⛳️ The Legacy Club @scselig got nuked. #BroadStreetBag #Flyers #Bitcoin $BTC $QNT - Top 0.3% on TS: Scselig1 @nbatopshot
Joined December 2021
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Sam retweeted
10k kids born today, 10k new 530A accts auto created by @USTreasury w $1000 in the S&P 500 compounding for 18 yrs. 10k kids born tomorrow, 10k new accounts. And the day after. Forever. 🇺🇸💰🚀
Sam retweeted
hearing some chatter that anthropic is now lowering down to $1tn to get this IPO done. let me explain why this doesnt matter and its actually all over-
the entire existence of this company is based on a funding model that inherently has extreme asset liability mismatch. what that means is that just like the hyperscalers are diluting their equity fund capex, there is an expectation that anthropic will also have to do the same. ie it needs strong equity to perpetuate the scheme
but if you IPO at the wrong price (and dont get a pop which increasingly appears they wont be; spacex already below) then youre now in the death spiral that crypto investors should be very familiar with: its called the reflexivity trap of the confidence game. its the "ill bid FTT at $22 all day" or the "steady lads UST is $1" game, with all its lucid horrors. and here is the key insight- the confidence game exists at the service of the creditors. if there is no credit, there is simply no equity. and there is no credit, if there is no collateral
if the credit rating agencies are not going to give IG at $2tn, they are certaintly not going a better HY rating at $1tn. and there is no world in which anthropic can exist without credit because ~$1tn of commit, much of which is noncancellable, is a straight up negative equity pledge
yet there were two scenarios in which i was willing to concede anthropic could IPO: first 1) the improbable but possible was if the hyperscalers/chips oligopoly came to rescue and plug the hole, given their incestuous nature of revenue bookings and paper gains/losses at scale. but it is clear now that the market has spoken this will lead to a mutual death, and should not be attempted. or perversely even better, they are actually better off letting anthropic go to zero so they can acquire the pieces on the cheap which is the best nash equilibrium outcome, not just for the dominant player but for society at large. second 2) the us government can nationalize the company and collude with other sovereigns (like UAE, Saudi, Japan who are basically already the checks) to force its funding as a collective bargain. this gives you trillions, which is actually the most effective backstop to restore market confidence. the first edge case does require an IPO, but the second edge case here for which i believe there is still a good chance that this is the ultimate end game- will require a failed IPO to recapitalize at a normalized price for the consortium (and dont forget that openai front ran this investor group in anticipation of this dynamic to play out as a private co last month)
i believe the market is crapping out today because the market is recognizing it will not IPO. and actually, as ive said before, this is a very good thing. i might even imagine that the market could quickly rebound on the news of its IPO being delayed because it allows #2) to play out, as not only a national, but an international bailout. the US is more likely to tolerate, even relish, the taxes of foreginers to fund our domestic companies. that is the only end game that really matters, and the end game i am going to be excited to see
we'll see if this newly revamped washington can figure it out
Sam retweeted
I see some people are upset I said America is over and the American Dream is dead. I really do believe it.
The thing is, and I have respect for older generations of America…. But many older people and even some Gen Xers refuse to recognize that the America we live in today, the America we are voting in today is not the same America our parents or grandparents grew up in.
We now have an environment in which about half of the nation is actively organizing and voting against America, against our sovereignty, against our culture and against our values. There has never been a time before in our country where half the nation votes for communism and Sharia Law.
This isn’t just another election where we move on when the other party loses. The parties are not the same. Many who claimed to be in the GOP have developed Woke Reich, Neo-Nazi like views and a lack of reason which makes them blame all of life’s issues on Israel, and then the other half of America, the Democrat Party, has a base who is also consumed by conspiratorial brain rot which has made them GOTV for communists and jihadists who openly call for America to be destroyed.
So when people say:
You are being too dramatic and they say it’s just another election, I tell them they couldn’t be more wrong.
This isn’t 2008 pre “fundamentally transform America”.
No. We are officially past the point of “fundamentally transforming America” as Barack Hussein Obama, the father of the DSA, set out to do in 2008.
We are already fundamentally transformed, and when he used the word transform, he meant destroy.
I would appreciate if people would recognize this because I am not a quitter. I have fought tirelessly. But we need to be realistic.
If you refuse to name your enemy, you will never defeat it.
If you refuse to accept reality, you will never see it.
I hate to say it, but America is over. The communists and jihadists are going to open our borders and replace our votes with votes from illegals aliens. We now have reps who openly speak about their hatred of America, their love of communism and their support for sharia law.
We won’t be able to undo the damage they cause on our country come 2028.
America 250 was a funeral.
The American Dream is dead.
Sam retweeted
JD Vance is a snake. The next president should be Marco Rubio.
Listen to this brilliant speech by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that sparked massive Muslim outrage by exposing the Nazi roots of the Palestinian cause. Both the Nazis and Hamas jihadists seek to create “a world without Jews.”
Sam retweeted
There are numerous oddities about vote counts, etc. in this election...here is another...and maybe the biggest...
I, like some of you, have a circle of like-minded Conservative friends (about 30). My wife has a similar circle (about 20).
Neither of us know of anyone who shifted or voted Left (but we know some who shifted Left to Right). Not only do we not know of anyone who shifted Left, when we contact these people, none of them know of anyone either!
Yet, statistics show that virtually every county in the US shifted Left.
Please do me a favor, ask around and see if you can find a single Conservative you know who voted Blue.
Sam retweeted
Another #Flyers choke job. They were up 2-1 with less than seven minutes to go in the third period.
Rick Tocchet benched Knuble, Martone, and Michkov for most of the third period. Parking the bus did not work for him.
They've lost 14 of their 18 games this season. They're the worst team in the Eastern Conference. What a start.
Sam retweeted
No, Mr. @JDVance
Israel isn’t why you lost. You lost because you let radical Islamic voices take over your universities, schools and the minds of your youth.
You lost because you let them dictate the narrative on Israel, convince Americans their tax dollars fund Israel while ignoring the billions sent to enemies of the United States , from Afghanistan to the Palestinian Authority.
You lost because you allowed anti-American radicalism to flourish in the name of free speech, infiltrate your institutions and poison the next generation.
You chose appeasement over leadership. What was easy over what was right.
You haven’t just lost an election. You’ve surrendered the country you were supposed to lead.
Sam retweeted
This has gone very badly for JD Vance. This video explains just how badly. It’s insane: Despite his position and patronage opportunities, he seems to have no friends who matter; i.e., he is cooked.
After he posted this risible screed—not a “Mea Culpa” but an “Israel Culpa”—distorting Trump’s words from the day before and stabbing his boss in the front while echoing, just in more civilised language, the core arguments of his close friend Tucker Carlson, not one of the many hundreds of elected national Republicans came to his aid with a repost or a supportive comment.
They hate him. He has no base beyond the small clique of publicly unknown postliberal think tankers. The Vanceguard is just smoke and mirrors.
Of the 30,000 regular reposts, the most senior Republicans of any kind to support his post appear to be Vickie Paladino, a city councillor in Queens, and Walter Hudson, a Minnesota state representative.
His unprecedented attack by a VP on a sitting president might lead to historical events, so it’s important to preserve this kind of ephemera.
Why did he do this? Most likely Vance understood that he was about to get thrown under the bus and decided he had nothing to lose. It always seemed likely Vance and his allies would get scapegoated by Trump for a defeat, and that became much more likely when the scale of the collapse became clear, and as it was also clear that Vance’s allies had betrayed Trump in ultra-damaging ways, most of all his mentor, Tucker, with his 100-million-view nuke post.
So here, for posterity, is the full list of the accounts with over 10,000 followers who RTed his attack on his boss and his own administration.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Sam retweeted
⭕️ Vance’s X post will go down in history as one of the biggest political miscalculations by a sitting vice president. Vance thought Trump’s base was made up of idiots, like the morons who listen to his buddy Tucker Carlson. (Yes, that’s how little he thinks of MAGA.) He figured the MOU debacle would eventually be forgotten. But he just found out that Trump’s base is much smarter than he gives them credit for. They pointed straight to the MOU as the turning point when the war started going downhill. And now the whole thing has backfired on him. What Vance failed to understand is that a huge majority of Trump’s base still wants to finish the job against Iran. They haven't forgotten what happened, and they aren't buying the excuses. And now they see him for what he really is: a backstabber and a disloyal vice president.
Sam retweeted
The midterms are over.
Oil futures are crashing. Middle Eastern stocks are soaring.
So they sold stocks and bought oil futures to push gas prices up and make Trump lose?
Now the election is over, they're selling the oil and buying stocks again.
Is that what happened?
Sam retweeted
Every GOP strategist, consultant, and candidate should be forced to participate in a role-playing exercise this morning.
Your name is Bob. You’re a 49-year-old blue-collar worker in Ohio. You’ve always struggled to make ends meet. The good jobs were all shipped to China and the few remaining pay a pittance wage, undercut by endless illegal labor.
You’re a 3x Trump voter because you believed he would finally make America great again.
You put your son through Ohio State. He graduated cum laude in computer science. You couldn’t have been prouder. After months searching, he landed an entry-level job at Microsoft. Beneath his qualifications, but a good start for a smart kid.
Then he got laid off. That same month, Microsoft applied for 150,000 more H-1B visas because it can’t find qualified Americans.
Your son has spent six months back in his childhood bedroom, sending hundreds of applications without landing an interview.
On TV, Trump boasts about the greatest economy in history and how many women and minorities are finding jobs.
You decide a father-son steak night might cheer him up.
Gas is $4.50 a gallon. Filling your truck costs over $100. At Kroger, ribeyes are $30/lb. You settle for hamburger, even though 70/30 ground beef still costs $10+.
At checkout, a fat black woman is screaming at the cashier because her EBT will only cover most of the filet mignon and lobster in her cart.
You think to yourself how the Iran war has made everything expensive, but at least we’re stopping their nuclear bomb. You weren’t even sure where Iran was before you googled it after we first bombed them in March.
After dinner, you take your son to the county fair. Half the people aren’t speaking English. Virtually none of the crowd looks like you. You’re forced to leave early after a “teen takeover” turns violent. A foreign born judge pledges none of them will go to jail.
Back home, you turn on the TV. Vivek Ramaswamy is lecturing the crowd about American mediocrity and why Ohio needs more foreign talent.
Your son grows upset. You change the channel.
Now a Republican surrogate, the daughter of a governor or wife of an elderly billionaire, explains that young White men are the REAL welfare queens. They’d rather play videogames in their parents’ basements than work.
Your son says nothing. He just goes back to his childhood bedroom. You turn off the TV.
Then your neighbor starts blasting reggaeton and cracking open Modelos. He brought his cousin’s family from Mexico to help with all the minority-business contracts his construction firm keeps winning. Tonight they’re celebrating his nephew’s birth, the family’s first birthright American citizen.
You sit alone in your living room.
You worked hard, paid taxes, obeyed the law, and raised your son to do everything right. You voted Republican again and again because you believed somebody in Washington would finally fight for you.
Instead, your wages are stagnant. Groceries are unaffordable. Your community is unrecognizable. Your country is fighting another foreign war.
And upstairs, the son you sacrificed everything for is lying awake in the bedroom he slept in at twelve, wondering what the heck he’s even supposed to do with his life now.
Every time you turn on the TV, the Republicans you elected are either congratulating themselves or explaining why you and your son are the problem.
For ten years, they told you America’s future depended on your vote. Now you aren’t even sure America has a future worth defending.
The Republican Party needs to answer one simple question this morning:
You’ve spent a decade demanding Bob’s loyalty. You’ve given him stagnant wages, unaffordable groceries, another foreign war, and a son who did everything right but can’t find work.
And when they complain, you call them lazy, entitled, and racist.
What possible reason have you given Bob and his son to vote Republican? Do you honestly think you deserve their vote?
Sam retweeted
Hi JD, since you're explaining why Republicans lost the midterms, there's something I'd really like you to explain.
Just recently, you publicly defended your friendship with Tucker Carlson and confirmed that the two of you still speak.
Then, days before the election, Tucker told 100 million people that Trump is considering a nuclear strike on Iran, supposedly based on inside sources in the administration. He even claims to know what you're personally advising the president.
And you haven't said a word about it.
Now, I'm not suggesting you're Tucker's source. But the fact that you've publicly acknowledged your friendship and ongoing communication with him puts a pretty enormous spotlight on you.
Tucker Carlson is a habitual liar. He lies constantly, contradicts himself, and has spent the past few years telling Americans how wonderful Russia and Qatar are while painting the most miserable picture imaginable of America. His entire operation is dedicated to convincing Americans that their country is hopeless and their enemies are somehow more admirable.
Now he's spreading panic about an impending nuclear war just days before an election, and people who ordinarily despise him are suddenly treating him as a credible journalist. (Even Christiane Amanpour amplified him!)
And you're telling us that the war is why Republicans lost, without so much as acknowledging what your own friend was telling tens of millions of Americans right before they voted.
If you know Tucker is lying, why haven't you publicly called him out? And why would you want to remain friends with someone who is knowingly spreading such an outrageous lie about the administration you serve in?
And there's another thing about your post that doesn't make sense to me. If you still believe that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is vital to American national security, then shouldn't you be apologizing to Americans for failing to make that case?
I understand that Americans are frustrated with the war and the price they're paying at the pump. But if you genuinely believe we're dealing with a threat of this magnitude, surely your responsibility as vice president is to explain why confronting it is necessary, including why Americans might have to endure some economic pain in the process.
Instead, you're now treating public frustration as though it settles the question of whether the war was justified in the first place.
If you believe the threat can be dealt with later, explain how. If you believe diplomacy can still work (as Tucker claims), explain what happens when Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Are we supposed to accept a nuclear Iran because gas is expensive? What happens if Iran starts charging tolls in the Strait of Hormuz after America leaves?
And if you never believed this war was necessary in the first place, then I think you owe Americans an explanation for a number of your own public statements defending the administration's position. I understand that a vice president has obligations to the president, but that doesn't explain away your own words or your role in shaping policy.
You were personally involved in these negotiations. You had an enormous platform to explain the stakes to Americans. If you believe this was necessary for our national security and Americans rejected it because they didn't understand why, then that is also a failure of leadership, including yours.
And I'm tired of watching anyone who questions you immediately accused of being an Israeli operative, Israel First, or secretly paid by Israel.
If you think I'm wrong, address what I'm saying.
I don't think anyone being intellectually honest can look at this situation and pretend there aren't some very serious questions about Vance's conduct here.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Sam retweeted
Are you seriously blaming it on the relationship with Israel? How dare you? Israel is America’s greatest ally. We love America. What are you on about? Maybe blame the radical left who wants to open the gate for the Islamists to destroy America from within? How dare you blame us?
