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On February 21st I warned my clients of the coming war.
On February 28th, the US attacked Iran.
Since then I've said one thing: this conflict lasts longer than anyone wants to believe.
On March 5th I said: buy Frontline ($FRO), Petrobras ($PBR) and Suncor ($SU), among others.
They are up 61%, 51% and 25% since. The S&P 500 is up 14%.
On September 26th I called for re-escalation. We are in the middle of it right now.
My thesis today: the market trades the headlines and stays blindly optimistic, while the trouble and risks are higher than ever.
My confidence has gone up and down, which I shared openly. It is now very high in this trade.
I get calls wrong too. I cut them fast and I say so. I seek maximum transparency, but sometimes I do screw it up.
It's not how often you're right or wrong but how much money you make when you're right and how much money you lose when you're wrong.
On X, I post every day on the biggest trade I can find, before it becomes consensus.
Right now, it's the energy complex. I call it "The Big Long".
You should follow me if you want to join me in finding alpha or die tryin'.
Bro…
Gotta manage those expectations
API Inventory Moves 10/27
Crude -2.031 million (exp. +800,000)
Gasoline +2.39 million
Distillates +380,000
Cushing -453,000
SPR actual -100,000
#oott #crudeoil #gasoline #distillate
Expecting sideways chop in WTI and Brent.
Could see WTI go down to $97 into elections.
Brent could go to $112.
Below that the chart would be telling us something that us bulls don't wanna hear.
The 3 day rule with $SOXX:
You can't be honest about markets and not note this chart today.
If you wait 3 days to call the woman back you won't seem so needy.
If you wait 3 days to put your short on you won't look so stupid.
There's now a path to a 10-15% rally between now and the midterms.
I closed my $NVDA short at a nothing loss, it was contingent on weekend developments which didn't happen.
Its time will come but not yet.
Thinking about taking the long side on select Semis as a short term swing and protection to my oil positions.
Sam Kovacs retweeted
Houthis claim they attacked Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery.
We were informed of explosions in that area approximately 14 hours ago
Markets are getting complacent AF on the oil situation no?
BREAKING: Yemen’s Houthis have reportedly struck Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery at Ras Tanura with a ballistic missile, triggering a fire at one of the Kingdom’s most critical oil export hubs, per Bloomberg.
Ras Tanura is the cornerstone of Saudi oil exports, housing a refinery with a 550,000 barrel-per-day capacity and a terminal that handled over 5 million barrels daily before the war. With Yanbu on the Red Sea already hit, Saudi Arabia’s two main export arteries are now under fire.
It comes as Riyadh reportedly offered Yemen’s Houthis $1 billion through Iran to halt attacks on the Kingdom, but the Houthis struck the kingdom's most vital terminal anyway.
Sam Kovacs retweeted
Higher for longer - that was the core message in my discussion with @CNBC Squawk Box Europe this morning.
Everyone is focused on the spot price of oil. But look further out: calendar 2027 Brent is holding around $97 a barrel. That’s close to $100 priced in for an entire year, not simply a short-term spike. That has implications for everything from industrial and agriculture production to transportation costs and inflation in the months ahead.
Now look at energy equities. The Munificent 7 are hitting all-time highs as the back end of the oil curve approaches $100. This is looking increasingly structural, not transient. It's the Revenge of the Old Economy in action.
The old economy is short-duration, asset-heavy and benefiting from higher commodity prices, whereas the new economy is long-duration, asset-light and increasingly exposed to higher interest rates and inflation.
The irony in all this is that the old economy is fuelling the new economy. AI needs electricity, transformers, copper, high-voltage cables and critical minerals. None of that exists without the physical world.
‘Generalists’ in the market are beginning to recognise what specialists across the physical economy has been telling us for some time: higher for longer isn't just centred on bottlenecks and disruption to the flow of hydrocarbons out of the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it’s a structural shift that is likely here to stay.
We’re electrifying the world for many reasons, chief among them the so-called energy transition. The original driving force of the transition, led by the Carter administration, wasn’t the need to adopt clean energy with climate change in mind; it was driven by an urgent need for energy security in response to the oil shocks of the 1970s.
We’re seeing a repeat today: the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and bottlenecks elsewhere, impacting our ability to source and transport hydrocarbons, is forcing states to turn to electrification.
Great discussion with @cnbcKaren and Steve Sedgwick - thank you for having me on.
Brent Crude oil in 4 charts
(Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Hourly)
1. Monthly: We clearly broke out of the channel taking the barrel down for years. Change of regime.
2. Weekly: We broke out above the key $105 level, validating the move higher.
3. Daily: A rising wedge was exceeded and the current top is currently being retested.
4. Hourly. What is looking like a bull flag, I'd be much more comfortable if we closed today above $115, Below $110-$111 now would be bearish.
So everything is looking good, but we are at a bit of a junction. At $113.6 as I type, we're a bit below where I want to be.
Need to be very flexible here, and react to what we're seeing.
This includes me.
*reminder that when everyone agrees something is going to happen, something else does.
The big question is if the fade in yields is a washout of a crowded short Treasury trade, or a change in regime.
If it's a change in regime then oil has to come down. If it's a washout, a lot of people are going to get their ankles broken on the crossover.
I have spoken at a couple, and attended most of George's conferences.
A handful of my best trades this year came from his conferences.
I''m not speaking at this one (I'm not a technician, I'm a master of all trades, jack of none), but I highly recommend.
Money will be made. Theses will be murdered. Feelings will be hurt.
In 6 hours, I'm letting you steal the best ideas of 20 Wall Street technicians (legally).
Grab your seats below before it's too late:
noble-capevents.com
Replays will be available.
Sam Kovacs retweeted
I'm joining The Morning Show shortly to chat about the oil market and oil & gas stocks:
xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1lJQRWMLg…
























