Sayer Martin (@SayerPM) header
Sayer Martin (@SayerPM) profile picture

Investor | AI-pilled | approximately right

Joined July 2010
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Sayer Martin retweeted
(1) Match the task to the time of day. (2) Take breaks like they're part of the job. (3) Stop scheduling hard thinking into your worst hours. (4) Subtract before you add.
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Sayer Martin retweeted
Last month I wrote about how we can build a positive and safe future for everyone: meta.com/thefutureisforevery… Every lab has the responsibility and incentive to move at the pace required to train its models safely, and the ability to take its own actions to ensure that happens. The reality is: - People won't want to use agents that are misaligned with them and that don't do what they ask, so labs have a strong natural incentive to make their models more aligned. There is a lot of debate about slowing progress on capabilities until alignment catches up. My view is that trust and alignment are quickly becoming the most important capabilities that will differentiate agents and models. Any lab that doesn't focus on alignment will fall behind. - Labs face significant liability if their models cause harm, so they have a strong incentive to prevent this as well. Meta delayed shipping Muse for several months to focus on safety and security. We didn't call for everyone else to do this before we would. We just did it as part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us. I'm proud of the security foundations we've built. - Engaging independent evaluators and advisors is industry best practice. MSL already does this today in several areas because it helps produce better work. Other labs can just do this too. In general, it would be helpful for there to be a larger and more diverse ecosystem of evaluators. - Committing the significant majority of compute towards serving people rather than racing towards recursive self-improvement is one of the best ways to ensure we develop this technology safely. Meta has made this commitment and other labs can do this as well. I believe the key to building a positive future for everyone is maintaining the right balance of power. This is within our power to do.
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Sayer Martin retweeted
use muse for investing!
Just built a simple but pretty useful dashboard with Muse. It goes through my trade confirmation emails and then benchmarks all of my trades against SPY performance since the trade. Buys earn positive alpha when the stock beats SPY and sells earn positive alpha when SPY beats the stock. Then it plots the aggregate alpha weighted by notional value over a time-series chart. I can also see alpha by every single trade. I actually used to maintain such a trade execution journal with a spreadsheet, but gave up due to sheer laziness as I had to manually input my trades. Well, not anymore😀
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Nobody can hold the number one spot for a full week anymore. GPT-6 Astra dropped and saturated benchmarks that were built over the last few years. Forty-eight hours later, Anthropic fired back with Fable 5.1 and retook the crown on broad capability. Then they formalized a 358-year-old proof in math. Meanwhile, Tesla launched the lollapalooza of autonomous Robotaxis on public roads. We're past the point where any of this feels normal. -- Cybercab: $30K, full autonomy, no wheel, no pedals. Waymo: $100K+. Buy ten Cybercabs, deploy them, earn passive income. -- GPT-6 Astra: 99.9% ARC AGI 3, 98% Frontier Math, 100% Exploitbench. But on broad economic capability, Fable 5.1 still holds the crown. -- GLP-1 drugs extended mouse lifespan by nearly 100 days, equivalent to 8–10 human years. -- Fermat's proof took Wiles 7 years and 300 pages. Anthropic formalized 13 million lines and proved 29,000 new theorems along the way.
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Sayer Martin retweeted
The AI jobs prediction so far is playing out the opposite of what many thought. The reason this is happening is because AI is bringing automation to areas that don’t have finite demand characteristics. AI allows companies to do far more than they could before, but agents still require human operators and oversight to generate value from them. And not only has AI not replaced many of the types of jobs that theoretically would have been most affected by AI - engineers or lawyers - but AI is also creating or growing entire categories of jobs across the economy. Cybersecurity, FDEs, agent operators, engineers in non-software domains, and tons of job categories are going to explode. It’s not clear if or when this trend will reverse because we keep discovering all new areas of demand that AI is going to open up.
The jobs apocalypse is postponed. An AI jobs boom is here According to @TheEconomist, AI is actually proving to be a net job creator in the US, easily generating over 1M new positions (from data center construction to AI engineering) to offset back-office layoffs. While routine admin and customer service roles face real disruption, the overall labor market is proving resilient. economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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Sayer Martin retweeted
1/ we just publicly released Muse Spark 1.3 max! we see significantly stronger coding and agentic performance on muse spark 1.3 max, so would strongly recommend trying it out even if you've already tried muse spark 1.3 high or muse spark 1.3 xhigh.
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Sayer Martin retweeted
We’re sharing the next major milestone in our non-invasive brain-to-text decoder research: Brain2Qwerty v2. Building on v1, which was published today in @Nature, Brain2Qwerty v2 is the highest-performing end-to-end pipeline capable of real-time sentence decoding from raw brain signals. It advances beyond character-level performance to decoding words and semantics, enabling accuracy for overall communication. We believe this research has the potential to make a real difference for the millions of people who suffer from brain lesions or disorders that prevent them from communicating. 🧵👇
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Sayer Martin retweeted
Today I'm publishing a new essay, Policy on the AI Exponential. AI is progressing extremely fast—much faster than the policy process was built to handle. The essay lays out where I think the technology is now, and the action needed to close the gap: darioamodei.com/post/policy-…
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A BIT OF FINANCE In the 80s and 90s, on average, one bank failed (and closed) every other day. Since 2000, we have had an average of 1 bank failing & closing every week. So ignore those technologists who know nothing of financial history.
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How ChatGPT Will Forever Change Customer Expectations hubs.li/Q01xWVNn0 Written by @sayerpm of @CongaHQ
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Sayer Martin retweeted
Meta AI presents CICERO — the first AI to achieve human-level performance in Diplomacy, a strategy game which requires building trust, negotiating and cooperating with multiple players. Learn more about #CICERObyMetaAI: bit.ly/3GBwLzx
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Sayer Martin retweeted
anyone who succeeds fails a lot, and learns to dust themselves off faster each time it's the people who fail and just stop trying that...fail
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Sayer Martin retweeted
Figma is now $20B proof that if people say “that market has already been solved”, then they’re probably wrong.
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🚨 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 6.28%.
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Sayer Martin retweeted
Contrary to popular belief, blowing into Nintendo game cartridges didn't fix them by removing dust Removing and reinserting the cartridge increased the chance of a good connection
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Sayer Martin retweeted
I had so many ideas for the keyboard for the original iPhone. xitter.gq/kocienda/status/153995…
The best way to get good ideas is to generate a lot of ideas.
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Sayer Martin retweeted
Their memory will not be forgotten. Their legacy is all around us. Thank you to the fallen heroes and their families whose sacrifice forms the bedrock of our society. 🇺🇸
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Real estate agents/brokers: what are you seeing in your local housing market right now? 🏡 If you’d like to stay anonymous, DM me and I’ll share below.
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Sayer Martin retweeted
You are sabotaging your own personal and professional growth if you're not finding time to read. These are the books that changed my life, and what I learned from them:
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