Rush Street Capital is an industry leader in Commercial Debt. We help middle market companies raise capital. We specialize in all types of Commercial Lending.
Chicago, IL
Joined May 2015
- Tweets6K
- Following2.6K
- Followers1.4K
- Likes5K
Rush Street Capital retweeted
Thomas Sowell breaks down the 2008 financial crisis in a way that makes the whole thing much easier to understand.
From the housing bubble to bad incentives and risky lending, the crisis was the result of multiple factors coming together.
Sowell’s ability to explain complicated economic issues in simple terms is what makes his work so valuable.
Rush Street Capital retweeted
If you want evidence that capitalism is a force for good, just visit a grocery store.
My ode to the humble American supermarket, for @WSJFreeEx
Rush Street Capital retweeted
"This is, in my opinion, an incredibly bullish development."
@profplum99's live reaction as the US Treasury rolls out the program he outlined in March 👇
Rush Street Capital retweeted
Mostly this chart proves stereotypes to be accurate. I love love love where statistics sit on this chart: in the middle.
Rush Street Capital retweeted
After a soft 20 yr auction on the heels of an eventful morning for the US Treasury, some further thoughts here on what has transpired.
In my opinion, no lunch is free here. On one hand, we get lower long end rates (at least for today as I question the sustainability, just like with FX intervention) and Bessent is buying long term Treasuries well below par, likely those with coupons with a one handle or less that are trading at $.50 on the dollar and issued when short rates were at zero. But, by replacing that with T-bills currently yielding around 3.75%, US interest expense will go higher. Also, in response, the US dollar is trading at 3 month low today and if sustained, that imports inflation and could facilitate foreign selling of Treasuries for those not FX hedged.
Lastly, with even more short term bond issuance, it ties the hands (among other ties, like excessive gov’t spending) of Kevin Warsh & Co because raising short term rates (which I do not think will happen anytime soon) would be even more expensive for the US government, further inflate US debts and deficits, and result in another rise in long term rates. And, what happens if inflation flares up again, if Warsh doesn’t hike, the long end will do it for him.
What a box we are in.
Rush Street Capital retweeted
Vacation towns are about to get decimated.
Start in the 1960s. Somebody's grandparents bought a place like this on a middle class income. One earner, a decent job, a cabin on the water.
Their kids did a little better. Upper middle class, bigger house in the suburbs, and they bought a second home too. That was still normal.
Then look at now. Today the median first time buyer is 40 years old, an all time high, and first timers down to 21% of the market, an all time low.
People are hitting middle age before they close on a starter house, and plenty never do.
So the chain breaks right here. Three generations in, the handoff stops.
Now run it forward. The boomers own a staggering amount of this stuff, and over the next decade it will all come to market in the same window.
Lake houses, beach cottages, ski condos, desert casitas.
The heirs mostly don't want it. Insurance on anything near water, fire or hail has gone vertical. Property taxes reset on transfer in some states and just keep climbing in the others.
The dues on a resort condo run like a car payment and half these towns have cracked down on short term rentals, so the "it pays for itself" math doesn't pencil anymore either.
And an inherited house rarely stays inherited.
Somebody always wants the money instead.
So it gets listed. Usually right after probate clears.
Massive inventory is coming. But buyers aren't.
Get ready for these prices to go to rock bottom.
Rush Street Capital retweeted
A few common macro posts that come up over and over on this platform that you can mostly ignore.
1) “The Fed injected [X billion]…”
That’s usually the Fed recycling their maturing securities back into more of the same securities. Or the Fed doing some repo activity, adding a tiny bit of liquidity that comes back out the next day. This year, the Fed is growing their balance sheet very slowly.
2) “The Treasury bought back [X0 billion] of government bonds…”
The Treasury performing buybacks on its own debt is interesting because the deepest, most liquid capital market in the world shouldn’t need the issuer assisting with liquidity. And they could potentially shorten duration over time by issuing t-bills to buy back T-bonds, so that’s worth monitoring. But for the most part, these announcements are nothingburgers. The Treasury issues fresh liquid bonds to buy back aging less-liquid bonds. No appreciable impact on your money or investments.
3) The Treasury has [X trillion] in debt to refinance over the next 12 months, how are they possibly gonna find so many buyers?”
The vast majority of the Treasury’s debt that will be refinanced over a given year will be bought by the same entities holding it now. They’re holding t-bills, those t-bills mature into cash, and they buy the next t-bill. Money market funds, insurance companies, pensions, individuals, corporations, etc. Posting about gross refinance numbers is popular because the number is big and sensationalist, but it doesn’t mean much, which is why you hear about it for years and it’s fine. Net new issuance (about $2 trillion per year) is mostly what matters, and nothing stops that train.
4) “Banks have [X00 billion] in unrealized losses…”
Yeah that was a problem for about one quarter in spring 2023. It’s mostly a non-issue since then but whenever the quarterly number comes out, people love to report it like it’s devastating new information. The number is trending flat-to-down, and it’s a small portion of bank assets and equity capital.
Anyway, good morning. Carry on.
Rush Street Capital retweeted
Yet another very good summation of why the Fauci situation is so outrageous and such a big deal.
Happy 4th of July!!
Wishing You and Your Family a Safe, Joyful and Healthy 4th of July weekend filled with prayer and gratitude. Let's celebrate this great nation outside with friends and loved ones. Embrace your individualism and freedom of expression. We are all Americans - Equal in the eyes of God.
🤖 Made with AI
Check out my latest article: I am so grateful for the U.S.A. linkedin.com/pulse/i-am-so-g… via @LinkedIn
Rush Street Capital retweeted
The World Cup has turned America into a discovery channel for the rest of the world.
And they are not handling it well.
In the best possible way.
Here is what they are discovering:
Free public restrooms. Europeans pay every time.
Free water at every restaurant. Just appears.
Free refills. Coffee. Sodas. Iced tea. Unlimited.
Free chips and salsa before you even order.
Free warm bread with dinner.
Ice in drinks like civilized people.
Air conditioning everywhere. Not a moral debate. A fact.
Parking lots attached to the actual place you are going.
Drive throughs where the food comes to the car while you sit in it.
Ranch dressing by the gallon.
Tex-Mex that cannot be explained only experienced.
Dental care that actually works.
Buccee’s. There are no words for Buccee’s.
Then they found the grocery stores.
Five of them within one mile.
Each one the size of an aircraft hangar.
Burgers. Steaks. Brisket. Ribs. Pulled pork. Lamb. Veal. Every cut of every animal ever domesticated by human civilization available in one refrigerated aisle at ten in the morning on a Tuesday.
The Germans stood in the meat section for forty five minutes.
In silence.
Processing.
They finally understand why we do not have trains.
We have roads wide enough for the cars we actually drive.
Parking lots the size of small European countries.
Airports in every city worth visiting.
Why would we need trains.
The Germans are taking ranch home by the bottle.
The Dutch found queso and briefly lost the ability to speak.
The Japanese are photographing HEB like it is the Louvre.
The Czechs are weeping in West, Texas.
Welcome to America!
The greatest country on earth.
Rush Street Capital retweeted
BREAKING: AS OF THIS MORNING, 14 MAJOR HOUSING MARKETS IN BEARISH TERRITORY
These markets have negative year over year home prices with for sale inventory that is aggressively cutting prices and still can't find a buyer.
This is important as sellers are actively trying to find buyers, they cannot, and are continuing to cut prices. These markets are likely to go lower.
