Stocks, LEAPS. Married with children...
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Joined March 2022
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$IREN update, SL hunt behind us. I still think there's a high chance of another deeper pullback. But we're due some positive news about Horizon in few days. So I'm holding my LEAPS bought under $36 (I took a loan, lol) till we get to $50 or I'll double down if it drops first.
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
This isn't a bad worst-case scenario, though it might be a bit worse.
Since the election, the market overreacted, acting like it was 50%.
There are some political radicals out there who would call that a good start, but over 25% (estimates range from 28-33%) of the capacity projected to come online in 2027 is in Texas.
Here's what we know for Texas:
- The state Senate is still Republican.
- Hinojosa's transition team has a Republican union member.
- She has stated permitted data centers aren't at risk.
- Her campaign platform on data centers was more moderate than a number of Republicans.
- She wants local communities to have more say in the building of these data centers (local zoning laws are unusual in Texas, so this wasn't always happening).
- Abbott's moratorium ends in December, and he is expected to approve a wave of projects that would carry us into 2028.
- Hinojosa wants to wait on permitting additional data centers until the legislature passes bipartisan regulations on their build out.
In Texas, it looks like the realistic worst-case scenario is some moderate add to expense and time. In a -8% capacity scenario nationwide, that only makes projects that get built more valuable, so this likely offsets the added cost.
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Tomorrow could trigger the stock market's biggest rally
President Trump could become the 8th president in history to lose both the House and Senate to Democrats
What happened to the S&P after, on average:
• 1 month later: +2.1% (6 of 7 times positive)
• 3 months later: +10.7% (7 of 7 times positive)
• 6 months later: +17.5% (7 of 7 times positive)
• 1 year later: +15.5% (7 of 7 times positive)
This has only happened 7 times since 1954 and prediction markets have the odds this happens at 71%
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
We lost one of the greats of stage and screen today. And, in my book, a tremendous friend and man. I learned so much from him. I will miss you, Patrick Stewart, all of my days. @mang0ld
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
V roku 1973 havaroval pilot vetroňa v Lomnickom sedle. Prežil.
Na nosidlách ho naložili na lanovku. Kabínka spadla. Prežil.
Naložili ho do záchranky. Záchranka havarovala. Prežil.
Si to sem odkladám, lebo mám taký meh deň.
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
$SPCX is using a very attractive off-balance sheet deal to raise debt for GPU purchases.
@elonmusk has been on an anti-neocloud tear all weekend while these terms were being finalized. Now we know why.
SPACEX $SPCX JUST SIGNED A $40B LEASE DEAL WITH APOLLO $APO TO PAY FOR AI CHIPS
The money will help SpaceX buy Nvidia chips, per Bloomberg. The deal is structured as private bonds issued by a separate entity that stays off SpaceX's balance sheet.
It's expected to close before year-end, with the leases starting in the first half of 2027. The interest rate hasn't been set yet.
ALT Photo Credit: Alisha Jucevic/Bloomberg
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
🚨 FUNDSTRAT HEAD OF TECHNICAL STRATEGY @MarkNewtonCMT SAYS IT'S TIME TO BUY THE DIP IN TECH:
"Energy rallying almost +40%, that spread to technology, now it's spreading to healthcare, which just hit new all-time highs."
His advice:
"Investors need to be prepared for these shifts in sectors."
"Right now, in my opinion, it's right to buy the dip in technology."
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Semis are now cheaper than the market. Unless this time is different ie earnings cuts.
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Well ok then, I'll bite.
@SemiAnalysis_ is once again full of crap.
"And here’s the truth for you: onepicture, >24GW of datacenters in advanced stage of construction, all to be delivered in 2027."
No your "platform" does not have accurate tracking, nor does it have a right interpretation of such.
E.G. Crusoe - Texas.
According to SemiAnalsysis, 1GW of the Childress "Hyper" Campus for $META, will be delivered in 2027.
What does the more accurate tracking show us?
Pic 1. Satellite image from 10/18, yes, that was yesterday.
Pic 2. Aerial image from 10/9, 1.5 weeks ago.
Clearly this is in very early stages of construction, they have 6 transformers in their bulk substation, but there is hardly any step-down infrastructure in place.
Lookign at the actual building foundations, this is absolutely not a 2027 story.
But why would you trust me? My last name isn't Patel, I'm no famous headphones wearing AI quant?
Maybe listen to the actual company itself?
Crusoe has 3 TDLR filings for Project Hyper, 3 separate buildings, which 3 separate completion date. February, April, and May of 2028.
I added building 1 as the 3rd image, to make it clear this will not be a 2027 deployment.
So, a picture with many data centers may look very impressive, but SemiAnalysis uses free satellite imagery for its paid subscribers, to then mislead them with wrong intel that could be sourched for absolutely free with ChatGPT.
STOP PAYING MONEY TO THESE CROOKS, THEY ARE NOT RESEARCHERS, THEY FILL THEIR POCKETS WITH YOUR MONEY TO BUY NEW HEADSETS FOR EVERY NEXT INTERVIEW, STOP GETTING FLEECED BY THESE BASEMENT DWELLERS AND CANCEL YOUR SUBSCRIPTION TODAY.
SemiAnalysis: Datacenters
SemiAnalysis sees 51.2GW of datacenter capacity being added in 2027.
"Year-to-date, slightly under USD 1T of binding / non-cancellable datacenter leases have been signed – that’s key to supporting our aggressive 2027-28 forecast."
SemiAnalysis claims Brad Gerstner's @altcap claim of only 25GW being built in 2027 is incorrect, based on satellite images showing >24GW of datacenters in advanced stage of construction, all to be delivered in 2027.
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Right now @SemiAnalysis_ has a pseudo-monopoly on tracking the AI Buildout after buying out @citrini. I'm looking forward to @OrnnExchange and @silicondata to provide independent research to keep the analysis honest.
Ornn Exchange
I had a call with @OrnnExchange and they have satellite images tracking 500 sites and having independent research from them would be great. @wayne_nelmz, @gpujaff, @CharlieSheiner. They also have transaction data and I can affirmatively say GPU prices are still going up.
Silicon Exchange
@stevehou heads research at @silicondata and they also track technology development trends have have transaction data for GPU prices.
SemiAnalysis: Datacenters
SemiAnalysis sees 51.2GW of datacenter capacity being added in 2027.
"Year-to-date, slightly under USD 1T of binding / non-cancellable datacenter leases have been signed – that’s key to supporting our aggressive 2027-28 forecast."
SemiAnalysis claims Brad Gerstner's @altcap claim of only 25GW being built in 2027 is incorrect, based on satellite images showing >24GW of datacenters in advanced stage of construction, all to be delivered in 2027.
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Blackwell Ultra (B300) GPU rental prices up 17 consecutive days to a new all-time high, according to Compute Desk's index of verified transactions from U.S. neoclouds.
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Neuvěřitelné nesmysly. Trump - nejvyšší americký velitel - buď absolutně netuší, o čem mluví, nebo totálně lže. Nevím, co je horší.
Ukrajina dostala za Bidena od USA jen něco přes 600 střel Patriot.
USA vystřílely za TŘI DNY války s Íránem 800 střel Patriot.
Ukrajina nedostala od USA ANI JEDNU střelu Tomahawk.
USA použily proti Íránu přes 1000 střel Tomahawk a vyčerpaly třetinu až čtvrtinu všech svých zásob. Toto množství bude doplňovat dlouhé roky, vyrábí se zatím jen kolem stovky střel za rok.
Alea iacta est. Bought more. Now it's $23 as next level. Bottom is near, I'm sure🤣🤣🤣.
$IREN
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
U.S. ECONOMIC DATA — OCTOBER 15, 2026
INFLATION — SEPTEMBER PPI
🔸 Headline PPI MoM: +1.3% (Est. +0.6%)
🔸 Headline PPI YoY: +6.3% (Est. +5.4%)
🔸 Core PPI MoM: +0.7% (Est. +0.3%)
🔸 Core PPI YoY: +5.0% (Est. +4.4%)
🔸 PPI Ex-Food, Energy & Trade: +0.5% MoM, +5.0% YoY
🔸 Energy Prices: +10.8%
🔸 Food Prices: +1.2%
🔸 Goods Prices: +2.6%
🔸 Services Prices: +0.8%
🔸 Trade Services: +1.4%
CONSUMER SPENDING — SEPTEMBER
🔸 Retail Sales: +0.8% MoM (Est. +0.3%)
🔸 Retail Sales Ex-Autos: +0.9% (Est. +0.5%)
🔸 Retail Sales Ex-Autos & Gas: +0.2%
🔸 Retail Sales Control Group: +0.1%
🔸 August Retail Sales: Revised to +1.1%
🔸 August Ex-Autos: Revised to +1.3%
🔸 August Control Group: +1.2%
LABOR MARKET
🔸 Initial Jobless Claims: 199K (Est. 200K; Prior 198K, revised from 197K)
🔸 Continuing Claims: 1.710M (Prior 1.714M, revised from 1.716M)
MANUFACTURING — OCTOBER
🔸 NY Empire State Index: 25.5 (Prior 7.6)
🔸 NY Prices Paid: 59.5 (Prior 63.1)
🔸 NY New Orders: 23.2 (Prior 2.0)
🔸 NY Employment: 10.3 (Prior 10.6)
🔸 Philadelphia Fed Index: 20.9 (Est. 28.0)
🔸 Philadelphia Prices Paid: 43.2 (Prior 48.6)
THE KEY TAKEAWAY: Producer inflation significantly exceeded expectations, consumer spending remained strong, and jobless claims stayed low — reinforcing concerns that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy further.
$IREN update, I've bought more Jan'29 $90c yesterday, now I'm watching +-$26 as another level. I've sold 20% of my $AMD position, 10% of $TSLA and 6% of $PLTR. On top of that I've closed $SKHY, $ASTS and $ENPH. To fund further investment in LEAPS. Might be for Jan'28 too, exit -$49.
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Today I will be educating you with some construction progress at $IREN sites in Texas.
Additionally, I will try to explain why the current strategy is the optimal one, and attempt to clarify some misunderstandings around the company and its trajectory.
Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
$IREN both internal & external structure are still bullish... but we need to hold $35 swing low
Things will get dicey if that level breaks
Fingers crossed for the bulls 🤞
