@SPXVIX

I price where options are rich, cheap, and lying. VRP · Skew · Earnings implied vs realized · Risk · Premium seller. Not financial advice.

 Follow for educational🧵
linktr.ee/premiumseller
Joined April 2020
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SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 14
This is the type of data you need to know what to trade, when, and which side. IV rank tells you where a name's vol sits against its own past year, and 25 delta skew tells you which side of the chain carries the premium. $TLT ranks near the top at 58.5 and its puts price at 1.236x call vol, so the level is high and the downside carries the premium. $META ranks right beside it at 58.6, yet its puts price at only 0.884x calls, so the extra premium sits on the upside. $DIA flips it, with an IV rank under 20 but the richest puts on the board at 1.353x calls, and $BRK.B is close behind at 1.334x on a mid-range rank of 36. $MU is low on both at 5.1 and 0.744x. $SPX puts price at 1.327x calls against a 1.059x average for the rest.
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Update on this Frankenstein trade. I watched it everyday and was surprised how resilient it is. Currently sitting at +$4.4K, still juicy Theta, flat Gamma, almost flat Delta and Vega believe it or not. Will keep documenting this journey. What do you guys think?
SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 12
I just love the smell of Theta burn $$$ Up $4K+ so far, not bad for a new experiment in $SPX
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If you don't trade the 111, you are missing out. Thank you $IWM for the ~$400.
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1.8% jump in September durable goods orders, above forecast, and $SPX barely moved. Options price about a 27 point move either way today.
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Anthropic filed its S-1 yesterday and chip stocks rose, but fear in the options market barely moved. $SMH's fear gauge for Dec 18 went from 39.0% at Friday's close to 38.2% at Monday's. @grok, is the AI bubble now cancelled?
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Happy Tuesday! Yesterday was $SVIX, which bets against the closest $VIX futures. Today is the long side, funds that own $VIX futures. On a calm day those futures usually slip lower as they near expiring, and the nearest months slip fastest. $VIXY holds the nearest months, $VIXM futures a few months out. Over the last year $VIXY lost 43.6% and $VIXM lost 16.0%. The tradeoff shows when fear spikes: on Aug 5, 2024, $VIXM rose 22.6%, about half of $VIXY's jump. Follow if you want to know how options price a Fed decision day, with one landing tomorrow.
Card: long $VIX funds over the past year, Oct 27 2025 to Oct 26 2026. Two big numbers: $VIXY, which holds the nearest futures, lost 43.6%, and $VIXM, which holds later futures, lost 16.0%. Line chart of both daily closes from the same starting point, with $VIXY ending well below $VIXM. Bottom tile: $VIXM rose 22.6% on Aug 5 2024.

ALT Card: long $VIX funds over the past year, Oct 27 2025 to Oct 26 2026. Two big numbers: $VIXY, which holds the nearest futures, lost 43.6%, and $VIXM, which holds later futures, lost 16.0%. Line chart of both daily closes from the same starting point, with $VIXY ending well below $VIXM. Bottom tile: $VIXM rose 22.6% on Aug 5 2024.

SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 26
Happy Monday! Yesterday was about people who pay up for $VIX calls as crash insurance. Today turns that around with $SVIX, a fund that is short the nearest $VIX futures. On calm days it usually gains a little, and it closed higher on 58.2% of its trading days since it started in March 2022. The catch is how it loses. On Aug 5, 2024, fear spiked and $SVIX fell 38.9% in one session, wiping out more than a year of gains. Follow if you want to know why a $VIX fund holding later months bleeds less on quiet days.
Card: $SVIX, a fund short $VIX. Big number: a 38.9% drop for $SVIX in one session on Aug 5 2024. Small line chart of the $SVIX daily close from Mar 2022 to Oct 2026, with a dot at the bottom of the Aug 5 2024 drop. Below it: 58.2% up days since Mar 2022.

ALT Card: $SVIX, a fund short $VIX. Big number: a 38.9% drop for $SVIX in one session on Aug 5 2024. Small line chart of the $SVIX daily close from Mar 2022 to Oct 2026, with a dot at the bottom of the Aug 5 2024 drop. Below it: 58.2% up days since Mar 2022.

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Has anyone seen this before?!!! It popped up when i was quoting @allegrajacchia’s post 😅😅 @grok any idea?
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Going into Monday, $SPX options were pricing about a 60 point move either way from Friday's close. The index ended up about 53 points. It traded above the top of that range at times, then closed back inside it. Ensure the odds are on your side when trading 😉
Card showing $SPX for Monday 10/26, priced move versus actual move. Big numbers read 60 VS 53. Priced: about 60 points. Actual: up about 53 points. Measured from Friday's close to Monday's 10/26 close.

ALT Card showing $SPX for Monday 10/26, priced move versus actual move. Big numbers read 60 VS 53. Priced: about 60 points. Actual: up about 53 points. Measured from Friday's close to Monday's 10/26 close.

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Am I considered a creator? 🤣@allegrajacchia
Allegra Jacchia
@allegrajacchia21h
Big week for 𝕏 Creators. Lots coming 😗
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$SPY is sitting right on 765, the strike carrying the most call positioning, and the heaviest put strike is lower at 755. Added up across the next month, options positioning nets out to about minus $8.6B, a setup where hedging can make moves bigger.
Card titled SPY GEX map, from Oct 26 at 2:50 PM ET. Tiles: SPY spot 765.33, net gamma exposure for options out to 30 days negative 8.6 billion dollars, gamma flip 763, put wall 755, call wall 765. Below, a bar chart of net gamma exposure by strike from about 728 to 803, in millions of dollars per 1% move. Strikes below 763 are mostly negative, with the largest bar at 755. Strikes from 763 up are mostly positive, with the tallest at 765, though 766 and 767 are negative. Lines mark the flip, put wall, call wall and spot.

ALT Card titled SPY GEX map, from Oct 26 at 2:50 PM ET. Tiles: SPY spot 765.33, net gamma exposure for options out to 30 days negative 8.6 billion dollars, gamma flip 763, put wall 755, call wall 765. Below, a bar chart of net gamma exposure by strike from about 728 to 803, in millions of dollars per 1% move. Strikes below 763 are mostly negative, with the largest bar at 755. Strikes from 763 up are mostly positive, with the tallest at 765, though 766 and 767 are negative. Lines mark the flip, put wall, call wall and spot.

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SPXVIX retweeted
SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 26
I called it last night. $EWZ gapped down more than 25% at the open and $VXEWZ ( $VIX for $EWZ) is still down about 40%. The election premium came out as I expected. This is why you follow @SPXVIX 😉 @Mr_Derivatives if this is not worth a shoutout, then I don’t know what is 😎
SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 26
I might sound crazy but my lean is $VXEWZ ( $VIX for $EWZ) opens lower tomorrow, even with $EWZ down nearly 20% overnight. About half of Friday's 64 close was election premium, and that comes out once the vote is in. In 2014 it collapsed after the runoff, on a much smaller selloff.
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Here's the $SPX top 20 Delta Skew list for today. Next to its own upside calls, downside protection on $SPY is pricier than on nearly all of its biggest stocks. A month out, $SPY puts are priced at about 1.3x the vol of its calls, while its biggest holdings average about 1.05x.
Leaderboard card titled SPX TOP 20 25 delta skew, Oct 26 at 1:36 PM ET. It ranks the 20 largest SPY holdings by 25 delta put implied vol divided by 25 delta call implied vol for the Nov 27 expiry, 32 days out. SPY reads 1.324. The top 20 average is 1.051, weighted 1.074. Highest are V 1.175, AAPL 1.172, NVDA 1.111 and JPM 1.110. Then XOM 1.091, PLTR 1.075, MSFT 1.072, AMZN 1.061, LLY 1.060, JNJ 1.041, MU 1.038, TSLA 1.035, AMD 1.033, ABBV 1.030 and AVGO 1.024. GOOGL 1.002 and META 0.999 are flat. MA 0.969, COST 0.969 and WMT 0.955 have calls priced over puts. Every name sits below SPY.

ALT Leaderboard card titled SPX TOP 20 25 delta skew, Oct 26 at 1:36 PM ET. It ranks the 20 largest SPY holdings by 25 delta put implied vol divided by 25 delta call implied vol for the Nov 27 expiry, 32 days out. SPY reads 1.324. The top 20 average is 1.051, weighted 1.074. Highest are V 1.175, AAPL 1.172, NVDA 1.111 and JPM 1.110. Then XOM 1.091, PLTR 1.075, MSFT 1.072, AMZN 1.061, LLY 1.060, JNJ 1.041, MU 1.038, TSLA 1.035, AMD 1.033, ABBV 1.030 and AVGO 1.024. GOOGL 1.002 and META 0.999 are flat. MA 0.969, COST 0.969 and WMT 0.955 have calls priced over puts. Every name sits below SPY.

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Hey @Grok, analyze the entire U.S. stock market and tell me 5 stocks that have a high chance of going bankrupt in the next year. I want a "To Short" watchlist.
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No magic here @Mr_Derivatives, it's the options market talking. $QQQ
Heisenberg
@Mr_DerivativesOct 26
$QQQ Hold the blue box, I wouldn't be surprised we go after that $725.20 gap fill if so. Mini RSI bull divergence too. Just a mini.
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Robotaxi
@robotaxiOct 26
Houston, we have liftoff Bigger service area now live
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Insane buying volume in $EWZ. Highest since September 2021. No panic in Brazil.
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SPXVIX retweeted
SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 24
You might want to bookmark this post 😉 Big earnings week: $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and more. Each row has Friday's close, the move options price for this report, the average priced move and actual move over the last 8, and where the first open after each of those landed: below, inside or above its priced range. Across all of them, about 2 out of 3 landed inside. @grok does anyone else on fintwit give this away free? I'd bet I’m the only one.
Table "Earnings Week 10/26-10/30", card 1 of 2, 11 companies reporting this week, by day, before open (BMO) then after close (AMC). Each row: Friday 10/23 close; implied move for this print from the at-the-money straddle; average implied move over the last 8 prints; first open after those 8 prints below/inside/above the priced range; average absolute close-to-close move. VZ Mon BMO: 44.66, 4.4%, 4.2%, 0/7/1, 4.0%. KO Tue BMO: 92.71, 3.3%, 2.9%, 1/3/4, 2.8%. BA Tue BMO: 188.35, 5.7%, 5.0%, 0/7/1, 3.7%. GLW Tue BMO: 123.69, 9.2%, 7.7%, 1/5/2, 6.2%. V Tue AMC: 407.92, 3.4%, 3.4%, 0/6/2, 2.3%. STX Tue AMC: 630.49, 9.9%, 9.4%, 1/5/2, 10.2%. GOOGL Wed AMC: 320.21, 6.1%, 6.2%, 2/5/1, 4.1%. MSFT Wed AMC: 524.51, 5.2%, 5.1%, 2/3/3, 7.0%. NOW Wed AMC: 158.96, 10.3%, 8.6%, 3/3/2, 8.8%. FTNT Wed AMC: 179.99, 12.0%, 10.5%, 2/5/1, 9.4%. LLY Thu BMO: 1273.46, 6.6%, 6.3%, 3/5/0, 8.0%.

ALT Table "Earnings Week 10/26-10/30", card 1 of 2, 11 companies reporting this week, by day, before open (BMO) then after close (AMC). Each row: Friday 10/23 close; implied move for this print from the at-the-money straddle; average implied move over the last 8 prints; first open after those 8 prints below/inside/above the priced range; average absolute close-to-close move. VZ Mon BMO: 44.66, 4.4%, 4.2%, 0/7/1, 4.0%. KO Tue BMO: 92.71, 3.3%, 2.9%, 1/3/4, 2.8%. BA Tue BMO: 188.35, 5.7%, 5.0%, 0/7/1, 3.7%. GLW Tue BMO: 123.69, 9.2%, 7.7%, 1/5/2, 6.2%. V Tue AMC: 407.92, 3.4%, 3.4%, 0/6/2, 2.3%. STX Tue AMC: 630.49, 9.9%, 9.4%, 1/5/2, 10.2%. GOOGL Wed AMC: 320.21, 6.1%, 6.2%, 2/5/1, 4.1%. MSFT Wed AMC: 524.51, 5.2%, 5.1%, 2/3/3, 7.0%. NOW Wed AMC: 158.96, 10.3%, 8.6%, 3/3/2, 8.8%. FTNT Wed AMC: 179.99, 12.0%, 10.5%, 2/5/1, 9.4%. LLY Thu BMO: 1273.46, 6.6%, 6.3%, 3/5/0, 8.0%.

Table "Earnings Week 10/26-10/30", card 2 of 2, 10 companies reporting this week, by day, before open (BMO) then after close (AMC). Each row: Friday 10/23 close; implied move for this print from the at-the-money straddle; average implied move over the last 8 prints; first open after those 8 prints below/inside/above the priced range; average absolute close-to-close move. MA Thu BMO: 623.60, 3.6%, 3.0%, 1/7/0, 2.3%. MRK Thu BMO: 145.27, 5.2%, 5.0%, 1/7/0, 2.4%. CAT Thu BMO: 687.00, 7.8%, 5.3%, 1/4/3, 4.8%. BMY Thu BMO: 61.48, 5.5%, 4.7%, 0/8/0, 4.3%. MO Thu BMO: 74.31, 4.0%, 3.6%, 2/5/1, 5.4%. AMZN Thu AMC: 248.00, 7.9%, 7.1%, 2/3/3, 6.2%. INTC Thu AMC: 86.96, 9.9%, 9.8%, 3/4/1, 9.3%. XOM Fri BMO: 183.21, 3.9%, 2.4%, 0/7/1, 1.1%. ABBV Fri BMO: 285.64, 4.8%, 4.4%, 1/6/1, 3.5%. CVX Fri BMO: 233.21, 3.9%, 2.5%, 0/7/1, 2.4%.

ALT Table "Earnings Week 10/26-10/30", card 2 of 2, 10 companies reporting this week, by day, before open (BMO) then after close (AMC). Each row: Friday 10/23 close; implied move for this print from the at-the-money straddle; average implied move over the last 8 prints; first open after those 8 prints below/inside/above the priced range; average absolute close-to-close move. MA Thu BMO: 623.60, 3.6%, 3.0%, 1/7/0, 2.3%. MRK Thu BMO: 145.27, 5.2%, 5.0%, 1/7/0, 2.4%. CAT Thu BMO: 687.00, 7.8%, 5.3%, 1/4/3, 4.8%. BMY Thu BMO: 61.48, 5.5%, 4.7%, 0/8/0, 4.3%. MO Thu BMO: 74.31, 4.0%, 3.6%, 2/5/1, 5.4%. AMZN Thu AMC: 248.00, 7.9%, 7.1%, 2/3/3, 6.2%. INTC Thu AMC: 86.96, 9.9%, 9.8%, 3/4/1, 9.3%. XOM Fri BMO: 183.21, 3.9%, 2.4%, 0/7/1, 1.1%. ABBV Fri BMO: 285.64, 4.8%, 4.4%, 1/6/1, 3.5%. CVX Fri BMO: 233.21, 3.9%, 2.5%, 0/7/1, 2.4%.

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The math ain’t mathing here! I might need more coffee ☕️
End Wokeness
@EndWokenessOct 26
Round 1: 🏆Bolsonaro: 56.1 million votes Lula: 53.9 million votes Round 2: 🏆Lula: 64.1 million votes (+10.2M) Bolsonaro: 59.8 million votes (+3.7M) To give you an idea of how unlikely this is: all the eliminated candidates from round 1 got 9.33M VOTES COMBINED
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Can we get another 5% please? Good for my vacation in Brazil in 2027 with @RealtorStarShar 😎 maybe we take @1samdavid with us 😉
Watcher.Guru
@WatcherGuruOct 26
JUST IN: 🇧🇷 Brazil's currency "Real" crashes over 10% against the US dollar after Lula da Silva defeats Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential election.
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Pure elections repricing… look at $VXEWZ, no fear. xitter.cf/spxvix/status/21147186…
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterOct 26
BREAKING: Brazil's stock market collapses nearly -30% and the Brazilian Real loses -10% after President Lula da Silva is unexpectedly re-elected. Brazil's stock market has lost over $200 billion of market cap today.
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I called it last night. $EWZ gapped down more than 25% at the open and $VXEWZ ( $VIX for $EWZ) is still down about 40%. The election premium came out as I expected. This is why you follow @SPXVIX 😉 @Mr_Derivatives if this is not worth a shoutout, then I don’t know what is 😎
SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 26
I might sound crazy but my lean is $VXEWZ ( $VIX for $EWZ) opens lower tomorrow, even with $EWZ down nearly 20% overnight. About half of Friday's 64 close was election premium, and that comes out once the vote is in. In 2014 it collapsed after the runoff, on a much smaller selloff.
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