Econ PhD @DukeEcon, occasional songwriter, amateur historian, and former @clevelandfed RA. Views always my own.
Durham, NC
Joined September 2019
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First working paper is finally out!
Yes, it’s another paper adding to the endless number of survey-based RCTs in macro, but ours has a few interesting quirks. A brief thread:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: federalreserve.gov/newsevent…
New from me (and others): variation in the political composition of survey samples can explain some of the disagreement between their measures of consumers’ inflation expectations! clevelandfed.org/publication…
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
Yes.
Writing is not a second thing that happens after thinking. The act of writing is an act of thinking. Writing *is* thinking.
Students, academics, and anyone else who outsources their writing to LLMs will find their screens full of words and their minds emptied of thought.
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
BREAKING: MIT just completed the first brain scan study of ChatGPT users & the results are terrifying.
Turns out, AI isn't making us more productive. It's making us cognitively bankrupt.
Here's what 4 months of data revealed:
(hint: we've been measuring productivity all wrong)
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
.@mewithoutYou deserve recognition as one of the 21st century's greatest rock bands, and the underrated 'Pale Horses' — released 10 years ago today — is a big reason why stereogum.com/2311888/mewith…
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
In rhetoric, this administration is only deporting "criminals", in reality, they are gleeful for the chance to go after people who came to the US as a baby and have done nothing but contribute positively to the only home they've known for decades. Fundamentally anti-American.
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
I’m always impressed with “Conservatives” who love to talk about the government and officials violating their Constitutional Rights, but when its done against people on the other side or to further ideals that they support it’s totally okay.
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
NEW from me @thedispatch.
“Farm country voted overwhelmingly to unleash a new trade war. And now these same farmers want taxpayers to finance another round of bailouts to protect them from the consequences of their own votes.” Hell no.
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
My dear old pal Greg Daniels just sent me this. Amazing how one photo can say it all!
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
Together in Kyiv at the meeting of the Coalition of the Willing — five of us in person, joined online by leaders from over 30 countries, the EU, and NATO — we discussed what is urgently needed to achieve peace.
The key outcome: a united and clear position on the following points.
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
One of the worst laws ever signed by a president. Prior to this, >100,000 European Jews came to the US annually. Many millions would have come but for this monstrosity, to say nothing of the millions of others who would’ve escaped before being consumed by war & dictatorship.
Calvin Coolidge signed into law the Immigration Restriction Act just over 100 years ago, stating flatly ‘America must remain American.’
Among other things, it introduced visa requirements, the border patrol, and the legal category of the ‘illegal alien.’
The law dramatically reduced the number of people coming into the country, and provided a breathing space for a diverse population to coalesce. By the 1950s, an American society existed, with all the Poles, Germans, Jews, Italians and so on more or less integrated into the Anglo-American culture.
It can be done again.
new (short and sweet) working paper just dropped
In a new working paper, Cleveland Fed economists explore the question: are revisions to state-level #GDP data in the US well behaved? Their findings say no, see their explanation: clefed.org/3RwoEsq
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
In a new working paper, Cleveland Fed economists explore the question: are revisions to state-level #GDP data in the US well behaved? Their findings say no, see their explanation: clefed.org/3RwoEsq
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
If you're interested in heterogeneous-agent models in asset pricing, you might find this article particularly relevant! The replication codes are available, making it easy to explore the results in detail.
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
I can confirm I've replicated the CEA calculation for the so-called "tariffs charged to the USA" on these charts.
It is the Census FT900 trade data, exhibit 4, for year 2024, and the formula is MAX(10%,(imports-exports)/imports) per-country on a customs basis.
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
Once again, for those in the back, the way to determine whether someone actually violated the law is through due process.
Taylor Shiroff retweeted
🤣 NYT: Biden's administration was furious and panicked when Ukrainians sank Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/…
