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Interesting - Global M2 impulse vs Gold returns (2009-)
Debunking the Debasement?
2
4
1,107
Manav Sharma retweeted
The best entry on Petrov is in encyclopedia Brittanica which says, “He is survived by his two children, two grandchildren and the entire human race.”
Manav Sharma retweeted
Why the USA will never be a football superpower.
Pay to play.
In England, from 10 to 16 I payed junior football. The teams were mostly started by a parent who wanted, for free, to give kids a team to play in. Those teams then joined FA sanctioned leagues ( Lichfield league, Walsall league in my case). Subs were about 50p a game ( subs are a fee for admin, pitch hire, referee).
The model in England hasn't changed much, save for the fact there's fewer teams and fewer leagues. But the cheap to play model, meaning the poor and rich can play equally, holds.
I'm staying with one of my best mates in Miami. Had a late night conversation 2 nights ago. 2 kids that play football.
$4000 per season, per child to play for a team.
Why?
US junior leagues are private enterprises (shock). The US equivalent of the Football Association offers no grassroots football, no level 1 to 3 cheap badges for Moms or Dads to take so they can coach the basics, no structure locally or nationally of organised leagues, just profiteers who start up a league, charge a fortune, and if you're a poor Messi-esque talent from the wrong part of Miami, sure you can buy a ball and play on a patch of grass, but forget organised football, you can't afford it.
So imagine, in a nation of 350 million, how many kids they're missing out on and will continue to after this successful World Cup for them.
Money, greed, pay to play.
99.9% of greats to play the game wouldn't have made it in America. Because they couldn't afford $4000 ( plus) to play. In subs my Mom probably paid £200 total over 6 or 7 years of junior football.
America, it's not all about money you know, it's about opportunity for all too. And you're pricing generation after generation out of the chance to be a part of this incredible sport you've seen first hand.
To the US Federation. Do fucking better. Organise local and national junior leagues, van profiteering, offer cheap coaching badges for parents who want to give their time for free to America's kids.
Football. Accessible to all.
Manav Sharma retweeted
A young woman named MacKenzie Tuttle graduated from Princeton in 1992 with a degree in English. One of her professors was Toni Morrison, who later described her as one of the finest creative writing students she had ever taught.
After graduation, MacKenzie took a job at the New York investment firm D. E. Shaw. There she met a colleague named Jeff Bezos, who had an ambitious idea: selling books on the internet.
She didn’t laugh at the idea.
They married in 1993, and the following year drove across the country to the Seattle area to build what would become Amazon.
In the beginning, there was no global empire.
There was a garage.
MacKenzie handled accounting, wrote business materials, answered customer emails and phone calls, and packed orders alongside Jeff. Like many startups, everyone did whatever needed to be done.
As Amazon grew, MacKenzie stepped away from day-to-day operations to raise their four children while continuing to pursue her own passion for writing.
Her debut novel, The Testing of Luther Albright, won the American Book Award. She later published a second novel and quietly built a respected literary career.
Meanwhile, the story of Amazon became one of the most famous business stories ever told.
Jeff Bezos became one of the world’s most recognizable entrepreneurs.
MacKenzie’s role was rarely part of the public narrative.
She never seemed interested in changing that.
What many people don’t know is that she also knew financial hardship.
Her family filed for bankruptcy while she was still a student, and she has spoken about the kindness of people who helped her through difficult times—acts of generosity she never forgot.
In 2019, after her divorce, MacKenzie Scott received approximately 4% of Amazon’s shares.
Almost immediately, she made a decision that surprised the world.
She signed the Giving Pledge, promising to donate the majority of her wealth during her lifetime.
Then she did something even more unusual.
Instead of building a massive public foundation or attaching her name to buildings, she began giving away billions of dollars through large, unrestricted grants.
Universities.
Food banks.
Housing organizations.
Rural communities.
Women’s health initiatives.
Tribal colleges.
Climate organizations.
Small nonprofits that had never imagined receiving gifts of that size.
Many recipients reportedly thought the phone calls were scams.
They weren’t.
Since 2019, MacKenzie Scott has donated tens of billions of dollars to thousands of organizations, making her one of the most significant philanthropists of the modern era.
Despite giving away enormous sums, her fortune has remained substantial because of Amazon’s continued growth.
The woman who once packed Amazon’s first orders is now helping fund opportunities for millions of people she will probably never meet.
She never asked for buildings in her name.
She never demanded headlines.
Sometimes the greatest legacy isn’t the company you help build.
It’s what you choose to do with the success that follows.
Manav Sharma retweeted
A robust backtest is not designed to optimize every trade and period.
It is designed to test whether a defined set of rules could have produced acceptable results over time, across many trades, markets, and environments.
That is very different from trying to optimize the outcome of each individual trade.
Some trades may build large open profits and then give most, or even all, of them back before the trailing exit is reached.
That is one of the hardest parts of Trend Following.
The natural reaction is to change the rules to attempt to improve uncomfortable trades and lock in profits that are rightfully yours.
Exit earlier. Add a filter. Run a new backtest. Try to keep the long-term benefits while removing the painful individual outcomes.
But that can become a trap.
The more we try to prevent discomfort on each trade, the more we risk weakening the discipline that made the overall process testable in the first place.
Trend Following requires accepting that individual trades can be uncomfortable, imperfect, and unpredictable.
The objective is not to make every trade look good.
The objective is to follow a consistent, risk-managed process across many trades, knowing that the edge, if it exists, is expected to show up at the portfolio level over time.
Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. This is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Manav Sharma retweeted
OK, there were two potentially rational strategies (with proponents of both in violent disagreement)
1) Don’t start a war at all
2) Start and continue a war until you clearly win
I’m not arguing for either here.
But starting a war, reducing a cancer but not killing it always being the worst idea possible, and then stopping by doing your best Obama-deal imitation, seems to be the worst possible strategy. If Dr. Strange went through millions of scenarios he’d say “this is the only one we lose in.”
Oh, and while the agreement is to stop fighting, there is nothing close to an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program which, uh, WAS THE WHOLE FREAKING POINT. Trump actually says something like “they don’t even want a nuclear weapon anymore.” If anyone believes that they aren’t merely dumb they are “call the Guinness people (the world record ones not the brown ale ones though they might be useful too) we have found the dumbest person” dumb. Trump doesn’t believe that. Yes the Iranian terrorists wouldn’t take a nuke if we built it for them now. Right.
Why is this happening? Hard to be precise.
Doing this to appease the woke right whose ire you underestimated is just disgusting cowardice.
Doing it to drive oil prices down before the midterms is grossly incompetent as you really didn’t know oil prices would soar? Really? Nobody in war planning knew that? That’s new information to you? And if you care about the midterms so much why’d you endorse the disgusting “disqualified in any rational world” (yes, along with Platner) Paxton in Texas putting it play?
None of this makes any sense at all. Horrible. Just horrible.
Manav Sharma retweeted
Americans think winning at life is optimising the amount of time they can spend as wage slaves to buy crap from China including a phone they can use to say mean things about Europoors whilst on their 2 days of annual vacation.
Also do they not have delivery?
Replying to @alisha_hg
Thats a horribly inefficient waste of time. You probably end up spending close to 5 hours just in grocery stores every week if you do this (nevermind the extra hours spent walking there and back as well), when you add up shopping+waiting in line. I'd rather just do 2-3 weeks worth of shopping at once in <2hours, drive my groceries right to my front door, and then not have to go to a store again for a few weeks
There's a reason no one who gets a license ever uses public transit or walks anywhere ever again if they dont have to - its way worse in every way.
Society should be more accommodating to cars, not less. Bike lanes for example, should be illegal
Manav Sharma retweeted
Much love to Alex Pretti and Renee Good—but remember—ICE has killed 9 people in 2026. You know the names of the 2 white people they've killed.
ICE has also killed a Black man named Keith Porter, a Cambodian named Parady La, and five Latinos named Heber Sanchaz Domínguez, Victor Manuel Diaz, Luis Beltran Yanez-Cruz, Luis Gustavo Nunez Caceres, and Geraldo Lunas Campos.
ICE is on pace to kill more than 100 people this year. Abolish ICE. Impeach Noem. Prosecute those who committed these crimes.
Manav Sharma retweeted
Ladies and gentlemen, your stalwart defenders of the Second Amendment.
“For months, radical progressive politicians like Tim Walz have incited violence against law enforcement officers who are simply trying to do their jobs. Unsurprisingly, these calls to dangerously interject oneself into legitimate law-enforcement activities have ended in violence, tragically resulting in injuries and fatalities.
As there is with any officer-involved shooting, there will be a robust and comprehensive investigation that takes place to determine if the use of force was justified. As we await these facts and gain a clearer understanding, we urge the political voices to lower the temperature to ensure their constituents and law enforcement officers stay safe.”
- @NRA
Manav Sharma retweeted
You can put on the gimp suit and prostitute yourself to this WH all you like, Bill, but it's still not gonna get you the FNMA outcome you want.
Jesus, what an embarrassment you've become.
What is it about Minneapolis that the two tragic ICE shootings took place there within two or so weeks of each other? Could it really be a coincidence?
It is almost as if the governor of Minnesota called for protestors to intervene in ICE enforcements in an incendiary manner?
Inciting the people to rise up against law enforcement is guaranteed to end badly, and now we have seen the tragic consequences.
@GovTimWalz and those that emulate him, it is time to take the temperature down before more lives are lost.
Manav Sharma retweeted
ICE agent in Portland, Maine tells legal observer she is a domestic terrorist for peacefully recording him, adds her to "nice little database"
Manav Sharma retweeted
So this is where we are. So-called conservatives and 2A supporters asking what’s your reason for lawfully carrying a gun.
Manav Sharma retweeted
The part you missed, Bill (@FoxNews) — DHS law enforcement officers had already disarmed the suspect when they fired "defensive shots," killing the man. They then fired several shots at his lifeless body.
📺 The officer is seen removing a weapon from the victim's rear waistband
BREAKING: DHS statement to @FoxNews re: the Border Patrol shooting of an armed subject in Minneapolis today:
“At 9:05 AM CT, as DHS law enforcement officers were conducting a targeted operation in Minneapolis against an illegal alien wanted for violent assault, an individual approached US Border Patrol officers with a 9 mm semi-automatic handgun, seen here.
The officers attempted to disarm the suspect but the armed suspect violently resisted. More details on the armed struggle are forthcoming.
Fearing for his life and the lives and safety of fellow officers, an agent fired defensive shots. Medics on scene immediately delivered medical aid to the subject but was pronounced dead at the scene.
The suspect also had 2 magazines and no ID—this looks like a situation where an individual wanted to do maximum damage and massacre law enforcement.
About 200 rioters arrived at the scene and began to obstruct and assault law enforcement on the scene, crowd control measures were deployed for the safety of the public and law enforcement.
This situation is evolving, and more information is forthcoming.”





































