โ๏ธSystems first. Thesis second. ๐Bitcoin through data, regimes & systematic models. ๐Founder, RR Terminal | Verified at @CryptoQuant_com & @ForeDex_Global
Joined December 2022
- Tweets5.2K
- Following2.5K
- Followers1.7K
- Likes24.2K
Leo Ruga retweeted
๐จ Binance Exploit confirmed
Binance (hot wallet) - Loss ~$2.53B (2026-10-29)
Network: Ethereum
Type: Delegation Abuse (EIP-7702) / Private Key Compromise
The Binance hot wallet 0x28c6โฆ1d60 was made to carry an EIP-7702 delegation (code 0xef0100 + 63e842b0โฆ) pointing at a wallet-drainer implementation โ the same kit flagged pre-drain for operator 0x7c8601d4 (Tornado-funded). In this tx the operator EOA (NOT the account owner) called sweep(address recipient, address[] tokens) = selector 0x8a179be4, and the delegate code transferred the wallet's entire token inventory โ ~1.62B USDT, 167K ETH, UNI, LINK, PEPE, ENA, wBETH, xaut, PAXG, WBTC and ~60 other assets โ to attacker collection address 0x5227f603c1ee34ce3c06efe6477003bdfccb2f8c. Net ~$2.53B drained. Setting a 7702 delegation requires a signature from the account's own key, so this is a signing/private-key compromise of an exchange hot wallet, extracted via an operator-gated universal sweep.
TX: etherscan.io/tx/0x53bd38b816โฆ
Attacker: etherscan.io/address/0x7c860โฆ
Victim: etherscan.io/address/0x28c6cโฆ
X: xitter.gq/binance
Data made by @DefimonAlerts
Leo Ruga retweeted
๐ BTC ULSR 8.7%, ์ด๋ฒ ์ฌ์ดํด์ โํญ๋ณตโ์ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ๋ณด๋ค ํจ์ฌ ์์๋ค
ForeDex ์ธ์ฆ ์ ๋๋ฆฌ์คํธ @RugaResearch ์ ๋นํธ์ฝ์ธ Unrealized Loss Stress Ratio ๋ถ์์
๋๋ค.
๐ข ํ๋ง๋ ์์ฝ:
2015ยท2018ยท2022๋
์ฃผ์ ๋ฐ๋ฅ์์๋ ULSR์ด *45% Capitulation ๊ธฐ์ค์ *์ ๋์ด์ฐ์ต๋๋ค. ํ์ง๋ง 2026๋
๋ ์ฐจ๋ก ์คํธ๋ ์ค ๊ตฌ๊ฐ์ ๋ชจ๋ *30% ์๋*์์ ์ ์ ์ ์ฐ์๊ณ , ํ์ฌ๋ ์ฝ *8.7%*๊น์ง ๋ด๋ ค์์ต๋๋ค.
๐ ULSR์ ๋ฌด์์ ๋ณผ๊น์?
์์ฅ ์ฐธ์ฌ์๋ค์ด ๋ณด์ ์ค์ธ ๋ฏธ์คํ ์์ค์ โ๊น์ดโ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ฌ์ฃผ๋ ์งํ์
๋๋ค.
์์น๊ฐ ๋์์๋ก
โ ์์ฅ์ ์์ค ์คํธ๋ ์ค๊ฐ ์ปค์ง ์ํ
์์น๊ฐ ๋ฎ์์ง์๋ก
โ ๋ฏธ์คํ ์์ค ๋ถ๋ด์ด ์ํ๋ ์ํ
๐ ํ์ฌ ํต์ฌ ์ ํธ
โ
*๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ์ฃผ์ ๋ฐ๋ฅ: 45% ์ด์*
โ 2015ยท2018ยท2022๋
์๋ ๋๊ท๋ชจ ํญ๋ณต์ด ํ์ธ๋ ๋ค ๋ฐ๋ฅ์ด ํ์ฑ๋์ต๋๋ค.
โ
*2026๋
๊ณ ์ ์ 30% ๋ฏธ๋ง*
โ ์ด๋ฒ ์ฌ์ดํด์์๋ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์ ๊ฐ์ ๊ทน๋จ์ ์ธ ํญ๋ณต์ด ๋ํ๋์ง ์์์ต๋๋ค.
โ
*ํ์ฌ ULSR: ์ฝ 8.7%*
โ ์ต๊ทผ ์์๋ ์์ค ์คํธ๋ ์ค ๋๋ถ๋ถ์ด ์ด๋ฏธ ํด์๋ ์ํ์
๋๋ค.
์ฆ, ์ด๋ฒ ์ฌ์ดํด์ โ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์ฒ๋ผ ๊ทน๋จ์ ์ธ ํญ๋ณต์ด ๋ฐ๋์ ๋์์ผ ๋ฐ๋ฅโ์ด๋ผ๋ ๊ณต์๊ณผ ๋ค๋ฅด๊ฒ ์์ง์์ ๊ฐ๋ฅ์ฑ์ด ์์ต๋๋ค.
๊ธฐ๊ดยท๋ํ ์๊ธ์ ์ํฅ์ด ์ปค์ง๋ฉด์ ์์ฅ์ ์์ค ํก์ ๋ฐฉ์ ์์ฒด๊ฐ ๋ฌ๋ผ์ก์ ์ ์๋ค๋ ํด์์
๋๋ค.
ํต์ฌ์ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์ 45% ๊ธฐ์ค๋ง ๊ธฐ๋ค๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ๋ณด๋ค, ๋ณํํ ์์ฅ ๊ตฌ์กฐ ์์์ ULSR์ ๋ค์ ํด์ํด์ผ ํ๋ค๋ ์ ์
๋๋ค.
This cycle's capitulation was the shallowest on this chart ๐
At the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bottoms, the $BTC Unrealized Loss Stress Ratio pushed through the 45% capitulation line. That was the floor signal every time. This cycle it never got there. Two stress waves in 2026, both peaking well under 30%, and now it has unwound back to 8.7%, near the low end of its range.
What this means mechanically: the market carried real unrealized pain, but it was never forced into the kind of mass surrender that marked previous bottoms. Most of that stress has already been released.
It's a theory I've been sharing with my mentees for a while: capitulation doesn't have to look like it used to. Bigger players are in this market now, cycles are more dynamic, and the pain gets absorbed in a different way.
So I keep thinking about everyone waiting for $40K. Most of them are probably still waiting. Are they reading the data in front of them, or a 4-year script someone sold them?
We have to adapt. This indicator is a classic. What changed is how the market behaves around it.
ForeDex goes well beyond this one, with a range of charts that read market structure in ways most of us aren't used to yet. Worth following ๐ค
Chart: @ForeDex_Global
Leo Ruga retweeted
This looks like a bullish accumulation setup: whales are accumulating while humpbacks โ usually a contrarian indicator โ are selling.
What do you think, @RugaResearch ?
pravatta.com/onchain
Leo Ruga retweeted
Our gamma model's call right now is: do nothing.
Dealers are net long gamma. Aggregate dealer GEX +$146MM, net signed +$29MM calls +$177MM against puts โ$148MM. That regime dampens swings. Textbook read: fade the edges. Put wall $75,000, call wall $79,000.
Two things say don't.
Spot is $76,691. The gamma flip sits at $76,288, 0.53% below. The entire "dealers dampen the move" thesis is half a percent from inverting.
And VRP is โ14.9. Implied vol 34.2 against realized 49.1. The options market is pricing a calmer tape than the one we already have.
Positive gamma says fade. Cheap IV says the regime is unstable. Those do not resolve, so the matrix lands on Cell B neutral and the read is: stay flat until the cell changes.
Most tools always have a trade. This one is allowed to say there isn't one.
Gamma Exposure ยท BTC ยท Deribit + IBIT โ RR Terminal
Leo Ruga retweeted
Bitcoinโs Rally Lacks Conviction Without Spot Support
โRallies without sustained spot demand are less convincing. Spot demand remains weak, leaving the current advance without solid underlying support.โ โ By COINDREAM
Leo Ruga retweeted
The RR Terminal is not just a collection of indicators, where we have to navigate and analyze each one individually.
However, it's a SYSTEM, and as such, it operates simultaneously with the data, providing us with solid information to support our decisions!
Leo Ruga retweeted
Spot and Futures Demand
โSpot and perpetual futures demand growth have both crossed back above zero on the 30-day sum. It is the first time in months that the two are positive at the same time.โ โ By @RugaResearch
Complete breakdown โคต๏ธ
cryptoquant.com/insights/quiโฆ
Leo Ruga retweeted
BREAKING: The US Treasury announces it will double the size long-term US government debt buybacks following the rapid surge in US Treasury yields.
Repurchases of $2 billion will now be increased to "at least" $4 billion, the US Treasury said.
The move is intended to provide "liquidity support" for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years as total US debt nears $40 trillion.
There is the intervention we have been calling for.
Leo Ruga retweeted
Volatility-Adjusted Momentum Just Crossed Below Zero, and the Risk Oscillator Is Back at Its Prior Turning Level
โTogether they describe a market with no support from either side of the book.โ โ By @RugaResearch
Complete breakdown โคต๏ธ
cryptoquant.com/insights/quiโฆ
Leo Ruga retweeted
Pravatta Terminal now has an Onchain Dashboard.
The idea is simple: quickly see which Bitcoin cohorts are accumulating and which are distributing.
Right now:
๐ Whales are distributing
๐ณ Humpbacks โ the largest whales โ are accumulating
Interestingly, Humpbacks tend to be on the wrong side of the market quite often, so I wouldnโt automatically read their accumulation as bullish.
This page was replicated from @RugaResearchโs Ruga Terminal: rrterminal.com/
Ruga has deep experience and knowledge in onchain analysis, so if you want to go much deeper into this data, definitely check out his terminal.
Leo Ruga retweeted
"Retail Is the Dumb Money" โ Then Why Is Retail Sitting on the Cheapest Coins in This Market?
Cost basis by wallet band, live:
Shrimp (<1 BTC): $52.7K
Crab (1โ10): $53.1K
Fish (10โ100): $53.6K
Humpback (>10K): $56.6K
Whale (1Kโ10K): $59.4K
Shark (100โ1K): $62.5K
Spot: $63.5K.
Every retail band holds a better entry than every large band. The most expensive coins in this market are not retail's. They belong to Shark โ 100 to 1,000 BTC wallets, 25.8% of supply, the largest single cohort, sitting 2% above break-even.
That is the level that matters. Below $62.5K the largest cohort in the market is underwater on average.
The flows say the same thing from the other side. Over 30 days Shrimp, Crab and Fish are net sellers, -44.7K BTC combined, while Humpback is the heaviest buyer at +27.2K. Retail is not chasing here. Retail is distributing into large-wallet demand.
Caveat: the smallest band carries dormant and lost coins that drag its average entry down. Treat it as a floor on the read, not the whole picture.
Cost-Basis Battlefield ยท Transfer Map โ RR Terminal
Leo Ruga retweeted
๐ณ Market Makers just printed a notable net outflow signal.
'Market Maker Netflow' has fallen to its most negative level since January 29.
๐ข Positive = $BTC moving net from exchanges toward Market Makers
๐ด Negative = $BTC moving net from Market Makers back to exchanges
โก๏ธ The latest reading is around -2.48K $BTC.
So instead of reducing exchange-side inventory, Market Makers are currently adding $BTC back to it at the strongest pace seen in more than six months.
Price can still absorb that supply.
๐ก But if negative Netflow continues while $BTC struggles to regain momentum, the market is being asked to absorb increasing MM inventory at the same time.
โ
A single spike does not determine direction, but the size of this move makes the next price response worth watching closely. ๐
Leo Ruga retweeted
AI agents are already paying each other on TRON.
Gasless USDT, cross-chain liquidity, x402 rails for machine-to-machine payments.
We're going live with @trondao to break it down.
๐
Aug 5, 10am PT
Save your seat โคต๏ธ
xitter.gq/i/spaces/1qKVmmYjnXnxBโฆ
Leo Ruga retweeted
Bitcoin Realized Volatility Compressed to Cycle Lows While ADX Builds Underneath
โThis combination has preceded some of the sharpest moves of the past few years. Not all in the same direction.โ โ By @RugaResearch
Read more โคต๏ธ
cryptoquant.com/insights/quiโฆ
Leo Ruga retweeted
Interesting divergence in dealer positioning today.
After today's 08:00 UTC Deribit weekly expiration, BTC options returned to a Long Gamma regime.
Meanwhile, IBIT (BlackRock ETF) options remained in a Short Gamma regime, with their weekly expiration only taking place at 20:00 UTC.
This means the two largest Bitcoin options markets were operating under different gamma regimes for most of today's session.
It's possible that the remaining negative gamma in the IBIT options market contributed to intraday selling pressure, partially offsetting the stabilizing effect of Deribit's Long Gamma regime.
Once the IBIT weekly expiration passes, that headwind disappears. Whether Bitcoin responds with some relief will depend on the new options positioning and, of course, any new macro developments.
Worth watching.
Leo Ruga retweeted
BitMEX recorded $84M in BTC futures volume yesterday, representing 0.08% of the market.
It was a great exchange that helped shape the industry, and now it is passing the torch to the next generation of exchanges it inspired.
Dear BitMEX Users,
Today, we share with a very heavy heart that BitMEX exchange will shut down its operations, effective 23 September 2026 at 04:00:00 UTC.
The owner and operator of BitMEX, HDR Global Trading Limited, has made the difficult decision to close operations following a strategic review of the business.
It may not look the same today, but we are proud of our 11+ year legacy and the role we played in shaping the crypto industry. We invented the 100x leverage perpetual swap, which for most of you, was the first step to your crypto trading journey. It is now the most traded financial product in the crypto industry, adopted by thousands of users and exchanges. And we remain proud of our robust security infrastructure, which has allowed us to maintain a flawless track record of 0 customer funds lost to hacks in our entire operating history.
We want to reassure you that your assets remain fully safe and under your control during this transition period. This announcement is just to give enough time to ensure a smooth withdrawal process for everyone.
From today we strongly encourage all users to close their positions and withdraw their funds as soon as convenient. For more details on the full process, please read our blog: bitmex.com/blog/bitmex-closuโฆ
BitMEX was once home to some of the greatest traders today. Our team has dedicated tremendous effort and passion into building the platform into what it is, and we are glad to have reached some of you during your time with us. To everyone who has traded, supported, and grown alongside us - thank you for your trust over the last 11 years.
The BitMEX Team
Leo Ruga retweeted
9,030 BTC Leave Binance as 30-Day Momentum Recovers from -21% Toward Zero
โMoved 9,030 BTC off the largest exchange while momentum recovers from extreme negative territory. That combination has historically resolved to the upside.โ โ By @RugaResearch
