🇺🇸
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
Charlie Munger: "I've had my Berkshire stock decline by 50% three times. It's a part of the game."
Average stock swings by 100% from peak to trough every year; we get a 10% correction every 1-2 years and a bear market every 4 years.
If you can't take it, don't own stocks.
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
The rich get richer because when the market panics, the middle class sells their investments while the wealthy buy more.
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
This is so new that no one knows exactly how to price it. I think the same happens with neoclouds. Time will tell.
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
This is what a bubble looks like.
The Dotcom index in the last post actually started in October 1995. Here is the corrected version starting from January 1995.
Using 10 of the top stocks from the dotcom bubble and today's AI boom, I created two indexes to show the disparity between the real bubble of the 1990s and what people are calling a bubble today.
The dotcom index starts from January 1, 1995. The AI index begins on the NDX low on October 13, 2022.
Both indexes are equal weight and rebalanced quarterly and begin at a base value of 10.
The two indexes began at a similar rate until the equivalent of late January 1998 when they begin to sharply diverge.
In the equivalent of October 1998, the dotcom stocks fell to a level to match the AI index at 95. Then they diverged sharply again.
The AI index peaked at 280 on October 6, 2026. At the equivalent point, the dotcom stocks were at 385.
At today's equivalent of 192, the dotcom group was around 414, 115% higher.
The dotcom index peaked on March 24, 2000 at 890, representing an equivalent move of 360% from yesterday's close for the AI group.
If this was the top for AI stocks, it would be a supreme disappointment, but would also lend itself to my argument that the real AI bubble will likely be the bull market led by AI applications that begins after more pure play AI application stocks hit the market.
Infrastructure bull markets tend to be the first peak in a two-peak cycle of revolutionary tech-led bull cycles.
These stocks were a discretionary choice that I personally made based on what seemed to be the best mix of leadership.
Dotcom constituents: EMC, AOL, YHOO, DELL, JDSU, AMZN, CSCO, MSFT, CMGI, ORCL
AI constituents: NVDA PLTR AMD ARM NBIS MRVL LITE BE MU DELL
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
WARREN BUFFETT ON WHAT TO DO WHEN YOUR STOCKS DROP 50%
On a day like today, this is worth hearing again.
"You're not going to pick the bottom, and nobody else can pick it for you. You've got to be prepared when you buy a stock to have it go down 50% or more and be comfortable with it."
He pointed out that Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B itself has dropped 50% three different times. "There wasn't anything wrong with Berkshire when those three times occurred."
The people who get hurt, he said, are the ones who borrowed to buy, or who react every time the price moves.
"If you can't handle it psychologically, then you really shouldn't own stocks, because you're going to buy and sell them at the wrong time."
"I don't know whether today is a great day to buy stocks. I know it will work out over 20 or 30 years."
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
On today's carnage
To me, this really "smells" of forced liquidation as an aftershock from 'blue tsunam' 🧢🌊
think of size of shock = combo of:
➡️tariff shock of 2025 --> blue tsunami "shock" 🧢🌊
➡️deepseek moment 2025 --> AI "super intelligence" bad
➡️situtational awareness of June 2026 --> ➡️several large hedge funds liquidating
Each of these prior shocks took time (only days) to "bottom"
- each of these prior shocks was a major buying opportunity
These shocks do not change the AI story:
➡️demand = strong due to major AI discoveries
➡️supply = there is no new "competitor" to AI or the bottleneck
➡️speed = there might be a 'speed bump' but a speed bump = oppty
This shock will soon pass
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
Charlie Munger: "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50%, you're not fit to be a common shareholder."
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
AI is the only theme where:
- a lot of capex = bubble
- less capex = it's dead
- unchanged capex = it's slowing down
- increased capex = it's not as fast as it used to be
- stocks up = overextended
- stocks down = still overvalued
- stocks giga down = too many risks
- good earnings = it's peak of the cycle
- mediocre earnings = it's over
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
Sooooo ...
Does this election impact data center developments in NJ? Nope.
Virginia? Nope
West Virginia? Nope.
Pennsylvania? Nope.
Georgia? Nope - the big OpenAI one was approved in August.
Texas? Guess what happens next month, folks? Oh, the current data center moratorium EXPIRES.
New York? Guess what happens in July 2027? Oh, the current moratorium on data centers expires.
Florida - Edgewater voted against data center development .. of which there isn't any happening anyway.
Kansas? El Dorado voted to ban massive projects but guess how many massive projects are going on there? NONE Emporia? Also voted against data centers ... of which none are being built (one was abandoned already). Ottawa KS? Oh they banned "utility-intensive" data centers. Guess how many are being built in Ottawa? NONE
Maine? Berwick banned large projects of which there are NONE. Peru, Wiscasset and Wells implemented 180 day moratoriums on projects that also don't exist.
Missouri? The towns of Chouteau, Granite City voted against data centers ... guess how many are being built/proposed there? ZERO
Illinois? The towns of Nameoki and Venice did the same thing. As for projects impacted? ZIPPO
Colorado? Boulder voted against data centers. Take a guess how many applications for data centers are in process there? Did you guess ZERO?
North Dakota? Uh, the people of Mandan actually voted in FAVOR of a data center and natural gas generation campus is in the planning stages by Stark Power.
Ohio appears to be the only state where meaningful projects may be impacted. Maybe.
People litterally voted against ghosts yesterday.
Scotty LGT Markets retweeted
Tonight’s outcome isn’t about placing faith in Democrats or socialist principles; it’s about holding Republicans accountable for betraying their promises.
All Republicans had to do was:
1. put Americans First
2. not start another war
3. prosecute sex traffickers
