Director of Research @serotonin_hq • Prev: @MessariCrypto • Nomad 🌎

Chicago
Joined August 2015
Pleasure chatting with @doctorfission of @FissionXYZ on Ep. 02 of Conviction. We discuss: > The $10M Series A led by @PanteraCapital > How Fission quotes instant liquidity for tokenized funds > Private products like ARKVX by @ARKInvest & @Securitize for a diversified portfolio
Ep. 02 of Conviction with @Solofunk is live. Our guest is @doctorfission, CEO & Co-Founder of @FissionXYZ. His Conviction: The opportunity of tokenization lies in democratizing private markets, not public ones. 00:00 Introduction 00:53 Jonathan's Conviction 01:49 Private Market Problems 05:32 Fission Swap Walkthrough 07:38 The Upgrade to Legacy Fund Structures 09:46 Fission's Series A & Working Capital 11:29 How Does Fission Quote? 13:21 How Fission Enables Integration with DeFi 17:17 Liquidity Means Better Products 18:34 Private Products in Diversified Portfolios 23:06 Inevitability of Tokenized Private Markets
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The market cap of $CREDITSTR by @token_works is now $2.7M, past its launch-day ATH of $2.5M. @jackbutcher keeps cooking. A @Uniswap CCA auction for $BALANCE is ongoing. It will be Jack's first-ever token, tied to his Credits/Statements NFT collection. Launches tomorrow! My initial entries on $CREDITSTR weren't great, but it feels good to have maintained conviction and let the thesis play out. This experiment has been sick. All its iterations have been so novel, plus the art is sick. The flywheel is in full gear, and 43.4% of CREDITSTR supply has been burned, more than any @token_works strategy token! The mechanism @Rhynotic created was a perfect fit.
Doubled down on $CREDITSTR by @token_works. Market cap is $900k. Treasury holds $850k in ETH + $98k in Credit NFTs. Total value is $948k. $CREDITSTR is trading at 0.95x NAV. Can't help but feel this is underpriced. All Credits are now circulating. There is no more overhang. Floor price is ranging around a healthy $60. CreditStrategy is actively cornering supply and is already the largest holder with 1.25% of all Credits. Even if the floor drops, 89.6% of CreditStrategy's ETH remains to bid it. ETH runway is currently 7.2 days and should last until burning for Statements goes live next week. Only a matter of time before floor price bottoms and the flywheel begins.
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Tomorrow, @doctorfission from @FissionXYZ joins us for Ep. 02 of Conviction∎
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This is the craziest piece of technology I’ve ever seen. It’s shocking. We are in the future, and science fiction is becoming reality. The rate of acceleration in tech in our lifetimes is unprecedented. I’m grateful to be living in this era. Wen Mars?
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For all my @Blockworks friends going to @blockworksDAS, you have to go! Wish I could be there. Always a blast. Wonder what timepiece @ajbanon will pick this time 👀
Poker night is back. 🃏 Join us on 9 November at the Royal Horseguards Hotel in London to open @blockworksDAS week, co-hosted with @FlowTraders and @Blockworks. 120 players only. Limited seats. If you don’t play, come for the live jazz and immaculate conversation.
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ICYMI - @Figure is one of crypto’s major success stories, having tokenized over $24B in Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) to save ~120 basis points in per-loan costs. @HastraFi bridges Figure’s business with DeFi. In less than a year, Hastra has turned $648M in real-world credit into composable tokens that can be lent against and looped on protocols like @Morpho and @kamino. Tokens like $PRIME, $AUTO, and $SMB finance loan originators like Figure, Agora Data, and Credibly. They expand access to yield opportunities across three distinct credit classes spanning home equity, consumer auto, and small business lending. Real-world credit is becoming productive DeFi collateral, and Hastra is paving the way for retail investors to access novel yield from consumer and commercial credit. Props to @mcagney and @reidlikeabook for steering this ship and trailblazing!
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The @Figure and @HastraFi teams are onchain credit trailblazers. The expansion of $PRIME to Ethereum has been a massive success. It is the 7th-largest collateral asset by active loans on @Morpho, trusted by @SentoraHQ, @Bitwise, and @gauntlet_xyz. I expect $AUTO to follow.
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Writing reports for @arbitrum, topping the @KaitoAI leaderboard, and being part of the community was a highlight of my time at @MessariCrypto. One of my takes I wrote about in the Messari Crypto Theses 2025 is playing out. @Arbitrum now has a native stablecoin, in partnership with @global_dollar. As $USDG supply on Arbitrum One scales, an (undisclosed) portion of interest generated by the underlying treasuries will flow to the ArbitrumDAO treasury. As I expected, Season 2 of the DeFi Renaissance Incentive Program (DRIP) will focus on driving the stablecoin's growth. Two days after launch, USDG supply is $26.2M, accounting for 0.6% of Arbitrum One’s total stablecoin market cap. Assuming growth to $426M, 10% of the current total, and a 3.5% APY, ArbitrumDAO would generate $14.9M in annual revenue. That is just over the $391.5M in $PYUSD on the network, and about half of the $812M in $USDT0. Those numbers show that scale is feasible, but I don't expect $USDG to reach it quickly. DRIP Season 2 should push supply toward $100M, and likely past it if backroom liquidity deals are in play, but growing into the hundreds of millions will be a challenge. I wouldn't expect that level of scale until 2027. Nonetheless, Arbitrum’s economic engine keeps churning.
Arbitrum should launch a native stablecoin in 2026. Scaling the stablecoin to become a revenue stream yielding $5 to $20 million annually is feasible. @arbitrum already runs incentive programs to grow DeFi verticals. This is a lay up. Napkin math below.
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Attractive yield opportunities from @HastraFi and its growing ecosystem of composable credit tokens. > Allocated to $srAUTO on @ExponentFinance for 12.4% APY (7.5% base + 4.8% incentives) > Will loop $AUTO at 3.8x leverage for 21% APY on 30-day fixed-rate markets on @kamino
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I'd rather we push the envelope and see what's possible for onchain credit. Lots of novel uses happening with these assets being borrowed against and looped (@HastraFi, @paretocredit, @USDai_Official, @maplefinance, etc.). Quarterly assets like ACRED have proven difficult to integrate, as @anzep13 says. The liquidity/duration problem has become clear to everyone, and it limits composability. But if liquidity providers like @FissionXYZ, or other players using infrastructure like @multiliquid_xyz, can price the exit of longer-duration assets and enable integrations with DeFi, then let's try it. The potential unlock is worth it, and we don't need to handhold retail "lenders." That is a personal risk decision, and one that will largely be outsourced to institutional curators and leading centralized exchanges/fintechs anyway.
Hot take: private credit is the best RWA to hold and the worst one to borrow against. @PanteraCapital showed in their latest report that it's already the most used RWA in DeFi, with 44.7% of it sitting in DeFi protocols. Here's why that's risky: 1) DeFi lending relies on selling collateral fast when loans go bad. 2) Private credit exits through redemptions that can take weeks and get gated in a crunch. 3) So when collateral needs to be sold, liquidations fail and bad debt piles up. 4) The USDC lenders who thought they were earning "safe" yield are the ones left holding it. Liquidity is still an issue for some RWAs, especially private credit. I'd be really careful looping it, it's probably not worth it for a few extra % APR. Not every asset is meant to be looped or leveraged.
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Most people earning rewards from FIFA or Visa loyalty programs will never know stablecoins are involved. That's the point. @itsbhaji of @centrifuge explains how SMT runs those programs onchain, passing yields and rewards straight through to customers.
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Pleasure working with @nomos_paradox, @jensenhaji, and the @ChronicleLabs team on this research! Only 29.2% of the tokenized asset market's value offers verifiable, asset-level holdings data. If unaddressed at the projected trillion-dollar scale, that becomes a systemic risk.
Only 29.2% of tokenized assets are verifiably transparent. $12.3 billion is asking for trust. These are the findings in Chronicle’s new report, where we evaluated 20 of the largest tokenized assets against five measurable dimensions of transparency. Read the full report: chroniclelabs.org/resources/…
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Centrifuge has no existing equity, just a token. As institutional partners performed due diligence on @centrifuge, being a token-governed protocol kept coming up as a risk. @itsbhaji explains CP172, which passed with 98% approval and will convert CFG into tokenized equity.
Ep. 01 of Conviction with @solofunk is live. Our first guest is @itsbhaji, Co-founder & CEO of @centrifuge. Her Conviction: finance will be rebuilt around onchain vaults. "All assets in the future will be tokenized." “As ETFs leapfrogged mutual funds, vaults will leapfrog ETFs as the next fund structure that the largest asset managers in the world will build their strategies around." "The token was coming up in a lot of these conversations as a risk for working with Centrifuge. We were losing deals that we weren't even participating in, because these large institutions have mandates where they can't take on the risk of building their business with a token-governed protocol." "Companies need one value accrual mechanism. Those that manage token businesses and equity businesses at the same time often struggle with conflicting incentives."
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Conviction is live! Each 20-minute episode will highlight the convictions of those building at the frontier of onchain finance. Pleasure to have @itsbhaji from @centrifuge as our first guest. Don't forget to like and subscribe. It would mean a lot!
Ep. 01 of Conviction with @solofunk is live. Our first guest is @itsbhaji, Co-founder & CEO of @centrifuge. Her Conviction: finance will be rebuilt around onchain vaults. "All assets in the future will be tokenized." “As ETFs leapfrogged mutual funds, vaults will leapfrog ETFs as the next fund structure that the largest asset managers in the world will build their strategies around." "The token was coming up in a lot of these conversations as a risk for working with Centrifuge. We were losing deals that we weren't even participating in, because these large institutions have mandates where they can't take on the risk of building their business with a token-governed protocol." "Companies need one value accrual mechanism. Those that manage token businesses and equity businesses at the same time often struggle with conflicting incentives."
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So excited to put out the first episode of Conviction with @itsbhaji from @centrifuge! I didn't expect to become a video editor, but it has been fun, as has the creative process leading up to all this. Final hour tweaks and designs are being made. Catch Ep. 01 tomorrow!
We're launching a show at @serotonin_hq! I'll be hosting guests on 20-minute episodes about how finance is moving onchain, highlighting the convictions of those building at the frontier. The first episode of Conviction∎ drops this week.
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We're launching a show at @serotonin_hq! I'll be hosting guests on 20-minute episodes about how finance is moving onchain, highlighting the convictions of those building at the frontier. The first episode of Conviction∎ drops this week.
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In case you didn't know what a tombstone is. Watch out for a @serotonin_hq announcement coming on Monday 👀
This is a tombstone ∎
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This is a tombstone ∎
Conviction∎ Academic. Analytical. Editorial. Structured. Measured, Precise. Methodical. Sourced.
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New RWA just launched, and it could set a precedent. ARK Venture Fund by @ARKInvest is an SEC-registered fund available to retail investors that invests in both public (@SpaceX, @Figure) and private companies (@OpenAI, @Kalshi, @AnthropicAI). The fund is tokenized on Ethereum by @Securitize, with tokens minted and delivered to your wallet T+1. ARK will offer up to 5% redemption liquidity quarterly. This is where instant liquidity providers like @FissionXYZ and @multiliquid_xyz can step in to offer a quicker exit. The fund is open to investors regardless of accreditation, and if instant liquidity is available, $ARKVX could become collateral on DeFi protocols like @Morpho. The @SECGov approving this move may set a precedent. Tokenized share classes could become a standard feature for registered funds, rather than requiring one-off bespoke relief each time.
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