Polyguana retweeted
Will there be a new frontier AI model this month?
Claude Fable 5.5 or GPT Terra?
Grok 4.8 - maybe?
Best odds on the AI Race from
@Kalshi @Polymarket @trylimitless and @HyperliquidX
Just $POLY
Points distribution #2 went out today
10000 Points + referral rewards distributed
Come join the fun: polyguana.net/points
Polyguana retweeted
Surprised by the turn of events in Brazil?
You wouldn’t be if you were watching the odds on Polyguana.
Polyguana aggregates real-time quotes from Hyperliquid, Polymarket, Limitless, and Kalshi, giving you the fastest signals and the best fills in the market.
Trade politics, elections, and global outcomes while earning constant passive yield on your capital + outpace inflation by stacking PolyPoints.
Just $POLY. 🦎📈
Surprised by the turn of events in Brazil?
You wouldn’t be if you were watching the odds on Polyguana.
Polyguana aggregates real-time quotes from Hyperliquid, Polymarket, Limitless, and Kalshi, giving you the fastest signals and the best fills in the market.
Trade politics, elections, and global outcomes while earning constant passive yield on your capital + outpace inflation by stacking PolyPoints.
Just $POLY. 🦎📈
Polyguana retweeted
We show who is on the other side of a Polymarket trade. Polyguana places it, from one balance across Polymarket, Hyperliquid and Limitless. Same team as PM Wisdom.
Just joined Polyguana to start earning $POLY.
Polyguana code: WSG6NZ xitter.cf/polyguana/status/21086…
Will there be a new frontier AI model this month?
Claude Fable 5.5 or GPT Terra?
Grok 4.8 - maybe?
Best odds on the AI Race from
@Kalshi @Polymarket @trylimitless and @HyperliquidX
Just $POLY
Remember the Most Hedged Couple in the US?
Midterms, Best Quotes, Just $POLY
Polyguana retweeted
Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big.
At best it's a niche product.
Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more of the volume.
No group reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.
Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.
The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.
And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.
So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.
The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.
Full case study in comments
Polyguana retweeted
The real question: is W. Legate actually loyal to anyone?
> Become a Thiel Fellow
> Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump
> Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder
> Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi
> Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket
> Pump shady influencer campaigns for growth
> Go full Republican retweeting racist posts
Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats.
Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop?
What side are you on? | EP. 5
Traders put the next GPT Terra release by November 30 at 83%.
Our AI page tracks upcoming model releases alongside the LMArena leaderboard and markets on who finishes first.
See who leads now, what’s expected to ship next and how the odds change:
polyguana.net/predictions/ai…
Big elections ahead: Israel, BC, Bulgaria, Serbia, and the midterms.
Track the best odds and earn passive yield on your account using Polyguana.
Polyguana retweeted
Claude Fable 5.5? Grok? What’s the real story with Mythos? 🤔
You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race?
Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana.
The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.
Polyguana retweeted
🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES !
Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.
Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to promote the site.
WSJ investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.
It found:
- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning
Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own
But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.
- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.
- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.
- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades
This is a BIG blow for Shayne !
Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.
Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.
And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.
His position has never been weaker.
It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
Claude Fable 5.5? Grok? What’s the real story with Mythos? 🤔
You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race?
Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana.
The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.
Polyguana retweeted
Looking for work in prediction markets? Look beyond Polymarket and Kalshi.
Our jobs board lists 250 openings across 37 companies. Those two account for 98 roles—the other 152 are spread across 35 employers.
Browse the openings:
pmwisdom.com/jobs
Polyguana retweeted
You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and learn more at polyguana.net/info/smart-ord…
You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and learn more at polyguana.net/info/smart-ord…












