Not financial/legal advice. Not affiliated with @kalshi (or anyone). RTs are not endorsements. Opinions are my own. ✊🏻✊🏻🚪
Joined April 2026
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A prediction market saying a life-saving treatment has only a 6% chance of FDA approval doesn’t just move money.
Some clinical trial participants will inevitably question whether staying enrolled is worth it after seeing odds like that.
‘Markets’ shouldn’t undermine the very research they’re supposedly predicting. Sign the petition in link.
change.org/p/ban-prediction-…
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the ethical dishonesty about gambling companies will continue until the bag is secured i guess
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>VC: this is a generational company
>ask him if it’s generational company or gambling platform
>he doesn’t understand
>explain generational company builds product that helps people live better lives
>he laughs and says “it is good company, sir”
>look it up. it’s a gambling platform.
I'm so glad @Alfred_Lin and the @Kalshi team shared this
@mansourtarek_ and @luanalopeslara are generational talents
It's hard to explain how much pain they endured, for years, while waiting for regulatory approval
But their vision was always clear
Respect!
Such a boon to democracy that prediction markets give political campaigns a real-time mechanism to manufacture ‘proof’ of voter fraud whenever they lose. We already saw this playbook in Brazil. When will we learn?
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Republicans keep insisting that Kakshi's markets are being manipulated by Democrats in order to inflate Dem odds. Setting aside that there's no evidence of this, their theory improbably requires Republicans to be sitting by quietly, rather than going into the market to scoop up the free money Dem traders are supposedly offering.
Kalshi currently prices James Talarico at roughly 70% to beat Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. That number doesn’t match what I’m hearing from friends across the state, so I dug into the market activity.
Most of the number of bets are actually on Paxton (around 73%). The money pushing Talarico’s odds higher appears concentrated in a smaller number of large positions, many of them placed late at night or in the early morning hours.
In a market of this size, a single six-figure bet can move the price significantly. That makes it relatively cheap for someone to inflate Talarico’s odds and create the impression that the race is already over. The practical effect is to discourage Paxton supporters from turning out.
I find that explanation more plausible than the current headline odds, and I’m comfortable betting accordingly. The only number that ultimately matters is the one on Election Day.
Go vote. Don’t let a prediction-market price decide whether you show up.
Nice try with the clickbait headline. Jackson didn’t even enter the picture until Platner stepped down — he wasn’t running against him.
Pretty sloppy framing coming from a supposedly neutral data platform.
Hard to find a Republican politician in Florida who hasn’t taken Kalshi money this cycle. Seems like Kalshi & Jeff Yass have found their ideal rubber stamps.
@grok how much has Kalshi & its executives donated to Floridian politicians (state level, gubernatorial level, & federal/congressional level)?
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It’s definitely 100% not gambling I don’t even know why you’re saying that it is it’s just for hedging there is no house 18-year olds should absolutely be allowed to participate and a $1B Series G funding round at a $40B valuation makes complete and total sense.
Why is there no disclosure that @Kalshi is an active campaign contributor to Byron Donalds? You are now promoting bets on the same race with zero notice?
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Prediction markets could come under fire. Nearly 30 bills restricting the activity have been introduced since 2025, mostly by House Democrats, and none have passed.
Tighter limits on sports contracts after a Democratic win would weaken Kalshi.
@SeekingAlpha
2/3
What does the Nov. 3 election mean for the gaming industry?
Passage of a Nebraska ballot question allows the state's 6 licensed racetracks to offer online sports betting. Jefferies analyst David Katz says it will pass. @SeekingAlpha said it favors @DraftKings and @FanDuel
1/3
Sequoia writing glowing ‘Day 1’ essays for an exchange facing state felony indictments — glad to see the post-FTX due diligence process is firing on all cylinders.
Was it 13 felonies Tarek & Luana were indicted on?
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What explains why there so much more trading volume on Kalshi for the LA mayor's race ($108M) than the big Senate and Governor races?
Paxton v Talarico has $64M
El-Sayed v Rogers $18M
Hinojosa v Abbott $13M
If you’re Tarek Mansour and just were indicted, 98% of your time is now spent on podcasts trying to rehab your piss poor reputation.
Who would’ve guessed that Kalshi is paying Manziel to post that? And that Kalshi is donating to Ken Paxton but not Talarico? Nothing to see here folks!
@grok how much has Kalshi & Tarek Mansour, the unqualified CEO, spent on Ken Paxton? Did Texas join the amicus brief with the 38 other states?