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I build and share quantitative models that *attempt* to predict future S&P 500 returns. All models are wrong, but some are useful.

Seattle, WA
Joined June 2022
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BREAKING: Iran directly rejects today's reports of a US-Iran deal breakthrough, saying "no new developments have occurred in this regard." Oil prices crashed nearly 8% today based on the false claim of a breakthrough. Iran says "definitely no new events or actions will take place" until the US fulfils all of Iran's 7 conditions.
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🇺🇸 *ORACLE FILES TO OFFER $10B OF COMMON STOCK - BBG *ORACLE SHARES EXTEND DROP TO 3.5% AFTER $10B STOCK OFFERING
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*IRAN SUPREME LEADER HAS GRANTED GOVT AUTHORITY FOR TALKS: IRNA
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IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAQCHI ON TALKS WITH QATARI MEDIATORS: NEGOTIATIONS ARE ONGOING AND PROGRESSING, BUT WE HAVE NOT YET REACHED A DEFINITIVE CONCLUSION
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BREAKING: An unidentifiable aircraft has just rapidly slammed into the ground in Palm Beach County, Florida, causing a crater in the roadway and debris spread across the street. The crash is roughly 7 miles from Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach and comes as US military air defense systems have been deployed around Mar-a-Lago.
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Iran announces talks are underway to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 2 days, as its foreign minister calls a U.S. offer of dialogue a "positive step." $USO
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Jim Cramer says next week "might be even worse" for tech stocks "Next week might be even worse, some crazy volatility, a lot of emotion" "I'm greatly concerned that we could see a slew of anti-data center politicians come in and stop projects" "The Neocloud companies have a lot to lose here because they have nothing to fall back on" The Nasdaq just closed its worst month since March 2025, with the midterms Tuesday and a decision on Iran expected Wednesday, as $CRWV $NBIS $QQQ wait on the results The calendar is doing the selling now via @MadMoneyOnCNBC, featuring @jimcramer
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A breakthrough has been reached in U.S.-Iran negotiations following Qatari-led mediation, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reports, citing sources familiar with the talks. A U.S. delegation is expected to join Iranian negotiators in Doha for direct talks after preliminary understandings were reached on Iran's nuclear program, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and financial incentives for Iran, with China and Russia expected to serve as guarantors of a potential agreement.
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US REPORTEDLY PREPARING SHORT, INTENSE IRAN STRIKES ON NOVEMBER 4 The Trump administration has reportedly warned Gulf allies to prepare for potential US strikes on Iran as early as November 4, one day after the midterm elections, according to MS NOW. Gulf states are reportedly urging de-escalation, while the US continues reinforcing its military presence in the region.
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Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election. Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane. It will not achieve objectives and will set off a new cycle of escalation.
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Nomura desk: Levered ETF selling now $41.2B , 2nd highest on record - Only Jun 5th 2026 was higher at -$51B
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Mag 7 with DeMark Sequential sell Countdown 13 at the top. Now with downside Countdown in progress - more on Hedge Fund Telemetry
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Higher AI adoption is now associated with weaker employment growth and higher unemployment, per Goldman Sachs
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This!
Replying to @QtheArsenal
VOLI, TDEX, and SDEX have always been available for free, in real time, on hundreds of feeds including Yahoo Finance which we show here. And a simple search found several others. So come on over, deconstruct skew, and learn what options are really saying.
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OMG… i forgot about this… talk about a Eulogy 🤣
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🔴BREAKING NEWS: 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 US strikes on the Bandar Jask area 27 minutes ago. 4 missiles targeted a Revolutionary Guard naval base in Jask
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U.S. Senator Chris Murphy: “… Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane…”
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FUN FACT: Today’s Binance hack is the largest robbery in human history. Current damage up to $6.1B. God help us all.
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BREAKING: Trump has just cancelled all rallies this weekend, per NBC News. Those include his Saturday rally in Kansas, and his Sunday rally in Dubuque, Iowa, just 5 days before the midterms. Only Daytona Beach tomorrow remains, with no events announced for Monday.
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