Software engineer. baseball and cats. sometimes space and software engineering. My opinions are my own. she/her 🏳️🌈
Los Angeles, CA ∞
Joined March 2009
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While you're here, please check out mayorbass.com/
Made by the wonderful @FilmThePoliceLA
This dump had the highest participation for the district we've seen so far making up 1.19% overall and 1.62% of the drop.
We have around 414,000 ballots remaining.
Since Election Night, CD9 averaged 1.35% of the vote in each drop.
Here's a breakdown of how much of the vote share he needs based on different scenarios:
1.19% participation of remaining: 61%
1.35% participation of remaining: 59%
1.62% participation of remaining: 56%
The ballots remaining count is calculated by taking the the estimated ballots remaining and multiplying that by 1.19% (participation after this drop) and by 1.16% (weighted average participation after each drop)
Rates of change for this drop from this mornings:
CD3 4PM:
Girvan: +1.36%
Gaspar: -1.36%
CD9 4PM:
Ugarte: +0.93%
Mazariegos: -0.93%
CD3's rate of change has been pretty steady, fluctuating back and forth, letting Barri maintain her lead.
Estuardo is up to 48.6% (916 votes behind). Gaspar's concession is *long* overdue at this point.
Ugarte: +990 (42.4%)
Mazariegos: +1,345 (57.6%)
Girvan: +1,567 (58.43%)
Gaspar: +1,115 (41.57%)
xitter.gq/UnrigLA/status/2118760…
I don't think residents of LA County realize how lucky we are to have the @LACountyRRCC.
They are the gold standard for civic engineering. Everything from how they count votes to how they provide information, the formats they provide it in, and ease of finding it.
I appreciate that LA Basin and a few other people are showing graph of drops as a time series, instead of just my bash + google sheets tracking I hacked together in the primary.
But none of this is possible without the @LACountyRRCC. They are the gold standard others should copy
Maths Cat retweeted
The police labor contract expires in eight months.
The police union is going to try pressuring Nithya into massive raises. They’ll come to her saying, “if you give us big raises we’ll leave you alone for four years and let you govern. We’ll even endorse you.”
Fuck that. Don’t let Nithya bend. Put more pressure on her than the union does. Use your platform/voice to inform people about what’s at stake.
🎉 🎉 🎉
Los Angeles, I am deeply honored to be your next mayor.
I just spoke with Mayor Bass and expressed my deepest gratitude for her leadership and decades of service. Los Angeles would not be the city it is today without her.
I love this city. I believe in its people. The work ahead will be hard, and change will take time. And together, we are going to build a future as extraordinary as the city we call home.
Thank you, LA. Let’s get to work.
To clarify on this, CD3 is really close.
But if every drop after this has Tim Gaspar gaining 0.53% more of the new votes than he did in the previous drop, he would not be able to pass Barri Worth Girvan.
So far the leftward shift is still in her favor.
