Fat bets, fatter profits - professional sports bettor. 15 years in PE

Virage Auteuil
Joined September 2018
To make $60k/yr ($5k/mo) on @Polymarket's new referral program, your referrals must trade $2.8M/mo. ~50% of new users trade <$100 in month 1 & 75% trade <$1k. You need 390 new active traders/mo for a year. Only 1 in 16 sign-ups trades = 6,100 sign-ups/mo. Yeah, Nobody is getting rich with this. Financial DDoS 🤣
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Polymarket top traders lost >$12.6M betting on Bolsonaro to win the Brazilian presidential election at 82% odds. why did they get it so wrong ? Because they convinced themselves that they knew better than polls 📅 October 4 - Bolsonaro upset in the 1st round The first-round results drop : Bolsonaro: 47.03% Lula: 45.16% Bolsonaro overperforms the previous polls by+5 points. Polymarket traders are gain confidence that the polls overestimate Lula. Polymarket odds : Bolsonaro: 84%, Lula: 16% 📅 October 23 - Traders ignore the contradictory polls Datafolha's new poll drom for final round shows a statistical tie: - Bolsonaro: 50% - Lula: 50% Yet Polymarket barely reacts. Traders are confident in that the polls again underestimate Bolsonaro. 📅 October 25 - Election day : the polls were right Bolsonaro enters election day as the overwhelming favorite. Polymarket odds at 2:45 PM: Bolsonaro: 82%, Lula: 19% But then we got the final election result: - Lula: 51.79% - Bolsonaro: 48.21% Turns out Datafolha's poll showing 50-50 results was actually underestimating Lula. That's why you must always stay flexible in Prediction Markets.
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FatMbappe retweeted
The real question: is W. Legate actually loyal to anyone? > Become a Thiel Fellow > Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump > Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder > Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi > Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket > Pump shady influencer campaigns for growth > Go full Republican retweeting racist posts Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats. Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop? What side are you on? | EP. 5
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The real question: is W. Legate actually loyal to anyone? > Become a Thiel Fellow > Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump > Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder > Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi > Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket > Pump shady influencer campaigns for growth > Go full Republican retweeting racist posts Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats. Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop? What side are you on? | EP. 5
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FatMbappe retweeted
Firing your high school best friend hits different. 🔪 Shayne cutting Matthew loose had to be emotional, but look closer at the Growth team. LeGate was brought in by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. Did he ever actually work for Matt, or was Matt just a convenient frontman like JD Vance for Peter? Let’s unpack this. Episode 4
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Firing your high school best friend hits different. 🔪 Shayne cutting Matthew loose had to be emotional, but look closer at the Growth team. LeGate was brought in by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. Did he ever actually work for Matt, or was Matt just a convenient frontman like JD Vance for Peter? Let’s unpack this. Episode 4
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FatMbappe retweeted
William LeGate is next to go at Polymarket. He is (was) Modabber's direct report and his right-hand man. The former #Resistance Democrat influencer who co-founded "Good Pillow" with David Hogg to troll Mike Lindell. He also worked at Kalshi, btw, for a brief second. LeGate has been the guy recruiting affiliate managers and handing out or revoking Polymarket X badges. In the last 60 days: - Senators Schiff and Curtis went to the CFTC over Polymarket’s influencer promos, and AlixPartners was brought in to monitor partner content. - LeGate already reposted a badged affiliate's racist post in November (forcing the General Counsel to apologize publicly) and got flagged by ZachXBT in May for replies that boosted a wallet drainer. Modabber getting forced out by the board proved closeness to Shayne won't save you anymore.
🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES ! Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him. Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to promote the site. WSJ investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign. It found: - $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real. - 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings. - Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all. - > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account. - anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing. - he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades This is a BIG blow for Shayne ! Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket. Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone. And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses. His position has never been weaker. It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
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FatMbappe retweeted
Big elections ahead: Israel, BC, Bulgaria, Serbia, and the midterms. Track the best odds and earn passive yield on your account using Polyguana.
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William LeGate is next to go at Polymarket. He is (was) Modabber's direct report and his right-hand man. The former #Resistance Democrat influencer who co-founded "Good Pillow" with David Hogg to troll Mike Lindell. He also worked at Kalshi, btw, for a brief second. LeGate has been the guy recruiting affiliate managers and handing out or revoking Polymarket X badges. In the last 60 days: - Senators Schiff and Curtis went to the CFTC over Polymarket’s influencer promos, and AlixPartners was brought in to monitor partner content. - LeGate already reposted a badged affiliate's racist post in November (forcing the General Counsel to apologize publicly) and got flagged by ZachXBT in May for replies that boosted a wallet drainer. Modabber getting forced out by the board proved closeness to Shayne won't save you anymore.
🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES ! Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him. Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to promote the site. WSJ investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign. It found: - $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real. - 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings. - Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all. - > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account. - anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing. - he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades This is a BIG blow for Shayne ! Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket. Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone. And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses. His position has never been weaker. It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
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🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES ! Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him. Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to promote the site. WSJ investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign. It found: - $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real. - 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings. - Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all. - > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account. - anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing. - he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades This is a BIG blow for Shayne ! Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket. Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone. And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses. His position has never been weaker. It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
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FatMbappe retweeted
Kalshi tribe deal with @mansourtarek_ This is how it played out:
Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief ! They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market. but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR. Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships. They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe. Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief. the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying : - His leadership NEVER approved the deal. - He only discovered it through a CNN report. - The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe. Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions. Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute : > The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief. > The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief. Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes. Well deserved.
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FatMbappe retweeted
Claude Fable 5.5? Grok? What’s the real story with Mythos? 🤔 You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race? Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana. The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.
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FatMbappe retweeted
we're partnering with one of the biggest companies to bring @sharexyz to the US market. more on that soon!
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Kalshi tribe deal with @mansourtarek_ This is how it played out:
Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief ! They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market. but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR. Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships. They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe. Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief. the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying : - His leadership NEVER approved the deal. - He only discovered it through a CNN report. - The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe. Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions. Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute : > The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief. > The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief. Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes. Well deserved.
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FatMbappe retweeted
You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎 Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in. Watch the video, and learn more at polyguana.net/info/smart-ord…
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FatMbappe retweeted
Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth! Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense. We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece. Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together. After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception. But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else. It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal. Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him. Enough of this stupid FUD. The end.
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Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief ! They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market. but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR. Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships. They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe. Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief. the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying : - His leadership NEVER approved the deal. - He only discovered it through a CNN report. - The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe. Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions. Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute : > The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief. > The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief. Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes. Well deserved.
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Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth! Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense. We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece. Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together. After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception. But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else. It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal. Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him. Enough of this stupid FUD. The end.
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@hosseeb is the video accurate?
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Founders Fund actually made sure Shayne can't be fired, according to Bloomberg. Best ad for founders to take money from FF.
Spent 30 minutes in line at Dominique Ansel Bakery in Soho today, running a little Polymarket CEO experiment in my head. If Shayne is really out in the next couple of months. Who is gonna run Polymarket? Why should he be out, you say? The setup is pure cinema: -- Polymarket is now far behind Kalshi, with outages, angry customers, lawsuits, and a fresh CFTC investigation. -- The NFA reportedly threatened to drop them as a client over record-keeping -- Raising at a $21B valuation while weighing an IPO against a token. Best case, Shayne goes exec chair and hands an operator the keys. If I had a board seat, here's who I'd call: 1) @AsiffHirji - Already did this exact job: Coinbase president/COO, scaled it past $1B in revenue. - Ameritrade and HP restructuring on the résumé. - Catch: never the top CEO, no CFTC reps. 2) Heath Tarbert. - Ex-CFTC chair, ex-Citadel Securities CLO, now Circle president (aka the USDC guy). - Best answer to the regulator problem. - Catch: not a product operator, and Circle's CFO is leaving at year-end, so good luck prying him loose. 3) Chris Concannon - Took Bats public, sold it to Cboe. - Runs MarketAxess, which ICE agreed to buy. Basically ICE's dream pick. - Catch: zero crypto If it ever happened: • Hirji = Polymarket grows up without losing the plot • Tarbert = the CFTC problem gets a lot quieter • Concannon = welcome to the ICE Cinematic Universe Soho bakery lines remain undefeated.
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