Telemachus

You sent me down a rabbit hole only to find that @CirclesOffHQ apparently deleted their episode with him (#129) and their tweet promoting it. I need to know more.

@robpizzola recently mentioned pros were struggling to win at cbb this year. Let's take a look at market efficiency for Totals. Here's the avg absolute mean error for both the opener (top) and close (bottom) by year. If my numbers are right*, the market opener this year is *significantly* more accurate than the close from all recent years. 👀 * These numbers exclude some games where I don't generate predictions * Someone double-check my numbers, please.

Good stuff, as always. Also...

Apologies. It appears it is 50c lines now. Yes, these are overnights. But, if it was like it was this morning, they'll be 45c lines then.

I'd like to, but, uh, 45c lines?

I don't know... I think it makes perfect sense that golf tournament matchups live under the menu item "Parlay Cards"...

Also from the same thread:

Had to get a state regulator involved recently to convince a book to let me withdraw money from *my* account. When it was finally taken care of, I decided I'd take the risk of asking if the regulator had a stance on sportsbooks limiting winners. The response:

Here's one of the more disingenuous things I've seen before. "We need to know your source of funds to help prevent problem gaming... UNLESS, OF COURSE, YOU WANT TO DEPOSIT MORE MONEY" You're not supposed to say the quiet part out loud, @SiSportsbook.

📊 Monday Morning Recap 📈 Vacation last week so this covers previous week. - .19 Units 2-1 After adjusting for unit inflation, since the beginning (1/29/22), we're now: +98.84 Units (473-348-5) Should have a thread out on future plans soon.

But, Why? A good network can: - Get you answers to hard questions. - Help you solidify an angle. - Get you access to weak books you're limited at. - Help you profit off your weak book outs without an angle. - Get more money down on your model plays. Nice. But, How? 3/x

Okay @robpizzola, I officially change my answer to your podcast question. I think my CLV has moved into the "self-created" territory. Here's the @UnabatedSports Line when the pick went up at 3:20 EST.

📊 Monday Morning Recap 📈 Last week: +2.40 Units 7-4 After adjusting for unit inflation, since the beginning (1/29/22), we're now: + 99.03 Units (471-347-5) All tracked on @betstamp here: betstamp.app/u/Telemachus

📊 Monday Morning Recap 📈 Past week: + 10.85 Units (26-16) After adjusting for unit inflation, since the beginning (1/29/22), we're now: + 96.63 Units (464-343-5) All tracked on @betstamp here: betstamp.app/u/Telemachus

📈 Monday Recap 📊 First losing week since model inception. -5.73 Units Oddly, I think the best CLV week we've had as well: +3.1% CLV Thoughts ⤵️

As you can imagine, @croucherJD, this is infuriating. Now, this is a cbb total for a game that is happening tomorrow. But, your competition will gladly take the bet (and this is true of most other US regulated sportsbooks that I bet at). 5/x

Okay, that's annoying. But the line didn't move. Let's give it a bit and see if you'll take the rest of my bet. Summary of the gif: 1. Bet gets referred immediately. 2. Bet spins for 10 seconds. 3. Bet is rejected by admin. 4. Line gets taken down! 4/x