CPA. Constantly researching to get an edge. Looking for asymmetric returns. High tolerance for volatility.
Joined September 2020
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Serge retweeted
Considering the potential Marvell-Lumentum equity swap at a ~$115B valuation, $NOK’s intrinsic value comes into a completely new light.
Nokia’s 2024 announcement (completed 2025) to acquire Infinera for just $2.3B was an absolute steal — executed right before Wall Street realized the magnitude of the AI optical inflection. Today, acquiring that same vertical integration (including U.S.-based InP wafer fabs) would easily command $50B+. Paired with Nokia’s legacy Silicon Photonics and IP routing dominance, its data center optical stack is almost unmatchable. Nokia also has its Fixed Networks business, where it holds a dominant market-leading position (outside China).
Looking at current market multiples, Nokia’s fair enterprise value should realistically sit at $100B–$150B (a 2–3x re-rating from here) when comparing to others — and that is attributing more or less zero value to its Mobile Networks (MI) division.
Mobile Networks acts as a free call option on future distributed AI edge compute AI-RAN. Plus, Nokia’s patent portfolio alone prints >€1B in high-margin annual operating profit.
Maybe Wall Street will catch on once hyperscaler optical/IP contracts go public (IF) or as Nokia's earnings acceleration takes off post-2026 balance sheet cleanup. Hopefully patience will pay off.
#Investing #Optical #AIInfrastructure #Semiconductors $NOK $MRVL $LITE
$NOK Look at this list of announcements, progress and partnerships - all of which in September alone. And the month isn't even finished yet.
Seriously, look at it.
🔥 $NOK — ONE CATALYST AFTER ANOTHER: NOKIA’S AI TRANSFORMATION 🚀
September has been packed with developments showing $NOK expanding beyond traditional telecom equipment into AI-RAN, optical networking, AI infrastructure, agentic AI, defense and next-generation connectivity.
📅 SEP 1 🇸🇦 — $NOK opens its first Saudi Arabia R&D center focused on AI-powered network automation and orchestration.
📅 SEP 3 🤖 — $NOK says “The era of AI-native RAN starts now,” highlighting its push toward open, programmable AI-native networks.
📅 SEP 3 🏥 — $NOK + BeeHealthy bring network-based verification to digital healthcare.
📅 SEP 8 🤖 — $NOK launches Mobile Core Early Access, allowing operators and enterprises to test next-generation mobile-core technology.
📅 SEP 9 🇫🇮🔥 — $GOOGL announces at least €13B investment in Finland for AI and digital infrastructure. $NOK highlights co-innovation with $GOOGL around Optical & IP networks.
📅 SEP 10 🌐 — $NOK + Orange France complete a live network tomography trial, supporting AI-ready infrastructure.
📅 SEP 10 🇺🇸 — Planters Broadband selects $NOK for an AI-ready fiber network in southeast Georgia.
📅 SEP 10 🤖 — $NOK launches Cognitive Operations, combining AI, edge computing and mission-critical connectivity for mining, public safety and defense.
📅 SEP 14 🛡️ — ESpanix deploys $NOK Deepfield Defender for DDoS protection.
📅 SEP 15 🌐🔥 — Telxius deploys $NOK 800G Coherent Pluggables across Europe, the U.S. and Latin America to support growing cloud, AI and data-center connectivity demand.
📅 SEP 16 🚀🔥 — $NOK + $NVDA accelerate AI-RAN adoption with A1 Group, Chunghwa Telecom, du, e&, Mobily, stc, TPG Telecom and Zain Saudi. $NOK says its AI-RAN platform has achieved 20%+ spectral-efficiency improvement.
📅 SEP 16 🇬🇧 — $NOK Defense + C3IA partner on UK defense digital transformation, including tactical communications and autonomous systems.
📅 SEP 17 🤝🔥 — $NOK + $MSFT integrate Nokia Data Suite with Microsoft Fabric, accelerating agentic AI and autonomous network automation.
📅 SEP 18 🇺🇸🔥 — Nscale files for a U.S. IPO, reporting $103B+ in contracted value, a $45B Anthropic AI-compute agreement, and a $1B NVIDIA investment. Nscale is also a $NOK stakeholder, making this an important indirect AI-infrastructure read-through for $NOK.
📅 SEP 18 🇦🇪🔥 — du + $NOK achieve the world’s first six-carrier aggregation deployment on a commercial 5G-Advanced network, combining 420 MHz of spectrum.
📅 SEP 18 📞 — Scailarc + ELISA + $NOK demonstrate a call handled without answering, powered by IMS Data Channel and Nokia Network as Code.
📅 SEP 18 📈 — B. Riley initiates coverage of $NOK with a $15 price target, citing AI, $MSFT and 5G developments. (Analyst view.)
📅 SEP 21 🇪🇺🔥 — $NOK is scheduled to rejoin EURO STOXX 50, putting the stock in focus for index-related flows around the rebalance.
🔥 THE EMERGING $NOK STORY:
$GOOGL AI Infrastructure
→ $NVDA AI-RAN
→ Nscale / $103B+ contracted value
→ $MSFT Agentic AI
→ Optical & IP
→ 800G
→ AI-ready Fiber
→ 5G-Advanced
→ Defense & Autonomous Systems
→ Network Automation
→ EURO STOXX 50
🚀 ONE CATALYST AFTER ANOTHER — $NOK IS BUILDING A MUCH BROADER AI-NATIVE NETWORK STORY.
$NOK First Mover Advantage.
News:
"Nokia accelerates AI-RAN adoption as global operators embrace AI-native network evolution on NVIDIA platforms."
19 operators signed up for initial deployments starting later this year.
20% downlink spectral efficiency demonstrated
Multiple AI-native app partners including
@pulsone, @ZaiNarTech, and @deepsignl
Radio Networks that can sense, plan, and, act. AI is here for radio networks and @Nokia and @Nvidia are bringing it to the world first.
$NOK Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $15 price target.
"Nokia is "quietly becoming" one of the best positioned optical assets amid the AI buildout."
"This valuation is "potentially conservative" since Nokia's mix will move significantly toward AI over time"
"Nokia is powerhouse AI optical franchise trading at a telco multiple."
Rosenblatt initiated coverage of Nokia $NOK with a Buy rating and $15 price target.
The firm says Nokia is "quietly becoming" one of the best positioned optical assets amid the AI buildout.
Nokia has won significant share in scale-across, which is the hardest of the three fabrics to displace once designed in, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Rosenblatt says its $15 price target is based on the company's one-third AI infrastructure exposure and two-thirds telecom. This valuation is "potentially conservative" since Nokia's mix will move significantly toward AI over time, the firm adds.
It says Nokia is "powerhouse AI optical franchise trading at a telco multiple."
Serge retweeted
Nokia is regaining its spot in the euro area’s main stock benchmark as Volkswagen loses its place in the latest sign of the difficulties facing the region’s automotive industry bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Serge retweeted
Jensen mentioned Nscale last night.....
NVIDIA → Nscale → Nokia
NVIDIA supplies the AI compute, Nscale builds the AI infrastructure, and Nokia $NOK is positioned as a networking partner and investor in Nscale.
$NOK Just speculation, but all signs pointing to Trump wanting some sort of stake or partnership with Nokia.
Huge if true.
$NOK U.S. Development Finance Corporation CEO Ben Black was in Helsinki today meeting with $NOK leadership to discuss 5G/6G infrastructure, AI data centers, and Western tech stacks.
Key takeaways:
🔹 Mandate: DFC is backing "Western-friendly" tech to secure critical infrastructure.
🔹 Scale: DFC manages a $205B war chest to co-finance strategic projects.
🔹 Role: Positioning Nokia as an essential partner in US & allied tech supply chains.
$NOK continues to prove its strategic geopolitics moat.
$NOK Trump administration investment boss on mystery trip to Finland – Important meeting with Nokia. (Finnish article)
(High-level U.S. officials heading to Finland for strategic meetings with $NOK leadership)
Source:
kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/a/24b…
$NOK Trump administration investment boss on mystery trip to Finland – Important meeting with Nokia. (Finnish article)
(High-level U.S. officials heading to Finland for strategic meetings with $NOK leadership)
Source:
kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/a/24b…
Serge retweeted
$NOK breakout finally. This is only the first step.
Excited for this one from a fundamental and technical perspective and wouldn't be surprised to see it double eventually. Here's why:
If data center demand is strong (which it is) the future won't be able to do it without optics.
To achieve the needed speeds, data centers are moving away from traditional copper wiring and shifting entirely to optics (like Indium Phosphide lasers and silicon photonics).
And NOK is well positioned for this:
• They own Infinera after a major acquisition last year, a major optical networking company, which means they own a major share in the manufacturing for Indium Phosphide, a key material used in high-speed optical chips. COHR and LITE are the other major players. Indium Phosphide supply is extremely limited and Nokia has its own in house process.
• In addition to a 20-fold expansion at its legacy Infinera fab in San Jose, Nokia finalized a definitive agreement to acquire NXP Semiconductors' massive manufacturing campus in Chandler, Arizona. Nokia is completely repurposing this campus into a dedicated InP photonic chip production facility.
• While Coherent and Lumentum focus heavily on raw chip fabrication, Nokia holds a massive competitive advantage in backend advanced packaging and testing.Through its Allentown, Pennsylvania facility, Nokia expanded its domestic photonic packaging throughput by 10 times. This means Nokia can build the raw InP chip and package it into completed optical engines entirely on U.S. soil.
Exploding Order Momentum
- Nokia’s Q2 financial data confirms that its AI narrative is reality, not hype. Net sales to AI & Cloud customers grew 105% year-over-year. The company booked a massive €2.8 billion in AI & Cloud orders in a single quarter. Crucially, Nokia's total accumulated AI technology orders have swollen to 6.3 times its current quarterly revenue for that segment. This massive backlog creates clear revenue visibility through 2027 and 2028.
Margin Expansion via Vertical Integration
-Because Nokia owns its own Indium Phosphide fab capacity and advanced packaging, it does not have to pay a markup to merchant suppliers like Coherent or Lumentum. This vertical integration protects Nokia from supply chain constraints and expands margins.
Geopolitical Backstop
-Regulators are moving to restrict Chinese optical transceivers. As one of the few companies capable of manufacturing, packaging, and testing InP optical engines entirely on U.S. and European soil, Nokia is capturing a captive, high-security market. Following its recent financial reports, analysts from Bank of America lifted their price target to $18.50, and JPMorgan extended a target of $21.00. It's currently trading at $10.
$NOK
Very lazy surface-level take. You have to look under the hood.
- AI & Cloud customer sales: +105% YoY
- Optical Networks: +20% YoY
- IP Networks: +16% YoY
- Technologies: +15% YoY
Top-line <10% is skewed by legacy telco drag. They’re actively divesting low-margin hardware to re-rate as an AI optical infrastructure play.
Context matters.
$NOK growing below 10% YoY is good to you?
By 2028, I think it has maximum 2x upside. Easy trade has been made.
$0.58 (EPS for 2028) x 30 P/E = $17.4
Would prefer to buy other pure-play names if one wanted exposure in the photonics buildout.
Neither bearish nor bullish. Neutral.
