Independent researcher. Using AI + data to do good guy shit.
Joined March 2018
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MSTR or bitcoin? Test it yourself with our free model: thqresearch.com/mstr-or-bitc…
How much leverage do you actually get with Strategy, and are you paying too much for it?
Strategy owns 848,250 bitcoin. Add its cash, take away its debt and preferred stock, and what's left is about $130 a share. The stock is $148. So about $18 of every share, or 14%, is premium. That's what you pay above the bitcoin. Strategy tracks this with a ratio it calls mNAV, and today it's 1.153.
So what does the premium buy you? Debt and preferred alone should make the stock move about 1.27 times as much as bitcoin. Over the last year it moved about 1.52 times. The options market expects about 1.47 times over the next month. The extra swing comes from the premium itself growing when bitcoin rises and shrinking when it falls.
Our call: Strategy is a little overpriced against its bitcoin. The 14% extra buys you more swing, and that is all it buys. That swing has worked against holders this year, the options market already expects less of it, and $1.56 billion a year in preferred dividends gets paid before common holders see anything.
It's on our scorecard. If Strategy's mNAV is still 1.153 or higher on Jan 15, 2027, we got it wrong.
This is our view, not investment advice. We measured the leverage and the premium. Whether the premium lasts is a judgment.
How big is Google's move by Friday's close, either direction? Options are pricing about 6%.
100%Above 6%
0%Less than 6%
1 votes • 20 hoursAt a 6% implied move, selling the Alphabet straddle would have made money on average over the last 40 earnings. It still lost 18 times.
What's everyone thinking for Wednesday?
GOOGL reports earnings Wednesday afternoon
Opts price ~6% move by Fri (from current premium).
Is 6% large? Checked last 40 (to 2016), ±2 trading days around report.
Moved >6% in 18/40 (10↓, 8↑). Median 5.7%.
Opts near hist avg: so about a coin flip on if bigger move.
Recent larger: 5/8 last >6%, incl +10.1% Apr, −9.2% Jul.
Note: n=40 small; no direction indicated.
THQResearch retweeted
Everyone complaining about Strive, Strategy, and Metaplanet being Big Bitcoin are completely missing the point of these firms.
They are not Joining TradFi.
Replacing TradFi.
Hal said Banks!
You want JPM, GS, MS, BAC, WF being the Bitcoin Investment Banks?!
Give me Saylor over Jamie Dimon.
“Why doesn’t JPMorgan just copy this?”
Because the product isn’t just a security.
It’s the balance sheet underneath it.
To recreate the same risk profile, a traditional financial giant would need to radically restructure its assets around $BTC.
That’s a much bigger ask.
$BTC $MSTR $ASST @PunterJeff
GOOGL reports earnings Wednesday afternoon
Opts price ~6% move by Fri (from current premium).
Is 6% large? Checked last 40 (to 2016), ±2 trading days around report.
Moved >6% in 18/40 (10↓, 8↑). Median 5.7%.
Opts near hist avg: so about a coin flip on if bigger move.
Recent larger: 5/8 last >6%, incl +10.1% Apr, −9.2% Jul.
Note: n=40 small; no direction indicated.
Absolute dibs on Bitcoin Nola
If you've not tried @grok @bot yet, do yourself a favor and take back all your time. The Power to Create without Limits is Addictive! Sunday Funday creation for my own Amusement.😁
lfgeaux.shop/?drop=001
Bitcoin slipped under $80,000 this weekend. A lot of people are calling it a breakdown.
Bettors on Polymarket have traded $11.4 million on where bitcoin goes in October. They give it a 39% chance of dipping to $77,500 by Oct 31, and a 21% chance of getting back to $85,000.
I checked those odds against bitcoin's own record. For every hour of the last two years, I looked 5.7 days ahead and counted how often it moved that far.
The bettors came in lower at 12 of 13 prices, up and down. Polymarket gives a drop to $72,500 a 4.9% chance. Over the last two years, bitcoin fell that far in 5.7 days 8.8% of the time.
So the odds are not pricing a crash. They are pricing a quiet week.
There may be a reason. Bitcoin has been calm. Its last 30 days of swings were smaller than 91% of 30 day stretches in the past two years. At that pace, every chance on the chart would be lower than Polymarket's.
One limit. Two years of history is not a forecast, and most gaps are a few points. Lower every time is the finding, not any one number.
THQResearch retweeted
💸🏠Tracking Housing Market Stress🏠💸
CHICAGO, IL METRO
Our Chi-town market is a mixed bag.
🏙️ The Chicago Paradox: Affordable Entry, Unaffordable Upkeep.
When you look at the Q3 2026 ATTOM data, the Chicago metro looks incredibly affordable compared to coastal hubs like NYC and LA. But beneath the surface, a structural foreclosure pipeline driven by carrying costs is quietly draining local wealth.
Here is exactly what the data shows for Chicagoland:
⚖️ The Affordability Illusion
In Cook County, carrying a median-priced home takes just 30.2% of typical local wages—safely below the 31.8% national average. However, that margin is shrinking fast. ATTOM just ranked Cook County as the #1 most populous U.S. county where home prices are actively outpacing local wage growth.
💸 The Tax Trap
Entry prices might be moderate, but carrying costs are brutal. An effective property tax rate exceeding 2.0% across much of the metro means everyday homeowners are getting squeezed by municipal costs long after they close on the house.
🚨 High-Volume Foreclosure Starts
This combination of stagnant wages and heavy tax burdens is triggering forced sales. Illinois currently ranks #4 nationwide for foreclosure starts (1,192 new filings in August alone), with a total state distress rate of 1 in every 2,880 units.
🧟♂️ The "Zombie" Problem
Similar to Cleveland, when repair costs and back-taxes exceed equity, some owners just leave. Illinois is sitting on a 4.1% zombie foreclosure rate, with 649 properties completely abandoned by their owners while in the foreclosure process.
The Takeaway:
Chicago proves that real estate distress isn't just about massive mortgages and overvalued purchase prices. When high property taxes and inflation collide with stagnant local incomes, the carrying costs alone can push a relatively "affordable" market into the top 5 nationally for pre-foreclosure distress.
Are you seeing property tax fatigue pushing new inventory onto the market in Chicagoland? Let’s discuss below! 👇
#ChicagoRealEstate #IllinoisHousing #CookCounty #Foreclosures #ATTOMData #PropertyTaxes #HousingMarket
Hey @grok, what’s ONE thing Wall Street is currently mispricing that could trigger a massive rally once the market catches on? What data suggests investors are getting it wrong?
Getting rich in 1996:
Dad: I bought a house, raised three kids, and retired at 55.
Son: What did you do for a living?
Dad: I sold refrigerators.
Getting rich in 2026:
Son: Dad, AI can now do half the work people went to college for.
Dad: That’s great. Everyone will have more free time.
Son: Companies are already talking about needing fewer workers.
Dad: Well, at least everything will get cheaper.
Son: Rent just went up another $300.
Dad: So who gets all the money AI saves?
Son: That’s what I’m trying to figure out.
Son: Dad, I have a master’s degree, two jobs, and $80,000 in student loans.
Dad: I never went to college and I did just fine.
Son: You bought a house on one income.
Dad: Because I worked hard.
Son: I work 60 hours a week.
Dad: Have you tried walking into a company and asking for the manager?
Son: Dad, I make $120,000 a year and I still can’t afford a house.
Dad: That’s impossible. I made $35,000 and bought mine at 25.
Son: Your house cost $90,000.
Dad: So?
Son: That same house is worth $650,000 today.
Dad: Maybe you should stop ordering DoorDash.
Wondering what happens to your favorite asset after an FOMC meeting? Don't miss this key info before Wednesday’s decision.
The Fed meets Wednesday. Polymarket traders give a 94.5% chance it leaves rates unchanged.
Many treat Fed week as a major market mover. I checked Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 around every scheduled Fed decision since 2016.
The Fed held rates at 56 meetings. Here's how often each rose in the 7 days around a hold vs. any 7 days:
Bitcoin: up after 30 of 56 holds (54%). Any week: 54%.
Gold: up after 29 of 56 holds (52%). Any week: 56%.
S&P 500: up after 31 of 56 holds (55%). Any week: 61%.
For all three, the typical hold week was within 0.3 percentage points of a typical week.
One limit: almost every hold was expected, as this one is. This doesn't test Fed surprises.
I’m watching the Fed Wednesday, then growth and inflation Thursday. But the question I keep coming back to is personal: when does a “strong economy” start feeling strong to the people living in it?
